CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRedhawk Center, Seattle, WA
Portland St
Efficiency #145
2025-26: 20-11 · 14-6 conf
@
Seattle U
Efficiency #125
2025-26: 21-14 · 9-11 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
65.8
win 34%
Projected
70.5
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: SEA −4.7 · total 136.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Seattle U 68.7, Portland St 68.6 → 69.0 possessions
+1.4
Seattle U offense vs Portland St defense
−6.3
Portland St offense vs Seattle U defense
−7.1
Projected total
136.2
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Seattle U offense vs Portland St defense
−6.3
Portland St offense vs Seattle U defense
+7.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Seattle U by 4.7
4.7
Portland St side ◂▸ Seattle U side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.8 against +4.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Seattle U.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Portland St is the faster team (69.0, #147 of 365) and Seattle U the slower (68.8, #160). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.2
model
Projected team totals
65.8 / 70.5
Portland St / Seattle U
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#157
Portland St
68.7#150
Seattle U

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSeattle U
Where Seattle U struggles: the offensive glass
Seattle U rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#347); Portland St lets opponents grab 26.4% of their own misses (#23). Expect about 23.8%, 6.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePortland St
Where Portland St struggles: ball control
Portland St turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#200); Seattle U forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#9). Expect about 19.6%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashPortland St
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Portland St (#26 in shot-blocking exposure) against Seattle U (#14 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.7%. Historically Seattle U's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
Portland St has the ball
OffenseSeattle U allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #211
48.4% #46
-2.7 pt/100
16.9% #200
21.1% #9
-3.5 pt/100
30.0% #199
31.8% #249
+0.2 pt/100
37.1% #126
33.0% #131
-0.0 pt/100
71.0% #238
—
-0.1 pt/100
Portland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100
Seattle U has the ball
OffensePortland St allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #249
48.8% #56
-3.0 pt/100
16.8% #183
18.0% #95
-1.0 pt/100
23.7% #347
26.4% #23
-4.0 pt/100
34.2% #201
42.8% #337
+0.5 pt/100
70.6% #252
—
-0.2 pt/100
Seattle U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Portland Stoffense vsSeattle Udefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland St shoots
Seattle U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.0%#23953.2%#2658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25739.6%#18039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24440.7%#26738.0%
Three32.6%#25032.1%#6933.7%
Seattle Uoffense vsPortland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Seattle U shoots
Portland St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26255.3%#6958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.8%#15139.4%#16939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.0%#26336.2%#11838.0%
Three33.7%#18632.3%#7733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Portland St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#153 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#199
Def reb %
73.6%
#23
Turnover %
16.9%
#200
Forced TO %
18.0%
#95
FT rate
37.1%
#126
FT allowed
42.8%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−1.9
Seattle U
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#145 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#347
Def reb %
68.2%
#249
Turnover %
16.8%
#183
Forced TO %
21.1%
#9
FT rate
34.2%
#201
FT allowed
33.0%
#131
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6

Seattle U has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#145 of 365) to Portland St’s +0.6 (#153).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Portland St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Jaylin HendersonGSr6'3"31-3137.318.24.15.82.945.9%26.6%4.078.7%31.6%
23Terri Miller Jr.FSr6'8"30-3031.519.15.63.42.856.6%38.8%4.669.9%35.1%
4Tre-Vaughn MinottCSr6'10"31-3128.69.98.80.31.165.6%—0.061.4%17.4%
0Keyon Kensie Jr.GJr6'8"29-2930.310.96.91.11.346.8%28.7%2.872.4%22.9%
1Kelcy PhippsGSo6'2"31-417.64.71.71.00.859.5%43.1%1.947.7%16.0%
15Alex DupreGFr6'5"30-2615.43.21.60.60.437.5%29.4%1.783.9%14.7%
21Isaiah WilliamsGSr6'7"24-314.43.61.50.30.547.1%24.4%1.775.0%15.9%
6Sebastian TidorGJr6'5"27-012.84.51.50.60.449.1%34.2%2.970.0%20.8%
3Brycen LongGSr6'2"27-010.43.00.70.60.752.6%37.3%1.983.3%17.8%
2Mozae Downing-RiversGSr6'6"19-05.51.10.11.10.550.0%0.0%0.1100.0%15.3%
7Charles ChukwuFJr6'9"21-04.31.40.80.00.183.3%—0.00.0%13.0%
32Brayden BarronFFr6'6"18-04.71.01.50.10.352.9%—0.00.0%16.0%
10Colt NessGFr6'0"10-15.60.80.71.10.630.8%0.0%0.4—17.7%
12Samuel Stewart IVGSr6'4"11-04.00.80.50.40.034.6%12.5%0.7—15.7%
13Kean WebbFSo6'11"4-06.30.81.00.00.050.0%—0.014.3%11.8%
9Isaac BriceFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Matt BeattyCFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Portland StSeattle U
Efficiency
105.4
103.7
104.1
101.3
68.6
68.7
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
49.8%
51.5%
49.3%
32.6%
33.7%
71.0%
70.6%
37.1%
34.2%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
16.8%
18.0%
21.1%
30.0%
23.7%
26.4%
31.8%
9.5%
9.6%
7.4%
9.4%
Style
34.4%
39.4%
48.2%
43.9%
12.5%
9.9%
51.2%
53.8%
28.6%
30.5%
Roster
3.32
3.25
6'6"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Portland St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Seattle U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.