CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSojka Pavilion, Lewisburg, PA
Old Dominion
Efficiency #242
2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf
@
Bucknell
Efficiency #334
2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
74.2
win 53%
Projected
73.3
win 47%
No line posted yet.
Model: ODU −0.9 · total 147.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Bucknell 68.1, Old Dominion 69.4 → 69.1 possessions
+1.8
Bucknell offense vs Old Dominion defense
−3.7
Old Dominion offense vs Bucknell defense
+1.2
Projected total
147.5
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Bucknell offense vs Old Dominion defense
−3.7
Old Dominion offense vs Bucknell defense
−1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Old Dominion by 0.9
0.9
Old Dominion side ◂▸ Bucknell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bucknell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Old Dominion is the faster team (70.3, #83 of 365) and Bucknell the slower (66.9, #247). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.5
model
Projected team totals
74.2 / 73.3
Old Dominion / Bucknell
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#94
Old Dominion
68.1#202
Bucknell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBucknell
Where Bucknell struggles: shooting
Bucknell shoots an effective 48.5% (#304); Old Dominion allows 50.8% (#145). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bucknell, Bucknell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Old Dominion at about 40.9% of its shots from three, Bucknell about 40.1%.
AdvantageOld Dominion
Where Old Dominion scores: shooting
Old Dominion shoots an effective 50.7% (#203); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassOld Dominion
Old Dominion gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Old Dominion's offense.
ClashOld Dominion
Style clash: 3-point volume
Old Dominion rarely shoots threes (36.2% of its shots); Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Old Dominion has the ball
OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #203
54.7% #323
+2.0 pt/100
15.4% #100
17.9% #99
+0.0 pt/100
26.0% #323
31.3% #216
-1.6 pt/100
34.7% #189
35.3% #186
-0.0 pt/100
73.3% #161
—
+0.1 pt/100
Old Dominion net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100
Bucknell has the ball
OffenseOld Dominion allowsvs D1 avg
48.5% #304
50.8% #145
-2.7 pt/100
19.0% #320
14.5% #323
+0.2 pt/100
27.0% #295
30.3% #176
-1.5 pt/100
29.8% #314
42.0% #322
+0.2 pt/100
76.8% #35
—
+0.4 pt/100
Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Old Dominionoffense vsBucknelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Old Dominion shoots
Bucknell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.0%#11760.3%#24558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.8%#31845.5%#30939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.0%#29040.7%#26838.0%
Three36.0%#6037.0%#34433.7%
Bucknelloffense vsOld Dominiondefense
Share of shots by zone
Bucknell shoots
Old Dominion allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.8%#20161.6%#29058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.2%#26528.6%#939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33640.5%#25738.0%
Three30.6%#32832.0%#6233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Old Dominion
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#326 of 365
Off reb %
26.0%
#323
Def reb %
69.7%
#176
Turnover %
15.4%
#100
Forced TO %
14.5%
#323
FT rate
34.7%
#189
FT allowed
42.0%
#322
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Bucknell
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#295
Def reb %
68.7%
#216
Turnover %
19.0%
#320
Forced TO %
17.9%
#99
FT rate
29.8%
#314
FT allowed
35.3%
#186
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed0.0

Bucknell has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.4 (#310 of 365) to Old Dominion’s −3.8 (#326).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Old Dominion2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Jordan BattleGSr6'2"33-3332.815.44.43.02.054.1%43.5%5.685.0%25.0%
0KC ShawGSr6'4"29-2931.216.84.32.22.146.9%8.7%0.872.3%33.6%
6LJ ThomasGSr6'2"30-2527.611.33.63.32.048.2%29.0%1.074.5%26.0%
4Robert Davis Jr.GJr6'6"26-2029.69.62.51.41.144.7%33.0%6.981.5%21.7%
13Jared TurnerFJr6'8"33-520.96.13.60.90.456.5%38.2%4.464.3%15.5%
35Caelum Swanton-RodgerFSr7'0"31-3120.58.24.90.81.463.3%0.0%0.158.9%22.0%
2Zacch WigginsGFr6'4"33-1018.66.12.51.10.654.7%37.3%1.571.2%17.8%
3Scottie HubbardGSo6'6"32-916.03.12.90.50.745.8%32.4%2.175.0%14.0%
7Drew McKennaGSo6'7"26-011.04.02.50.50.545.3%25.0%1.176.2%23.2%
8Donovan RaymondFSo6'10"31-26.51.51.40.20.366.7%—0.045.8%13.4%
42Ben NaceyFSo6'8"9-07.62.31.60.30.158.3%—0.058.3%15.4%
11Rieco HellamsGJr5'10"12-02.80.30.30.30.225.0%0.0%0.1100.0%12.0%
30Cooper JonesGJr6'2"3-14.71.00.00.31.030.0%20.0%1.7—33.1%
15CJ ParkerGSo6'6"3-03.30.02.00.30.00.0%0.0%0.3—5.7%
10Elijah FlowersFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Stephaun WalkerFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Old DominionBucknell
Efficiency
106.9
101.2
110.4
111.7
69.4
68.1
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
48.5%
48.8%
50.4%
36.0%
30.6%
73.3%
76.8%
34.7%
29.8%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
19.0%
14.5%
17.9%
26.0%
27.0%
30.3%
31.3%
9.2%
11.1%
11.1%
11.5%
Style
36.2%
42.7%
40.5%
43.4%
12.1%
9.9%
49.0%
54.0%
31.6%
24.0%
Roster
3.17
2.30
6'5.3"
6'4.5"
—
92.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Old Dominion
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Bucknell
Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%
Lost
  • Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami
Added
  • Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.