CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceKFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
@
Louisville
Efficiency #14
2025-26: 24-11 · 12-8 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
66.9
win 5%
Projected
85.7
win 95%
No line posted yet.
Model: LOU −18.8 · total 152.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Louisville 69.9, Morehead St 67.0 → 68.6 possessions
+0.5
Louisville offense vs Morehead St defense
+9.3
Morehead St offense vs Louisville defense
−5.5
Projected total
152.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Louisville offense vs Morehead St defense
+9.3
Morehead St offense vs Louisville defense
+5.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Louisville by 18.8
18.8
Morehead St side ◂▸ Louisville side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.5 against a projected 152.6, and the margin steps add to +18.7 against +18.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Louisville.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Louisville is the faster team (71.0, #54 of 365) and Morehead St the slower (66.8, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.6
model
Projected team totals
66.9 / 85.7
Morehead St / Louisville
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#288
Morehead St
69.9#60
Louisville
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St struggles: shooting
Morehead St shoots an effective 49.2% (#285); Louisville allows 48.7% (#54). Expect about 48.7%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLouisville
Where Louisville scores: shooting
Louisville shoots an effective 56.5% (#14); Morehead St allows 50.2% (#109). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLouisville
Louisville owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Louisville's offense.
ClashMorehead St
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Morehead St (#27 in offensive rebounding) against Louisville (#50 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.7%. Historically Morehead St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
Morehead St has the ball
OffenseLouisville allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
48.7% #54
-3.6 pt/100
18.0% #272
16.7% #172
-0.8 pt/100
35.8% #27
27.5% #50
+1.4 pt/100
37.7% #109
33.0% #130
+0.0 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.8 pts/100
Louisville has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
56.5% #14
50.2% #109
+3.5 pt/100
16.8% #186
15.4% #258
+1.0 pt/100
32.8% #93
35.8% #351
+2.6 pt/100
33.1% #236
35.6% #201
-0.1 pt/100
76.1% #51
—
+0.3 pt/100
Louisville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMorehead Stoffense vsLouisvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
39.8
8.7
21.1
30.4
Louisville allows
32.4
9.0
19.1
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#270 | 58.8%#181 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 39.2%#162 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#86 | 32.9%#28 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#281 | 32.3%#76 | 33.7% |
Louisvilleoffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisville shoots
36.2
5.3
6.1
52.5
Morehead St allows
39.7
6.2
15.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.8%#41 | 54.7%#55 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.4%#36 | 34.3%#49 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.8%#265 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.0%#58 | 34.5%#221 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMorehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Louisville
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#104 of 365
Off reb %
32.8%
#93
Def reb %
72.5%
#50
Turnover %
16.8%
#186
Forced TO %
16.7%
#172
FT rate
33.1%
#236
FT allowed
33.0%
#130
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers0.0
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Louisville has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#104 of 365) to Morehead St’s −1.0 (#234).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Louisville2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Flory Bidungaat Kansas | F | Jr | 6'9" | 35-34 | 31.6 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 64.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 65.4% | 21.9% | |
| 11 | De'Shayne Montgomeryat Dayton | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 30.6 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 56.2% | 33.5% | 4.3 | 78.9% | 25.7% | |
| 53 | LJ Wellsat N Kentucky | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 30.3 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 57.9% | 28.3% | 1.6 | 67.5% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | Seth Trimbleat North Carolina | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-24 | 32.5 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50.8% | 28.6% | 2.6 | 66.7% | 25.4% | |
| 14 | Adrian Wooley | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-16 | 22.5 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 53.9% | 35.0% | 3.3 | 77.8% | 21.8% | |
| 7 | Alvaro Folgueirasat Iowa | F | Sr | 6'10" | 37-1 | 20.6 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 58.6% | 33.3% | 2.9 | 76.7% | 24.8% | |
| 3 | Jackson Shelstadat Oregon | G | Sr | 6'1" | 12-12 | 34.9 | 15.6 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 48.8% | 31.4% | 8.8 | 84.6% | 28.0% | |
| 1 | Karter Knoxat Arkansas | G | Jr | 6'6" | 22-18 | 22.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 55.4% | 37.7% | 3.1 | 72.7% | 20.1% | |
| 45 | Gabe Dynesat USC | C | Sr | 7'5" | 30-6 | 11.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 78.8% | — | 0.0 | 35.3% | 12.8% | |
| 33 | Will Hanke | G | So | 6'4" | 9-0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 16.1% | |
| 6 | Boyuan Zhang | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Isaac Ellis | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Obinna Ekezie Jr. | C | Fr | 7'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Flory Bidunga (from Kansas), Gabe Dynes (from USC), Alvaro Folgueiras (from Iowa), De'Shayne Montgomery (from Dayton), Jackson Shelstad (from Oregon), Seth Trimble (from North Carolina), LJ Wells (from N Kentucky), Karter Knox (from Arkansas)
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Morehead St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-3
Road
10-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.9
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Tennessee St | N | L 67–93 | +5.0 | L−21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 96.0 | 133.2 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | SE Missouri | N | W 66–61 | +4.0 | W+9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 102.1 | 94.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 26 | Little Rock | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 117.8 | 108.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | S Indiana | H | W 64–63 | −7.5 | L−6.5 | 142.5 | U127 | 105.7 | 104.0 | 60.5 |
| Feb 21 | W Illinois | A | W 81–59 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 127.6 | 92.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | E Illinois | A | W 73–70 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Tennessee St | H | W 94–86 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 135.8 | 124.3 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 73–66 | −4.0 | W+3.0 | 144.0 | U139 | 117.1 | 105.9 | 62.3 |
| Feb 7 | UT Martin | A | W 61–55 | +9.0 | W+15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 101.3 | 91.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | SE Missouri | A | L 70–82 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 99.9 | 117.1 | 70.1 |
Louisville
Against the spread
Season
15-18-2
Home
9-7-1
Road
3-8
Last 10
1-7-2
avg cover −4.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 0 of 8 as a favorite, 2 pushes
Over / under
Season
14-21
Home
6-11
Road
6-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −4.5
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | #3Michigan St | N | L 69–77 | +5.0 | L−3.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 103.1 | 115.0 | 66.9 |
| Mar 19 | #11South Florida | N | W 83–79 | −4.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | O162 | 110.3 | 105.0 | 75.2 |
| Mar 12 | Miami | N | L 73–78 | −1.5 | L−6.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 106.7 | 114.0 | 68.4 |
| Mar 11 | SMU | N | W 62–58 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 163.5 | U120 | 100.9 | 94.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar 7 | #22Miami | A | W 92–89 | +1.5 | W+4.5 | 155.5 | O181 | 142.7 | 138.1 | 64.5 |
| Mar 3 | Syracuse | H | W 77–62 | −15.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | U139 | 113.8 | 91.6 | 67.7 |
| Feb 28 | Clemson | A | L 75–80 | −2.0 | L−7.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 107.3 | 114.4 | 69.9 |
| Feb 23 | #18North Carolina | A | L 74–77 | −3.5 | L−6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 111.1 | 115.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Georgia Tech | H | W 87–70 | −23.5 | L−6.5 | 166.5 | U157 | 118.2 | 95.1 | 73.6 |
| Feb 17 | SMU | A | L 85–95 | −4.0 | L−14.0 | 168.0 | O180 | 111.2 | 124.3 | 76.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMorehead StLouisville
Efficiency
107.5
117.8
112.8
101.5
67.0
69.9
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
56.5%
49.7%
59.4%
32.0%
36.0%
74.1%
76.1%
37.7%
33.1%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
16.8%
15.4%
16.7%
35.8%
32.8%
35.8%
27.5%
10.6%
9.5%
9.2%
12.5%
Style
30.5%
52.9%
45.0%
39.1%
12.1%
8.6%
47.4%
59.6%
38.1%
31.7%
Roster
2.81
3.65
6'4.7"
6'6.6"
—
11.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMorehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Louisville
Returning minutes: 11.4%Returning production: 10.0%
Lost
- Ryan Conwell 30.0 mpg, 18.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaac McKneely 29.0 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- J'Vonne Hadley 27.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sananda Fru 22.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mikel Brown Jr. 17.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Khani Rooths 14.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Added
- Flory Bidunga from Kansas · 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
- De'Shayne Montgomery from Dayton · 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
- LJ Wells from N Kentucky · 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Seth Trimble from North Carolina · 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Alvaro Folgueiras from Iowa · 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg last season
- Karter Knox from Arkansas · 13.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
Returns 11% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.