CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLionTree Arena, San Diego, CA

Fresno St

Efficiency #169

2025-26: 13-19 · 7-14 conf

UC San Diego

Efficiency #121

2025-26: 23-11 · 13-9 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · 10:00 PM ET

68.6

win 32%

Projected

74.0

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: UCSD −5.4 · total 142.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UC San Diego 68.2, Fresno St 68.9 → 68.8 possessions

+1.1

UC San Diego offense vs Fresno St defense

−2.6

Fresno St offense vs UC San Diego defense

−4.1

Projected total

142.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UC San Diego offense vs Fresno St defense

−2.6

Fresno St offense vs UC San Diego defense

+4.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

UC San Diego by 5.4

5.4

Fresno St side ◂▸ UC San Diego side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.5 against +5.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC San Diego.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC San Diego is the faster team (69.7, #102 of 365) and Fresno St the slower (69.4, #124). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.6

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 74.0

Fresno St / UC San Diego

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.9#127

Fresno St

68.2#190

UC San Diego

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFresno St

Where Fresno St struggles: shooting

Fresno St shoots an effective 50.6% (#206); UC San Diego allows 48.4% (#45). Expect about 49.4%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassFresno St

Fresno St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.0% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Fresno St's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UC San Diego's defense, Fresno St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Fresno St at about 43.5% of its shots from three, UC San Diego about 44.6%.

AdvantageUC San Diego

Where UC San Diego struggles: the offensive glass

UC San Diego rebounds 26.1% of its own misses (#320); Fresno St lets opponents grab 30.6% of their own misses (#183). Expect about 27.5%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.

Fresno St has the ball

OffenseUC San Diego allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #206

48.4% #45

-2.6 pt/100

18.1% #279

16.8% #168

-1.0 pt/100

27.9% #272

27.0% #38

-2.1 pt/100

33.8% #218

29.3% #48

-0.5 pt/100

75.1% #78

—

+0.2 pt/100

Fresno St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.9 pts/100

UC San Diego has the ball

OffenseFresno St allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #124

51.5% #184

+1.2 pt/100

16.5% #164

18.2% #87

-0.9 pt/100

26.1% #320

30.6% #183

-1.8 pt/100

31.2% #277

28.6% #37

-0.7 pt/100

69.3% #290

—

-0.3 pt/100

UC San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Fresno Stoffense vsUC San Diegodefense

Share of shots by zone

Fresno St shoots

36.0

8.3

14.8

40.8

UC San Diego allows

36.3

5.4

14.2

44.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#182	54.6%#53	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.1%#118	35.1%#59	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#60	39.5%#218	38.0%
Three	32.1%#274	31.5%#45	33.7%

UC San Diegooffense vsFresno Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UC San Diego shoots

42.6

6.6

8.4

42.4

Fresno St allows

36.7

5.1

14.5

43.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.3%#112	64.9%#349	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.6%#110	41.7%#227	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.1%#183	40.8%#270	38.0%
Three	32.8%#241	30.7%#30	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Fresno St

+0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#151 of 365

Off reb %

27.9%

#272

Def reb %

69.4%

#183

Turnover %

18.1%

#279

Forced TO %

18.2%

#87

FT rate

33.8%

#218

FT allowed

28.6%

#37

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+1.7

UC San Diego

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#159 of 365

Off reb %

26.1%

#320

Def reb %

73.0%

#38

Turnover %

16.5%

#164

Forced TO %

16.8%

#168

FT rate

31.2%

#277

FT allowed

29.3%

#48

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Fresno St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.7 (#151 of 365) to UC San Diego’s +0.6 (#159).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Fresno St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jake Heidbreder	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	37.0	17.0	2.8	2.3	2.0	49.7%	31.9%	7.2	90.1%	26.5%
35	DeShawn Gory	F	Fr	6'6"	32-32	29.3	13.7	6.2	2.0	1.6	52.5%	27.0%	3.5	64.7%	28.1%
16	Wilson Jacques	C	Fr	7'0"	32-32	27.4	8.8	8.8	1.1	1.6	49.3%	30.8%	0.4	74.4%	20.6%
4	Cameron Faas	G	Sr	6'7"	32-17	19.1	5.3	2.3	0.3	0.5	54.1%	37.1%	3.6	90.0%	15.9%
9	Gasper Kocevar	C	Fr	6'10"	26-5	13.4	3.3	2.2	0.7	0.7	65.4%	44.4%	0.3	54.3%	14.1%
15	David Douglas Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	18-8	17.8	7.2	1.4	0.2	0.6	58.2%	39.7%	4.1	71.9%	21.0%
11	Jac Mani	F	Jr	6'9"	26-0	11.8	6.0	2.7	0.4	0.9	51.2%	30.0%	1.9	68.0%	31.5%
6	DJ Stickman	G	Fr	6'2"	20-1	15.2	3.6	2.6	1.4	1.3	60.5%	44.4%	0.5	72.4%	15.3%
5	Makhan Diouf	F	Fr	6'11"	17-2	5.1	1.1	1.4	0.2	0.7	28.3%	9.1%	0.6	85.7%	25.0%
17	Matteo Porto	G	Fr	6'7"	13-0	3.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	13.3%	0.0%	0.8	57.1%	25.7%
1	Troy Jenkins	G	Fr	6'4"	2-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	9.6%
80	Nathan Zulemie	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UC San Diego2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UC San Diego's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
9	Tom Beattie	G	Jr	6'5"	34-34	31.2	10.6	5.3	3.4	1.5	53.6%	32.1%	3.9	57.5%	20.5%
8	Leo Beath	F	Jr	6'8"	34-33	30.1	12.2	5.1	1.6	1.5	50.0%	32.9%	4.4	74.0%	24.5%
10	Alex Chaikin	G	So	6'5"	34-17	25.0	9.7	2.1	1.2	1.2	54.3%	39.2%	5.7	80.3%	22.1%
7	Bol Dengdit	F	Jr	6'11"	34-34	23.4	10.7	5.2	1.7	1.8	52.7%	29.4%	2.5	64.3%	28.3%
0	Hudson Mayes	G	Fr	6'5"	33-12	23.9	11.1	5.7	1.7	1.2	56.8%	35.5%	0.9	79.8%	24.4%
20	Aidan Burke	G	Jr	6'3"	34-17	21.7	6.2	2.5	1.5	0.7	54.4%	31.9%	3.4	75.0%	16.4%
5	Emanuel Prospere II	G	Sr	6'5"	28-22	22.1	8.0	3.8	3.1	2.0	51.4%	20.6%	1.2	60.9%	24.7%
13	Jaden Vance	F	Fr	6'6"	24-0	13.5	5.0	2.1	0.6	1.0	52.1%	36.1%	1.5	74.1%	23.6%
23	Trap Johnson	G	Fr	6'6"	24-0	9.2	2.6	1.3	0.2	0.3	48.1%	30.6%	1.5	66.7%	17.6%
33	Dimitrije Vukicevic	C	Fr	7'0"	25-0	7.2	2.6	1.7	0.6	0.6	60.0%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	23.0%
4	Cade Pendleton	F	Jr	6'10"	19-1	7.7	2.1	1.5	0.6	0.1	41.3%	27.0%	1.9	66.7%	18.7%
1	Ryder Elisaldez	G	So	6'3"	10-0	4.3	0.9	0.2	0.5	0.2	62.5%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	10.1%
2	Christopher Cox	G	Fr	6'8"	5-0	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.0	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.4	0.0%	31.0%
22	Yaqub Mir	G	So	6'2"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	59.8%
11	Jasen Brooks	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Tyson Dunn	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Fresno St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jake Heidbreder	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	37.0	17.0	2.8	2.3	2.0	49.7%	31.9%	7.2	90.1%	26.5%
35	DeShawn Gory	F	Fr	6'6"	32-32	29.3	13.7	6.2	2.0	1.6	52.5%	27.0%	3.5	64.7%	28.1%
16	Wilson Jacques	C	Fr	7'0"	32-32	27.4	8.8	8.8	1.1	1.6	49.3%	30.8%	0.4	74.4%	20.6%
4	Cameron Faas	G	Sr	6'7"	32-17	19.1	5.3	2.3	0.3	0.5	54.1%	37.1%	3.6	90.0%	15.9%
9	Gasper Kocevar	C	Fr	6'10"	26-5	13.4	3.3	2.2	0.7	0.7	65.4%	44.4%	0.3	54.3%	14.1%
15	David Douglas Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	18-8	17.8	7.2	1.4	0.2	0.6	58.2%	39.7%	4.1	71.9%	21.0%
11	Jac Mani	F	Jr	6'9"	26-0	11.8	6.0	2.7	0.4	0.9	51.2%	30.0%	1.9	68.0%	31.5%
6	DJ Stickman	G	Fr	6'2"	20-1	15.2	3.6	2.6	1.4	1.3	60.5%	44.4%	0.5	72.4%	15.3%
5	Makhan Diouf	F	Fr	6'11"	17-2	5.1	1.1	1.4	0.2	0.7	28.3%	9.1%	0.6	85.7%	25.0%
17	Matteo Porto	G	Fr	6'7"	13-0	3.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	13.3%	0.0%	0.8	57.1%	25.7%
1	Troy Jenkins	G	Fr	6'4"	2-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	9.6%
80	Nathan Zulemie	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Fresno St

Against the spread

Season

20-11

Home

12-4

Road

6-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.4

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

9-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.4

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Colorado StAdjEM #88	N	L 63–67	+7.5	W+3.5	145.5	U130	100.1	106.4	63.0
Mar 7	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	A	L 60–85	+12.5	L−12.5	150.0	U145	82.6	117.0	72.7
Mar 3	San José StAdjEM #282	H	W 82–68	−7.5	W+6.5	149.5	O150	120.2	99.7	68.2
Feb 28	Boise StAdjEM #63	H	L 53–69	+7.0	L−9.0	149.0	U122	88.3	114.9	60.0
Feb 24	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	L 70–74	+8.5	W+4.5	148.5	U144	105.0	111.0	66.7
Feb 21	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	L 78–80	+9.0	W+7.0	156.5	O158	116.0	119.0	67.2
Feb 17	WyomingAdjEM #98	A	L 82–92	+9.5	L−0.5	147.5	O174	125.6	140.9	65.3
Feb 14	Air ForceAdjEM #360	H	W 93–63	−15.0	W+15.0	142.0	O156	127.5	86.4	72.9
Feb 10	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 78–91	+21.0	W+8.0	152.5	O169	111.5	130.0	70.0
Feb 7	NevadaAdjEM #71	A	L 59–69	+11.5	W+1.5	149.5	U128	93.3	109.1	63.2

UC San Diego

Against the spread

Season

16-16

Home

5-8

Road

7-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-20

Home

5-8

Road

3-10

Last 10

1-9

avg vs total −11.8

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	N	L 70–80	−2.0	L−12.0	153.5	U150	96.4	110.2	72.6
Mar 11	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	N	W 72–69	−4.5	L−1.5	163.0	U141	98.3	94.2	73.2
Mar 7	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	A	W 64–63	+2.0	W+3.0	142.0	U127	102.5	100.9	62.4
Mar 5	FullertonAdjEM #205	A	L 71–75	−3.0	L−7.0	157.0	U146	101.6	107.4	69.8
Feb 28	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	H	W 80–64	−7.5	W+8.5	164.0	U144	114.0	91.2	70.2
Feb 26	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	H	W 84–72	−14.5	L−2.5	149.0	O156	117.6	100.8	71.4
Feb 21	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	W 71–69	+4.5	W+6.5	143.5	U140	112.2	109.0	63.3
Feb 14	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	H	W 72–66	−11.0	L−5.0	147.5	U138	101.3	92.9	71.0
Feb 12	UC DavisAdjEM #185	H	W 68–51	−6.0	W+11.0	150.5	U119	96.7	72.5	70.3
Feb 7	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	A	L 67–72	+6.5	W+1.5	148.5	U139	90.3	97.0	74.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Fresno StUC San Diego

Efficiency

106.2

107.3

105.8

104.8

68.9

68.2

—

Shooting

50.6%

52.6%

52.3%

55.0%

32.1%

32.8%

75.1%

69.3%

33.8%

31.2%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

16.5%

18.2%

16.8%

27.9%

26.1%

30.6%

27.0%

10.7%

8.7%

9.8%

10.2%

Style

40.9%

42.3%

43.9%

47.7%

13.1%

15.9%

49.9%

55.5%

27.3%

30.4%

Roster

2.29

2.51

6'7.2"

6'6.3"

77.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Fresno St

Returning minutes: 77.4%Returning production: 79.7%

Lost

Zaon Collins 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Bastien Rieber 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano 3.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg · transferred to Merrimack

Added

Nathan Zulemie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 77% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UC San Diego

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UC San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 12	2025-26	UC San Diego 78 – 73 Fresno St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.