CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCFSB Center, Murray, KY

N'Western St

Efficiency #299

2025-26: 10-22 · 8-15 conf

Murray St

Efficiency #108

2025-26: 20-13 · 12-9 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · TBD

71.5

win 17%

Projected

82.7

win 83%

No line posted yet.

Model: MUR −11.2 · total 154.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Murray St 71.2, N'Western St 66.6 → 69.6 possessions

+2.7

Murray St offense vs N'Western St defense

+5.2

N'Western St offense vs Murray St defense

−2.0

Projected total

154.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Murray St offense vs N'Western St defense

+5.2

N'Western St offense vs Murray St defense

+2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Murray St by 11.2

11.2

N'Western St side ◂▸ Murray St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Murray St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Murray St is the faster team (72.3, #20 of 365) and N'Western St the slower (65.2, #329). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.1

model

Projected team totals

71.5 / 82.7

N'Western St / Murray St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#314

N'Western St

71.2#12

Murray St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashN'Western St

Style match: 3-point volume

N'Western St rarely shoots threes (33.9% of its shots); Murray St runs teams off the line (27.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 27.3% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Murray St averages 72.3 possessions per 40, N'Western St 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMurray St

Where Murray St scores: shooting

Murray St shoots an effective 53.8% (#70); N'Western St allows 53.0% (#270). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMurray St

Murray St owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Murray St's offense.

AdvantageN'Western St

Where N'Western St struggles: the offensive glass

N'Western St rebounds 26.1% of its own misses (#321); Murray St lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#214). Expect about 27.8%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.

N'Western St has the ball

OffenseMurray St allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #301

52.4% #236

-1.4 pt/100

18.3% #288

15.8% #232

-0.3 pt/100

26.1% #321

31.3% #214

-1.6 pt/100

40.1% #58

32.2% #109

+0.1 pt/100

74.0% #135

—

+0.1 pt/100

N'Western St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

Murray St has the ball

OffenseN'Western St allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #70

53.0% #270

+3.4 pt/100

16.3% #158

16.9% #163

+0.3 pt/100

32.6% #100

32.6% #286

+1.6 pt/100

38.6% #86

36.3% #218

+0.3 pt/100

75.5% #67

—

+0.3 pt/100

Murray St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western Stoffense vsMurray Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

N'Western St shoots

37.7

9.9

19.1

33.3

Murray St allows

43.9

6.6

21.5

28.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#323	57.1%#117	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.3%#168	40.2%#195	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#64	41.2%#281	38.0%
Three	33.2%#218	36.2%#310	33.7%

Murray Stoffense vsN'Western Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Murray St shoots

36.7

5.7

12.4

45.2

N'Western St allows

38.8

8.4

14.8

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#93	60.4%#247	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.9%#105	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#91	41.4%#289	38.0%
Three	35.0%#120	35.5%#278	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western St

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#266 of 365

Off reb %

26.1%

#321

Def reb %

67.4%

#286

Turnover %

18.3%

#288

Forced TO %

16.9%

#163

FT rate

40.1%

#58

FT allowed

36.3%

#218

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Murray St

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#103 of 365

Off reb %

32.6%

#100

Def reb %

68.7%

#214

Turnover %

16.3%

#158

Forced TO %

15.8%

#232

FT rate

38.6%

#86

FT allowed

32.2%

#109

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Murray St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#103 of 365) to N'Western St’s −1.9 (#266).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Murray St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Javon Jackson	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	25.6	16.5	2.3	2.9	2.4	49.2%	36.9%	4.5	85.5%	37.8%
77	Roman Domon	G	Fr	6'9"	33-9	25.3	14.2	5.2	1.6	1.7	55.4%	36.8%	3.5	76.8%	28.8%
33	Fred King	C	Sr	6'9"	32-31	24.7	13.1	8.4	0.8	1.9	66.0%	54.5%	0.3	61.4%	26.9%
9	Layne Taylor	G	So	5'11"	31-26	24.7	8.0	2.7	3.2	1.0	52.7%	34.5%	4.6	78.9%	18.4%
13	Mason Miller	F	Sr	6'9"	32-24	22.8	5.9	3.8	0.5	0.5	55.6%	39.2%	3.8	78.4%	13.4%
8	JJ Traynor	F	Sr	6'9"	32-32	22.6	7.4	3.5	0.7	1.2	53.8%	29.3%	2.3	69.2%	19.2%
10	KJ Tenner	G	So	6'0"	33-7	16.5	6.0	1.5	2.1	0.8	52.7%	42.6%	1.4	74.1%	20.6%
2	Mathis Courbon	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	15.8	4.6	2.0	1.2	0.8	53.9%	40.8%	1.5	79.2%	16.6%
34	Brayden Shorter	G	Jr	6'5"	33-1	14.6	5.7	1.8	0.5	0.5	46.6%	28.4%	4.7	90.0%	23.5%
11	Dylan Anderson	C	Jr	7'0"	31-2	6.8	1.5	1.7	0.4	0.5	42.4%	20.0%	0.8	60.0%	17.2%
6	Brock Vice	F	So	6'10"	29-0	5.6	2.0	1.9	0.2	0.3	66.7%	36.4%	0.4	68.8%	18.3%
7	Ben Shtolzberg	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Dillon Butler	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Lachlan Crate	G	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Tristian Ford	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N'Western St

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

8-4

Road

9-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

4-8

Road

11-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −11.8

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	NichollsAdjEM #250	N	L 47–61	+2.0	L−12.0	139.0	U108	79.8	103.5	58.9
Mar 2	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	L 62–74	+9.0	L−3.0	139.0	U136	96.0	114.6	64.6
Feb 28	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	L 59–71	+6.0	L−6.0	134.0	U130	97.5	117.4	60.5
Feb 23	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	H	W 54–49	−2.5	W+2.5	138.0	U103	89.9	81.6	60.1
Feb 21	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	H	W 71–53	−2.5	W+15.5	133.5	U124	112.1	83.6	63.4
Feb 16	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 64–75	+14.0	W+3.0	137.5	O139	100.9	118.2	63.5
Feb 14	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	W 69–66	−1.0	W+2.0	131.0	O135	110.4	105.6	62.5
Feb 9	LamarAdjEM #236	A	W 70–68	+7.5	W+9.5	136.5	O138	106.1	103.1	66.0
Feb 7	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	A	L 48–52	+2.0	L−2.0	141.5	U100	72.1	78.1	66.5
Feb 4	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	H	L 68–74	−3.0	L−9.0	143.0	U142	107.6	117.1	63.2

Murray St

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

8-7

Road

3-9

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 8 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-14

Home

6-9

Road

8-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over 4 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	NevadaAdjEM #71	A	L 75–89	+9.0	L−5.0	160.0	O164	103.8	123.2	72.2
Mar 6	UICAdjEM #99	N	L 79–92	+1.0	L−12.0	149.5	O171	100.1	116.6	78.9
Mar 1	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	L 78–87	+4.0	L−5.0	158.0	O165	116.0	129.4	67.2
Feb 21	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	H	W 88–75	−14.0	L−1.0	153.0	O163	122.1	104.0	72.1
Feb 18	Illinois StAdjEM #80	A	L 61–78	+2.5	L−14.5	158.5	U139	93.9	120.1	64.9
Feb 15	BelmontAdjEM #54	H	L 70–87	+1.0	L−16.0	166.5	U157	95.6	118.8	73.2
Feb 12	Indiana StAdjEM #213	A	W 74–72	−3.5	L−1.5	164.0	U146	114.0	110.9	64.9
Feb 9	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	H	L 60–89	−4.0	L−33.0	145.0	O149	91.8	136.2	65.3
Feb 6	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	A	W 91–81	−1.0	W+9.0	158.0	O172	124.4	110.8	73.1
Feb 3	UICAdjEM #99	H	W 81–74	−5.5	W+1.5	158.0	U155	107.8	98.5	75.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N'Western StMurray St

Efficiency

104.1

113.2

111.3

110.0

66.6

71.2

—

Shooting

48.6%

53.8%

48.0%

55.0%

33.2%

35.0%

74.0%

75.5%

40.1%

38.6%

Ball control & glass

18.3%

16.3%

16.9%

15.8%

26.1%

32.6%

31.3%

10.6%

9.5%

9.6%

8.1%

Style

33.9%

44.8%

40.8%

40.4%

12.4%

12.0%

50.7%

49.1%

36.8%

38.1%

Roster

3.12

2.84

6'4"

6'5.9"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N'Western St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Murray St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.