CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Abilene), Abilene, TX
Lamar
Efficiency #236
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-15 conf
@
Abilene Chrstn
Efficiency #263
2025-26: 14-19 · 6-14 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
68.1
win 41%
Projected
70.6
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: ACU −2.6 · total 138.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Abilene Chrstn 68.4, Lamar 67.0 → 67.1 possessions
−2.6
Abilene Chrstn offense vs Lamar defense
−4.1
Lamar offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense
−2.8
Projected total
138.7
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Abilene Chrstn offense vs Lamar defense
−4.1
Lamar offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense
+2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Abilene Chrstn by 2.6
2.6
Lamar side ◂▸ Abilene Chrstn side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Abilene Chrstn.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Abilene Chrstn is the faster team (68.9, #153 of 365) and Lamar the slower (65.8, #301). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.7
model
Projected team totals
68.1 / 70.6
Lamar / Abilene Chrstn
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#287
Lamar
68.4#177
Abilene Chrstn
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageLamar
Where Lamar struggles: ball control
Lamar turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#273); Abilene Chrstn forces turnovers on 23.4% of opponent possessions (#2). Expect about 21.7%, 5.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseAbilene Chrstn
Abilene Chrstn's ball-hawking
Abilene Chrstn ranks #3 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.1% of Lamar's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
DefenseLamar
Lamar's shot-blocking
Lamar ranks #31 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.0% of Abilene Chrstn's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageAbilene Chrstn
Where Abilene Chrstn struggles: shooting
Abilene Chrstn shoots an effective 47.5% (#326); Lamar allows 50.9% (#153). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversAbilene Chrstn
Abilene Chrstn turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.4% is worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions against Abilene Chrstn's offense.
ClashLamar
Style match: 3-point volume
Lamar rarely shoots threes (33.9% of its shots); Abilene Chrstn runs teams off the line (30.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 28.9% — both habits push the same way.
Lamar has the ball
OffenseAbilene Chrstn allowsvs D1 avg
47.8% #318
56.5% #352
+0.9 pt/100
18.1% #273
23.4% #2
-6.1 pt/100
35.7% #31
29.1% #113
+1.9 pt/100
27.9% #344
53.5% #365
+0.9 pt/100
70.7% #249
—
-0.2 pt/100
Lamar net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100
Abilene Chrstn has the ball
OffenseLamar allowsvs D1 avg
47.5% #326
50.9% #153
-3.4 pt/100
20.8% #356
17.3% #130
-3.3 pt/100
31.0% #164
29.4% #130
-0.0 pt/100
41.7% #34
44.4% #347
+1.1 pt/100
70.4% #258
—
-0.2 pt/100
Abilene Chrstn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersLamaroffense vsAbilene Chrstndefense
Share of shots by zone
Lamar shoots
33.4
7.3
26.1
33.1
Abilene Chrstn allows
49.0
8.0
13.4
29.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.3%#337 | 60.3%#243 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.1%#77 | 39.3%#163 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.0%#188 | 39.3%#214 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.9%#238 | 40.9%#365 | 33.7% |
Abilene Chrstnoffense vsLamardefense
Share of shots by zone
Abilene Chrstn shoots
40.0
8.0
18.8
33.2
Lamar allows
39.6
5.0
17.7
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.7%#280 | 59.0%#189 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.2%#300 | 32.9%#27 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.1%#108 | 33.6%#40 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.0%#319 | 35.3%#266 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersLamar
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#284 of 365
Off reb %
35.7%
#31
Def reb %
70.6%
#130
Turnover %
18.1%
#273
Forced TO %
17.3%
#130
FT rate
27.9%
#344
FT allowed
44.4%
#347
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−2.4
Abilene Chrstn
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#199 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#164
Def reb %
70.9%
#113
Turnover %
20.8%
#356
Forced TO %
23.4%
#2
FT rate
41.7%
#34
FT allowed
53.5%
#365
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−2.8
Forcing turnovers+4.6
Foul shots drawn+1.7
Foul shots allowed−4.7
Abilene Chrstn has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#199 of 365) to Lamar’s −2.5 (#284).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Lamar2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Rob Lee Jr. | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-30 | 28.2 | 16.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 53.6% | 40.0% | 6.0 | 81.1% | 33.5% | |
| 0 | Cody Pennebaker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-31 | 27.5 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 26.5% | 1.1 | 51.9% | 18.2% | |
| 4 | Braden East | F | So | 6'9" | 30-28 | 23.9 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 31.3% | 0.5 | 70.6% | 32.7% | |
| 10 | Errol White | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-15 | 22.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 47.4% | — | 0.0 | 56.9% | 17.4% | |
| 3 | King-Njhsanni Wilhite | G | Jr | 6'1" | 29-16 | 21.0 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 43.0% | 34.5% | 1.9 | 65.9% | 21.2% | |
| 11 | Eian Lowe | G | Fr | 5'10" | 30-2 | 17.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 43.5% | 34.9% | 1.4 | 63.6% | 19.3% | |
| 32 | Janko Bulajic | C | Sr | 6'10" | 31-2 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 43.5% | 10.4% | |
| 5 | Jayden Gambrell | G | Fr | 6'3" | 30-1 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 45.3% | 32.3% | 3.1 | 71.4% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | B.B. Knight | G | Jr | 6'6" | 20-0 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 28.7% | 13.9% | 1.8 | 95.0% | 30.7% | |
| 20 | Spencer Ezewiro | F | Jr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 30.8% | — | 0.0 | 10.0% | 11.4% | |
| 2 | Jayden Barrs | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 42.3% | 28.6% | 1.0 | — | 21.5% | |
| 12 | Christian Thomas | PF | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 51 | Izuchukwu Emelife | C | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Quinton Sanders | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Abilene Chrstn2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rich Smith | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 29.5 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 51.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 63.8% | 22.6% | |
| 15 | Bradyn Hubbard | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-29 | 28.1 | 16.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 45.5% | 31.3% | 4.5 | 79.9% | 37.0% | |
| 23 | Joseph Venzant | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-23 | 25.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.3% | 41.4% | 0.9 | 77.3% | 10.4% | |
| 5 | Cbo Newton | G | So | 6'3" | 30-24 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52.5% | 30.6% | 3.3 | 69.0% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Yaniel Rivera | G | Jr | 6'3" | 29-21 | 24.4 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 49.2% | 36.7% | 4.4 | 69.0% | 20.5% | |
| 0 | Zy Wright | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-6 | 17.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 51.7% | 30.8% | 2.0 | 85.0% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Cade Hornecker | F | Jr | 7'0" | 33-19 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 46.6% | 15.0% | 0.6 | 69.8% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joseph Scott | F | Jr | 6'9" | 28-7 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 51.3% | 24.4% | |
| 7 | Christian Alston | G | So | 6'7" | 30-0 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 38.1% | 22.2% | 1.5 | 69.4% | 31.6% | |
| 11 | Ma'Shy Hill | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-7 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 61.9% | — | 0.0 | 39.3% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Isaac Dye | G | Fr | 6'2" | 23-0 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 22.3% | |
| 3 | Tylan Lewis | G | Fr | 6'0" | 24-0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 14.1% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Carrillo | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 15.6% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Lamar2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Rob Lee Jr. | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-30 | 28.2 | 16.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 53.6% | 40.0% | 6.0 | 81.1% | 33.5% | |
| 0 | Cody Pennebaker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-31 | 27.5 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 26.5% | 1.1 | 51.9% | 18.2% | |
| 4 | Braden East | F | So | 6'9" | 30-28 | 23.9 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 31.3% | 0.5 | 70.6% | 32.7% | |
| 10 | Errol White | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-15 | 22.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 47.4% | — | 0.0 | 56.9% | 17.4% | |
| 3 | King-Njhsanni Wilhite | G | Jr | 6'1" | 29-16 | 21.0 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 43.0% | 34.5% | 1.9 | 65.9% | 21.2% | |
| 11 | Eian Lowe | G | Fr | 5'10" | 30-2 | 17.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 43.5% | 34.9% | 1.4 | 63.6% | 19.3% | |
| 32 | Janko Bulajic | C | Sr | 6'10" | 31-2 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 43.5% | 10.4% | |
| 5 | Jayden Gambrell | G | Fr | 6'3" | 30-1 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 45.3% | 32.3% | 3.1 | 71.4% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | B.B. Knight | G | Jr | 6'6" | 20-0 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 28.7% | 13.9% | 1.8 | 95.0% | 30.7% | |
| 20 | Spencer Ezewiro | F | Jr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 30.8% | — | 0.0 | 10.0% | 11.4% | |
| 2 | Jayden Barrs | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 42.3% | 28.6% | 1.0 | — | 21.5% | |
| 12 | Christian Thomas | PF | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 51 | Izuchukwu Emelife | C | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Quinton Sanders | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Lamar
Against the spread
Season
13-14-2
Home
5-7-1
Road
8-6-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15
Home
6-7
Road
7-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −5.7
Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2 | Hou Christian | A | L 53–75 | −2.5 | L−24.5 | 134.0 | U128 | 79.4 | 112.3 | 66.8 |
| Feb 28 | Incarnate Word | A | L 60–72 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 138.0 | U132 | 94.4 | 113.3 | 63.6 |
| Feb 23 | Nicholls | H | L 52–53 | −3.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | U105 | 80.3 | 81.8 | 64.8 |
| Feb 21 | LSU N Orleans | H | L 71–77 | −5.5 | L−11.5 | 146.5 | O148 | 101.3 | 109.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 16 | UT Rio Grande | A | L 65–70 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 108.8 | 117.1 | 59.8 |
| Feb 14 | Texas A&M-CC | A | L 63–76 | +2.5 | L−10.5 | 136.0 | O139 | 93.7 | 113.1 | 67.2 |
| Feb 9 | N'Western St | H | L 68–70 | −7.5 | L−9.5 | 136.5 | O138 | 103.1 | 106.1 | 66.0 |
| Feb 7 | SF Austin | A | L 74–84 | +8.0 | L−2.0 | 139.5 | O158 | 108.7 | 123.4 | 68.1 |
| Feb 2 | SE Louisiana | H | W 73–54 | −6.0 | W+13.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 120.3 | 89.0 | 60.7 |
| Jan 31 | McNeese | H | L 63–64 | +10.5 | W+9.5 | 144.0 | U127 | 109.8 | 111.6 | 57.4 |
Abilene Chrstn
Against the spread
Season
13-17
Home
4-7
Road
7-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-13-1
Home
6-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +6.5
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Utah Tech | N | L 74–80 | +1.5 | L−4.5 | 141.5 | O154 | 105.1 | 113.6 | 70.4 |
| Mar 11 | Tarleton St | N | W 84–78 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 135.0 | O162 | 109.8 | 102.0 | 76.5 |
| Mar 7 | UT Arlington | H | L 57–64 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 133.0 | U121 | 87.1 | 97.8 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | CA Baptist | A | L 48–87 | +10.0 | L−29.0 | 137.0 | U135 | 66.2 | 120.1 | 72.5 |
| Feb 28 | Utah Valley | A | L 67–74 | +15.0 | W+8.0 | 140.5 | O141 | 96.6 | 106.7 | 69.3 |
| Feb 26 | Utah Tech | A | L 81–85 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | O166 | 115.9 | 121.7 | 69.9 |
| Feb 21 | Southern Utah | H | W 87–83 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 143.5 | O170 | 115.9 | 110.6 | 75.1 |
| Feb 16 | Tarleton St | A | L 62–65 OT | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 81.8 | 85.8 | 75.8 |
| Feb 14 | Tarleton St | H | W 73–59 | −3.0 | W+11.0 | 135.5 | U132 | 104.1 | 84.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 12 | UT Arlington | H | W 67–63 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 135.0 | U130 | 99.7 | 93.7 | 67.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLamarAbilene Chrstn
Efficiency
105.0
102.6
108.3
107.7
67.0
68.4
—
—
Shooting
47.8%
47.5%
47.0%
48.0%
32.9%
31.0%
70.7%
70.4%
27.9%
41.7%
Ball control & glass
18.1%
20.8%
17.3%
23.4%
35.7%
31.0%
29.4%
29.1%
11.4%
12.3%
8.5%
12.6%
Style
33.9%
32.8%
40.5%
44.0%
14.2%
16.5%
55.4%
54.1%
34.7%
37.1%
Roster
2.88
3.22
6'4.4"
6'4.5"
85.8%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLamar
Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 84.0%
Lost
- Andrew Holifield 28.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Christian Thomas no D1 minutes last season
- Izuchukwu Emelife no D1 minutes last season
- Quinton Sanders no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Abilene Chrstn
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.