CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceDaskalakis Athletic Center, Philadelphia, PA

Colgate

Efficiency #223

2025-26: 18-15 · 12-8 conf

Drexel

Efficiency #214

2025-26: 17-16 · 11-9 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · TBD

68.3

win 36%

Projected

72.5

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: DREX −4.3 · total 140.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Drexel 66.3, Colgate 68.0 → 65.9 possessions

−5.2

Drexel offense vs Colgate defense

−0.8

Colgate offense vs Drexel defense

−1.3

Projected total

140.8

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Drexel offense vs Colgate defense

−0.8

Colgate offense vs Drexel defense

+1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Drexel by 4.3

4.3

Colgate side ◂▸ Drexel side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.9 against a projected 140.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Drexel.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colgate is the faster team (66.9, #246 of 365) and Drexel the slower (65.2, #326). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.8

model

Projected team totals

68.3 / 72.5

Colgate / Drexel

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.0#213

Colgate

66.3#331

Drexel

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Drexel averages 65.2 possessions per 40, Colgate 66.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashColgate

Style match: 3-point volume

Colgate rarely shoots threes (35.0% of its shots); Drexel runs teams off the line (34.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.4% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Drexel's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colgate at about 32.4% of its shots from three, Drexel about 41.3%.

AdvantageColgate

Where Colgate scores: ball control

Colgate turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#47); Drexel forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#195). Expect about 15.3%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

Colgate has the ball

OffenseDrexel allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #91

47.1% #22

-1.4 pt/100

14.6% #47

16.4% #195

+1.8 pt/100

26.6% #309

31.0% #202

-1.5 pt/100

29.7% #316

35.4% #192

-0.3 pt/100

74.7% #97

—

+0.2 pt/100

Colgate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Drexel has the ball

OffenseColgate allowsvs D1 avg

50.7% #204

52.2% #224

+0.2 pt/100

19.0% #321

15.3% #266

-0.4 pt/100

31.2% #156

29.3% #125

+0.0 pt/100

31.6% #265

33.8% #145

-0.3 pt/100

66.5% #348

—

-0.5 pt/100

Drexel net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Colgateoffense vsDrexeldefense

Share of shots by zone

Colgate shoots

37.9

6.0

21.2

34.9

Drexel allows

37.9

8.2

19.7

34.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.3%#155	53.4%#28	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.3%#98	37.2%#119	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.8%#18	39.2%#210	38.0%
Three	35.6%#81	30.3%#15	33.7%

Drexeloffense vsColgatedefense

Share of shots by zone

Drexel shoots

36.2

7.8

15.9

40.2

Colgate allows

38.5

6.2

13.8

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#268	59.1%#193	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.7%#181	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.9%#315	38.5%#178	38.0%
Three	35.5%#90	34.8%#238	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Colgate

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#247 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#309

Def reb %

70.7%

#125

Turnover %

14.6%

#47

Forced TO %

15.3%

#266

FT rate

29.7%

#316

FT allowed

33.8%

#145

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.4

Drexel

−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#286 of 365

Off reb %

31.2%

#156

Def reb %

69.0%

#202

Turnover %

19.0%

#321

Forced TO %

16.4%

#195

FT rate

31.6%

#265

FT allowed

35.4%

#192

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed0.0

Colgate has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#247 of 365) to Drexel’s −2.5 (#286).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Colgate2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jalen Cox	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	34.2	17.9	5.2	5.3	2.3	54.5%	36.5%	1.7	85.0%	30.5%
22	Andrew Alekseyenko	F	Fr	6'8"	33-33	29.7	14.8	6.7	2.4	2.3	55.4%	38.3%	3.2	78.1%	30.2%
33	Sam Wright	F	Jr	6'9"	33-33	25.6	12.3	4.4	0.8	1.0	55.9%	31.2%	3.8	60.2%	27.7%
4	Josh Ahayere	G	So	6'3"	32-24	25.3	7.8	3.6	1.4	0.8	55.1%	36.9%	2.0	74.0%	17.5%
13	Kyle Carlesimo	G	Sr	6'2"	33-2	24.5	7.8	2.5	0.9	0.7	51.7%	36.0%	5.0	84.6%	19.9%
23	Cooper Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	30-0	12.4	1.7	1.7	0.7	0.4	61.5%	—	0.0	30.0%	8.8%
15	Ayomi Odetoyinbo	F	Fr	6'10"	33-0	10.9	2.1	2.6	0.3	0.4	57.4%	0.0%	0.0	54.5%	12.1%
1	Brady Cummins	G	Sr	6'6"	18-9	16.8	4.2	1.1	0.8	0.7	40.8%	34.3%	1.9	90.0%	18.4%
0	Ethan Brown	F	So	6'10"	17-0	7.6	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.3	31.6%	25.0%	0.5	82.4%	15.4%
9	Cameron Brennan	F	So	7'0"	13-0	4.7	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.5	31.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	23.5%
5	Charlie Pugh	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	66.7%	50.0%	0.5	—	15.6%
8	Jonathan Niv	G	Fr	6'5"	8-0	3.1	1.9	0.6	0.0	0.3	81.3%	60.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.5%
2	Blake Forrest	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Parker Jones	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Stevie Clark	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Drexel2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Shane Blakeney	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	33.7	14.2	5.1	2.5	2.2	49.5%	35.9%	5.6	67.1%	28.9%
1	Victor Panov	F	Sr	6'7"	31-25	28.7	9.9	4.9	1.6	1.3	55.1%	37.3%	4.8	69.0%	21.2%
7	Eli Beard	G	Sr	5'11"	33-30	26.5	9.0	2.2	2.1	1.3	55.8%	41.3%	4.7	81.5%	20.7%
5	Josh Reed	G	So	6'2"	33-1	18.9	7.9	3.2	1.2	1.1	44.4%	25.0%	1.0	59.0%	30.7%
13	Garfield Turner	F	Sr	6'8"	30-4	19.6	7.1	5.1	1.1	1.0	62.3%	—	0.0	56.5%	21.3%
22	Villiam Garcia Adsten	G	Jr	6'8"	32-10	17.6	3.5	3.8	1.3	1.3	38.8%	29.8%	1.5	54.8%	19.4%
11	Martin de LaPorterie	F	Jr	7'1"	33-29	13.0	3.0	3.1	0.3	0.9	51.2%	33.3%	0.5	70.0%	17.5%
23	Dillon Tingler	G	So	6'7"	29-0	9.9	3.6	1.9	0.4	0.7	52.0%	37.8%	1.3	92.9%	22.5%
33	Ralph Akuta	F	So	7'1"	29-0	4.9	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.4	58.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	22.3%
25	Max Davis	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	3.0	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	100.0%	66.7%	0.8	—	26.8%
24	Ignacio Campoy Galvez	F	Fr	6'7"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
6	Clem Edomwonyin	F	So	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Moses Hipps	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colgate2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jalen Cox	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	34.2	17.9	5.2	5.3	2.3	54.5%	36.5%	1.7	85.0%	30.5%
22	Andrew Alekseyenko	F	Fr	6'8"	33-33	29.7	14.8	6.7	2.4	2.3	55.4%	38.3%	3.2	78.1%	30.2%
33	Sam Wright	F	Jr	6'9"	33-33	25.6	12.3	4.4	0.8	1.0	55.9%	31.2%	3.8	60.2%	27.7%
4	Josh Ahayere	G	So	6'3"	32-24	25.3	7.8	3.6	1.4	0.8	55.1%	36.9%	2.0	74.0%	17.5%
13	Kyle Carlesimo	G	Sr	6'2"	33-2	24.5	7.8	2.5	0.9	0.7	51.7%	36.0%	5.0	84.6%	19.9%
23	Cooper Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	30-0	12.4	1.7	1.7	0.7	0.4	61.5%	—	0.0	30.0%	8.8%
15	Ayomi Odetoyinbo	F	Fr	6'10"	33-0	10.9	2.1	2.6	0.3	0.4	57.4%	0.0%	0.0	54.5%	12.1%
1	Brady Cummins	G	Sr	6'6"	18-9	16.8	4.2	1.1	0.8	0.7	40.8%	34.3%	1.9	90.0%	18.4%
0	Ethan Brown	F	So	6'10"	17-0	7.6	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.3	31.6%	25.0%	0.5	82.4%	15.4%
9	Cameron Brennan	F	So	7'0"	13-0	4.7	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.5	31.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	23.5%
5	Charlie Pugh	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	66.7%	50.0%	0.5	—	15.6%
8	Jonathan Niv	G	Fr	6'5"	8-0	3.1	1.9	0.6	0.0	0.3	81.3%	60.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.5%
2	Blake Forrest	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Parker Jones	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Stevie Clark	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Colgate

Against the spread

Season

12-19

Home

4-9

Road

7-9

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

9-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 69–76	−2.0	L−9.0	146.0	U145	100.7	110.9	68.5
Mar 5	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	W 90–77	−5.5	W+7.5	154.0	O167	139.5	119.4	64.5
Feb 28	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 69–85	+6.5	L−9.5	142.0	O154	103.7	127.8	66.5
Feb 25	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 69–70	−8.5	L−9.5	147.5	U139	110.6	112.2	62.4
Feb 21	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	W 101–98 OT	−8.5	L−5.5	149.5	O199	115.7	112.3	87.3
Feb 16	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 58–85	−2.0	L−29.0	146.0	U143	101.3	148.4	57.3
Feb 14	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 80–84 OT	+2.0	L−2.0	139.0	O164	111.8	117.4	71.6
Feb 11	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 74–70	−8.0	L−4.0	143.0	O144	108.1	102.3	68.5
Feb 7	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 78–59	−5.0	W+14.0	141.5	U137	106.3	80.4	73.4
Feb 4	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 69–55	−10.0	W+4.0	149.5	U124	107.3	85.6	64.3

Drexel

Against the spread

Season

16-13-3

Home

10-4-1

Road

5-7-2

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −1.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.1

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	MonmouthAdjEM #173	N	L 57–65	+4.0	L−4.0	137.5	U122	88.2	100.6	64.6
Mar 7	NortheasternAdjEM #274	N	W 84–77	−5.0	W+2.0	140.5	O161	122.2	112.0	68.8
Mar 3	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 51–62	+8.5	L−2.5	133.0	U113	89.9	109.3	56.7
Feb 26	CampbellAdjEM #208	H	W 65–60	−1.0	W+4.0	141.5	U125	102.0	94.2	63.7
Feb 22	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	W 68–62	+2.5	W+8.5	131.0	U130	102.9	93.9	66.1
Feb 19	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 70–61	+1.0	W+10.0	145.0	U131	104.4	91.0	67.0
Feb 16	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 69–72	+3.0	P0.0	136.5	O141	105.5	110.1	65.4
Feb 12	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 73–93	−1.0	L−21.0	134.0	O166	101.8	129.7	71.7
Feb 7	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 82–77	+5.0	W+10.0	138.0	O159	121.3	113.9	67.6
Feb 5	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	L 60–81	+4.0	L−17.0	141.5	U141	86.9	117.3	69.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ColgateDrexel

Efficiency

108.6

104.5

111.2

106.3

68.0

66.3

—

Shooting

53.3%

50.7%

53.2%

49.0%

35.6%

35.5%

74.7%

66.5%

29.7%

31.6%

Ball control & glass

14.6%

19.0%

15.3%

16.4%

26.6%

31.2%

29.3%

31.0%

8.4%

11.1%

6.3%

9.3%

Style

35.0%

40.0%

44.4%

42.7%

12.6%

11.0%

51.4%

53.6%

29.0%

33.8%

Roster

2.54

3.24

6'5.6"

85.6%

83.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Colgate

Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 88.2%

Lost

Ben Tweedy 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Parker Jones no D1 minutes last season
Stevie Clark no D1 minutes last season
Blake Forrest no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Drexel

Returning minutes: 83.7%Returning production: 85.1%

Lost

Kevon Vanderhorst 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Iona
Horace Simmons Jr. 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Moses Hipps no D1 minutes last season
Clem Edomwonyin no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 11	2025-26	Drexel 83 – 90 Colgate

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.