CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral sitePechanga Arena, San Diego, CABill Walton Classic

Colorado

Efficiency #91

2025-26: 17-16 · 7-12 conf

San Diego St

Efficiency #53

2025-26: 22-11 · 16-7 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · TBD

74.0

win 39%

Projected

77.3

win 61%

No line posted yet.

Model: SDSU −3.2 · total 151.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: San Diego St 69.1, Colorado 69.3 → 70.1 possessions

+3.8

San Diego St offense vs Colorado defense

+1.3

Colorado offense vs San Diego St defense

−2.0

Projected total

151.3

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

San Diego St offense vs Colorado defense

+1.3

Colorado offense vs San Diego St defense

+2.0

San Diego St by 3.2

3.2

Colorado side ◂▸ San Diego St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +3.3 against +3.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Diego St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colorado is the faster team (70.2, #87 of 365) and San Diego St the slower (69.3, #129). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.3

model

Projected team totals

74.0 / 77.3

Colorado / San Diego St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#102

Colorado

69.1#113

San Diego St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

DefenseSan Diego St

San Diego St's shot-blocking

San Diego St ranks #8 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.4% of Colorado's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageSan Diego St

Where San Diego St scores: shooting

San Diego St shoots an effective 52.7% (#116); Colorado allows 52.6% (#243). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colorado at about 41.1% of its shots from three, San Diego St about 32.9%.

ClashColorado

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Colorado (#46 in turnover rate) against San Diego St (#19 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.8%. Historically San Diego St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

ClashColorado

Style clash: 3-point volume

Colorado rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); San Diego St lets opponents take 47.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Colorado has the ball

OffenseSan Diego St allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #108

48.2% #41

-0.9 pt/100

14.6% #46

20.3% #19

-1.2 pt/100

29.0% #235

31.1% #208

-0.4 pt/100

36.7% #139

38.5% #271

+0.4 pt/100

76.1% #50

—

+0.3 pt/100

Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

San Diego St has the ball

OffenseColorado allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #116

52.6% #243

+2.1 pt/100

17.2% #222

15.3% #267

+0.9 pt/100

29.5% #222

29.6% #144

-0.6 pt/100

39.0% #81

36.6% #228

+0.4 pt/100

73.0% #166

—

+0.1 pt/100

San Diego St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coloradooffense vsSan Diego Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado shoots

40.5

8.7

16.1

34.7

San Diego St allows

34.0

5.3

13.6

47.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.1%#157	52.3%#18	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.5%#187	32.2%#23	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#48	29.6%#3	38.0%
Three	35.2%#104	33.6%#164	33.7%

San Diego Stoffense vsColoradodefense

Share of shots by zone

San Diego St shoots

35.9

6.8

24.4

33.0

Colorado allows

38.1

8.5

16.7

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.3%#30	57.7%#136	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.6%#205	35.7%#81	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#125	43.6%#337	38.0%
Three	34.5%#144	36.3%#319	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Colorado

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#235

Def reb %

70.4%

#144

Turnover %

14.6%

#46

Forced TO %

15.3%

#267

FT rate

36.7%

#139

FT allowed

36.6%

#228

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.4

San Diego St

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#106 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#222

Def reb %

68.9%

#208

Turnover %

17.2%

#222

Forced TO %

20.3%

#19

FT rate

39.0%

#81

FT allowed

38.5%

#271

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers+2.4

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.8

San Diego St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#106 of 365) to Colorado’s +0.5 (#164).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San Diego St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Miles Byrd	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	28.1	10.4	4.7	2.6	1.9	48.2%	30.8%	4.3	79.5%	24.3%
10	BJ Davis	G	Jr	6'2"	33-7	22.3	10.8	3.2	2.2	0.9	50.6%	37.4%	3.0	85.3%	26.9%
24	Taj DeGourville	G	So	6'5"	33-5	19.4	5.5	2.8	3.0	1.5	42.8%	34.5%	1.7	65.5%	22.0%
40	Miles Heide	F	Jr	6'9"	32-31	19.1	5.6	4.5	0.8	1.0	62.3%	28.6%	0.2	51.0%	16.9%
4	Sean Newman Jr.	G	Sr	6'1"	33-5	15.5	3.3	1.2	2.4	0.8	41.0%	28.1%	1.0	86.1%	15.7%
3	Elzie Harrington	G	Fr	6'5"	23-17	21.0	8.0	1.6	2.3	1.7	53.8%	43.6%	1.7	81.3%	23.6%
0	Magoon Gwath	F	So	7'0"	25-16	19.0	8.9	4.3	0.3	1.5	58.3%	43.5%	1.8	60.6%	27.0%
8	Tae Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	32-3	14.3	5.8	3.4	0.3	0.4	65.7%	25.0%	0.3	63.1%	19.7%
5	Pharaoh Compton	F	So	6'7"	33-1	13.8	7.5	2.8	0.3	0.7	72.1%	0.0%	0.1	62.5%	25.1%
25	Jeremiah Oden	F	Sr	6'8"	30-15	13.8	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.5	51.4%	30.2%	1.8	69.7%	19.7%
33	Thokbor Majak	F	Fr	7'1"	7-0	4.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	0.4	16.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	17.8%
7	Cam Lawin	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	2.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	81.3%	50.0%	1.2	—	38.6%
9	Raymar Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	4-0	2.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.2%
6	Latrell Davis	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Colorado

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

11-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-16

Home

9-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.9

Over 5 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 86–90 OT	+9.0	W+5.0	162.0	O176	103.8	108.6	82.9
Mar 10	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	L 83–92	−1.0	L−10.0	165.0	O175	113.5	125.8	73.1
Mar 7	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 79–89	+13.5	W+3.5	156.0	O168	108.7	122.5	72.7
Mar 3	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 92–78	−1.0	W+13.0	148.5	O170	143.9	122.0	63.9
Feb 28	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 62–102	+19.0	L−21.0	138.5	O164	89.7	147.5	69.1
Feb 25	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 79–70	−6.0	W+3.0	163.0	U149	98.2	87.0	80.4
Feb 21	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 83–69	−3.5	W+10.5	162.5	U152	114.9	95.6	72.2
Feb 14	#22BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 86–90 OT	+15.5	W+11.5	162.0	O176	104.6	109.5	82.2
Feb 11	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 44–78	+13.5	L−20.5	155.5	U122	69.1	122.4	63.7
Feb 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 78–70	−3.5	W+4.5	158.0	U148	118.9	106.7	65.6

San Diego St

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

7-8

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.9

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 62–73	+2.5	L−8.5	146.0	U135	95.0	111.8	65.3
Mar 13	New MexicoAdjEM #42	N	W 64–62	−2.5	L−0.5	150.5	U126	96.8	93.7	66.1
Mar 12	Colorado StAdjEM #88	N	W 71–62	−6.5	W+2.5	142.0	U133	102.1	89.1	69.6
Mar 6	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 89–86	−9.0	L−6.0	153.5	O175	120.7	116.6	73.7
Mar 3	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 77–86	+1.0	L−8.0	145.0	O163	113.1	126.3	68.1
Feb 28	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 76–81	+1.5	L−3.5	149.0	O157	108.1	115.3	70.3
Feb 25	Utah StateAdjEM #24	H	W 89–72	+1.0	W+18.0	147.0	O161	128.0	103.5	69.5
Feb 21	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	L 74–83	−2.5	L−11.5	140.0	O157	109.5	122.8	67.6
Feb 17	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 63–73	−8.0	L−18.0	139.0	U136	88.4	102.5	71.2
Feb 14	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 71–57	−8.5	W+5.5	139.5	U128	113.2	90.9	62.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ColoradoSan Diego St

Efficiency

113.2

110.1

108.7

101.0

69.3

69.1

—

Shooting

52.9%

52.7%

53.0%

53.2%

35.2%

34.5%

76.1%

73.0%

36.7%

39.0%

Ball control & glass

14.6%

17.2%

15.3%

20.3%

29.0%

29.5%

29.6%

31.1%

8.4%

9.7%

9.2%

6.2%

Style

35.2%

33.8%

43.9%

42.5%

16.7%

15.0%

55.2%

54.4%

34.7%

42.9%

Roster

1.94

2.55

6'5.6"

6'5.9"

87.8%

85.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Colorado

Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 87.0%

Lost

Sebastian Rancik 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Leonardo Van Elswyk no D1 minutes last season
Jon Mani no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

San Diego St

Returning minutes: 85.7%Returning production: 87.5%

Lost

Reese Dixon-Waters 29.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Latrell Davis no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.