CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLeavey Center, Santa Clara, CA

Sacramento St

Efficiency #280

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-13 conf

Santa Clara

Efficiency #33

2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · TBD

72.1

win 7%

Projected

89.3

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: SCU −17.2 · total 161.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Santa Clara 69.5, Sacramento St 71.1 → 72.2 possessions

+8.5

Santa Clara offense vs Sacramento St defense

+8.8

Sacramento St offense vs Santa Clara defense

−4.2

Projected total

161.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Santa Clara offense vs Sacramento St defense

+8.8

Sacramento St offense vs Santa Clara defense

+4.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

Santa Clara by 17.2

17.2

Sacramento St side ◂▸ Santa Clara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 161.3 against a projected 161.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Santa Clara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacramento St is the faster team (72.3, #19 of 365) and Santa Clara the slower (69.5, #113). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

161.4

model

Projected team totals

72.1 / 89.3

Sacramento St / Santa Clara

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.1#14

Sacramento St

69.5#84

Santa Clara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSanta Clara

Where Santa Clara scores: shooting

Santa Clara shoots an effective 54.4% (#53); Sacramento St allows 55.0% (#331). Expect about 55.0%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Santa Clara averages 69.5 possessions per 40, Sacramento St 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassSanta Clara

Santa Clara owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.1% is worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions for Santa Clara's offense.

AdvantageSacramento St

Where Sacramento St struggles: shooting

Sacramento St shoots an effective 47.0% (#337); Santa Clara allows 52.0% (#213). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSanta Clara

Style match: 3-point volume

Santa Clara takes 45.0% of its shots from three; Sacramento St lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.6% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseSanta Clara

Santa Clara's ball-hawking

Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.3% of Sacramento St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Sacramento St has the ball

OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg

47.0% #337

52.0% #213

-3.0 pt/100

14.1% #26

19.9% #25

-0.6 pt/100

25.2% #336

32.1% #262

-1.7 pt/100

41.2% #41

38.2% #264

+0.6 pt/100

78.1% #15

—

+0.5 pt/100

Sacramento St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.1 pts/100

Santa Clara has the ball

OffenseSacramento St allowsvs D1 avg

54.4% #53

55.0% #331

+5.3 pt/100

15.4% #99

17.1% #139

+0.7 pt/100

36.4% #20

33.4% #306

+3.5 pt/100

25.5% #363

36.2% #216

-0.5 pt/100

74.4% #106

—

+0.2 pt/100

Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Sacramento Stoffense vsSanta Claradefense

Share of shots by zone

Sacramento St shoots

37.7

5.7

20.6

36.0

Santa Clara allows

43.0

5.2

13.7

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.7%#306	61.4%#281	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.1%#301	38.4%#144	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.5%#276	32.9%#26	38.0%
Three	31.9%#284	33.1%#127	33.7%

Santa Claraoffense vsSacramento Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Santa Clara shoots

35.1

10.4

10.2

44.2

Sacramento St allows

42.1

5.7

8.2

44.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.3%#84	60.1%#230	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.2%#37	43.3%#256	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.1%#24	42.6%#322	38.0%
Three	34.9%#125	35.2%#257	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Sacramento St

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#141 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#336

Def reb %

66.6%

#306

Turnover %

14.1%

#26

Forced TO %

17.1%

#139

FT rate

41.2%

#41

FT allowed

36.2%

#216

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Santa Clara

+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365

Off reb %

36.4%

#20

Def reb %

67.9%

#262

Turnover %

15.4%

#99

Forced TO %

19.9%

#25

FT rate

25.5%

#363

FT allowed

38.2%

#264

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.9

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Santa Clara has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#123 of 365) to Sacramento St’s +0.9 (#141).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Sacramento St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
16	Prophet Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	30-29	35.4	18.2	7.4	3.7	2.3	52.8%	39.2%	4.2	74.2%	28.5%
32	Mark Lavrenov	F	Fr	6'8"	31-21	26.0	9.9	7.0	0.5	1.0	46.9%	28.6%	1.1	82.4%	20.9%
4	Jahni Summers	G	Jr	6'6"	31-30	25.8	9.9	2.5	0.9	1.1	57.5%	42.2%	4.4	75.0%	20.1%
1	Mikey Williams	G	So	6'3"	21-21	35.0	17.1	3.0	4.5	2.9	40.1%	26.5%	4.0	83.0%	31.2%
23	Arman Madi	G	So	6'6"	30-5	21.9	7.0	2.9	1.5	0.8	50.9%	28.6%	2.6	73.2%	18.1%
8	Shaqir O'Neal	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	19.4	5.3	3.2	0.5	0.7	47.9%	32.7%	1.6	77.0%	15.6%
5	Jayden Teat	G	So	6'2"	29-1	14.6	6.0	1.6	0.9	0.7	43.6%	34.7%	3.5	82.8%	27.1%
2	Taj Glover	G	Fr	6'3"	29-6	13.6	4.5	1.6	1.2	0.4	41.9%	23.1%	1.3	75.0%	19.9%
3	Romari Robinson	G	Fr	6'4"	24-1	11.0	1.8	1.4	0.5	0.5	40.2%	26.3%	0.8	60.0%	12.3%
0	Brandon Gardner	F	So	6'8"	16-4	15.6	4.1	2.8	0.4	0.4	46.5%	22.7%	1.4	86.7%	15.4%
9	Jeremiah Cherry	F	Sr	6'11"	6-6	31.2	15.5	8.2	1.7	3.7	48.7%	12.5%	1.3	69.2%	32.2%
34	Jeremiah Nyarko	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	5.0	0.8	1.4	0.0	0.2	33.3%	—	0.0	—	15.0%
13	Isaiah Bronson	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	12.0%
7	Zach Anderson	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Santa Clara2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Christian Hammond	G	So	6'4"	34-34	30.3	15.6	3.0	2.5	1.7	54.9%	39.3%	4.0	78.7%	28.7%
44	Jake Ensminger	G	Jr	6'9"	32-32	28.8	6.5	5.5	2.9	0.9	66.1%	39.8%	2.8	66.7%	11.6%
0	Brenton Knapper	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	21.5	7.5	1.8	2.2	1.2	45.6%	27.4%	3.4	79.2%	23.4%
2	Sash Gavalyugov	G	Fr	6'3"	35-2	20.0	9.0	1.9	2.7	1.4	51.6%	35.8%	5.3	72.0%	28.4%
15	Thierry Darlan	G	Jr	6'8"	35-1	17.9	6.1	3.6	0.9	1.4	50.3%	33.9%	3.4	88.6%	22.0%
7	KJ Cochran	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	11.8	4.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	51.4%	27.1%	2.5	65.2%	23.5%
3	Francis Chukwudebelu	C	Fr	6'10"	24-0	6.8	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.0	52.0%	40.0%	0.2	50.0%	11.5%
50	Brendan Yarusso	G	Sr	6'1"	8-0	1.3	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	36.4%	1.4	100.0%	77.2%
51	Juan Reyna	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	—	—	0.0	—	27.7%
4	Brad Longcor III	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Chris Tadjo	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Gehrig Normand	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
54	Malachi Douyon	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Noah Badibanga	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Sacramento St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
16	Prophet Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	30-29	35.4	18.2	7.4	3.7	2.3	52.8%	39.2%	4.2	74.2%	28.5%
32	Mark Lavrenov	F	Fr	6'8"	31-21	26.0	9.9	7.0	0.5	1.0	46.9%	28.6%	1.1	82.4%	20.9%
4	Jahni Summers	G	Jr	6'6"	31-30	25.8	9.9	2.5	0.9	1.1	57.5%	42.2%	4.4	75.0%	20.1%
1	Mikey Williams	G	So	6'3"	21-21	35.0	17.1	3.0	4.5	2.9	40.1%	26.5%	4.0	83.0%	31.2%
23	Arman Madi	G	So	6'6"	30-5	21.9	7.0	2.9	1.5	0.8	50.9%	28.6%	2.6	73.2%	18.1%
8	Shaqir O'Neal	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	19.4	5.3	3.2	0.5	0.7	47.9%	32.7%	1.6	77.0%	15.6%
5	Jayden Teat	G	So	6'2"	29-1	14.6	6.0	1.6	0.9	0.7	43.6%	34.7%	3.5	82.8%	27.1%
2	Taj Glover	G	Fr	6'3"	29-6	13.6	4.5	1.6	1.2	0.4	41.9%	23.1%	1.3	75.0%	19.9%
3	Romari Robinson	G	Fr	6'4"	24-1	11.0	1.8	1.4	0.5	0.5	40.2%	26.3%	0.8	60.0%	12.3%
0	Brandon Gardner	F	So	6'8"	16-4	15.6	4.1	2.8	0.4	0.4	46.5%	22.7%	1.4	86.7%	15.4%
9	Jeremiah Cherry	F	Sr	6'11"	6-6	31.2	15.5	8.2	1.7	3.7	48.7%	12.5%	1.3	69.2%	32.2%
34	Jeremiah Nyarko	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	5.0	0.8	1.4	0.0	0.2	33.3%	—	0.0	—	15.0%
13	Isaiah Bronson	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	12.0%
7	Zach Anderson	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Sacramento St

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

8-3

Road

4-11-1

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −1.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-14

Home

7-4

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.1

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	IdahoAdjEM #156	N	L 45–68	+7.0	L−16.0	158.5	U113	65.0	98.2	69.3
Mar 2	Idaho StAdjEM #253	H	W 83–65	+1.0	W+19.0	160.5	U148	118.7	92.9	69.9
Feb 28	Montana StAdjEM #130	A	L 61–82	+7.0	L−14.0	158.5	U143	91.9	123.5	66.4
Feb 26	MontanaAdjEM #207	A	L 73–81	+8.0	P0.0	161.5	U154	101.4	112.5	72.0
Feb 21	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	L 80–86	+4.0	L−2.0	165.0	O166	109.2	117.4	73.3
Feb 19	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	H	L 94–102	+3.0	L−5.0	161.5	O196	129.2	140.2	72.8
Feb 14	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	A	L 74–79	+1.5	L−3.5	155.0	U153	104.2	111.2	71.0
Feb 12	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 79–95	+10.5	L−5.5	165.0	O174	99.4	119.6	79.4
Feb 7	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	L 73–74	+4.0	W+3.0	150.5	U147	106.9	108.3	68.3
Feb 2	Weber StAdjEM #203	H	W 104–90	−1.5	W+12.5	162.5	O194	133.3	115.3	78.0

Santa Clara

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

9-5

Road

6-5

Last 10

3-7

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-15

Home

8-6

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.6

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 84–89 OT	+3.5	L−1.5	157.5	O173	112.6	119.3	74.6
Mar 10	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	N	L 68–79	+8.0	L−3.0	156.5	U147	112.7	130.9	60.4
Mar 9	#21Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	N	W 76–71	+4.5	W+9.5	150.0	U147	122.9	114.8	61.8
Mar 8	PacificAdjEM #126	N	W 76–68	−9.5	L−1.5	148.0	U144	128.4	114.9	59.2
Feb 28	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	W 93–72	−16.5	W+4.5	153.0	O165	135.8	105.2	68.5
Feb 25	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	A	L 67–86	+5.5	L−13.5	154.0	U153	102.4	131.5	65.4
Feb 21	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	A	W 94–73	−6.5	W+14.5	159.0	O167	125.9	97.8	74.7
Feb 14	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	L 86–94	+5.0	L−3.0	158.5	O180	112.6	123.1	76.4
Feb 11	Seattle UAdjEM #125	H	W 84–72	−12.5	L−0.5	147.0	O156	122.8	105.2	68.4
Feb 7	Washington StAdjEM #174	A	W 96–92	−8.5	L−4.5	160.5	O188	135.5	129.8	70.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Sacramento StSanta Clara

Efficiency

105.8

117.3

111.9

105.4

71.1

69.5

—

Shooting

47.0%

54.4%

46.6%

56.1%

31.9%

34.9%

78.1%

74.4%

41.2%

25.5%

Ball control & glass

14.1%

15.4%

17.1%

19.9%

25.2%

36.4%

33.4%

32.1%

9.2%

8.5%

9.0%

Style

35.6%

45.0%

40.4%

43.7%

16.8%

15.2%

48.9%

55.0%

29.5%

35.7%

Roster

2.49

2.38

6'5.3"

6'5.1"

—

65.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Sacramento St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Santa Clara

Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%

Lost

Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn

Added

Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.