Mercer Bears vs Davidson Wildcats basketball final score
Sat, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET · John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Non-conferenceESPN+John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Mercer
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #203
@
Davidson
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #103
Final
7688
Final score
Projected 67.9 – 80.6
MER win 14%DAV win 86%
MarketClose
Spread
DAV −11.5
open DAV −11.0
Total
148.0
open 148.5
Our line
DAV −12.7
as of Sat, Nov 7 · 6:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Davidsonrated 3.5 above average
+3.5
Mercerrated 4.8 below average
+4.8
Home court
+4.3
Our line
DAV −12.7
◂ Mercer sideDavidson side ▸
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Davidson. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Mercer is the faster team (73.6, #98 of 365) and Davidson the slower (66.5, #285). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Market total
148.0
Market close · open 148.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.1#99
Mercer
67.7#339
Davidson
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
DAV −12.6
Four factors +23.9 · not in these stats −11.3
From the four factors
Davidson has the ball+14.1
Mercer has the ball−9.9
Davidson has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 66.0% #12 · MER allows 54.3% #218+11.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 21.1% #240 · MER forces 5.4% #329 · ~8 turnovers+5.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.6% #296 · MER allows 37.1% #175 · FT 50.0% #313−1.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 25.0% #256 · MER allows 36.8% #250−0.9
Mercer has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 46.3% #221 · DAV allows 39.0% #30−7.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 50.0% #52 · DAV allows 16.2% #11 · FT 63.0% #246−0.9
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.6% #208 · DAV allows 32.6% #183−0.7
✗Coughs it upTO% 24.5% #288 · DAV forces 13.5% #277 · ~13 turnovers−0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootMerceroffense vsDavidsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercer shoots
25.7
17.1
14.3
42.9
Davidson allows
39.1
6.3
18.8
35.9
D-I average
37.9
7.9
12.7
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.6%#190 | 56.0%#137 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#69 | 0.0%#1 | 37.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#112 | 25.0%#86 | 35.4% |
| Three | 30.0%#185 | 20.8%#25 | 32.3% |
Davidsonoffense vsMercerdefense
Share of shots by zone
Davidson shoots
24.5
22.4
10.2
42.9
Mercer allows
40.7
13.0
14.8
31.5
D-I average
37.9
7.9
12.7
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#81 | 54.5%#118 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.5%#123 | 57.1%#258 | 37.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 60.0%#35 | 62.5%#296 | 35.4% |
| Three | 52.2%#4 | 36.4%#236 | 32.3% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineMercer
−12.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#288 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#208
Def reb %
63.2%
#250
Turnover %
24.5%
#288
Forced TO %
5.4%
#329
FT rate
50.0%
#52
FT allowed
37.1%
#175
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−4.3
Forcing turnovers−9.2
Foul shots drawn+3.4
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Davidson
−6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#237 of 365
Off reb %
25.0%
#256
Def reb %
67.4%
#183
Turnover %
21.1%
#240
Forced TO %
13.5%
#277
FT rate
22.6%
#296
FT allowed
16.2%
#11
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−3.4
Foul shots drawn−3.7
Foul shots allowed+5.6
Davidson has more extra scoring chances per game: −6.0 (#237 of 365) to Mercer’s −12.7 (#288).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Mercer2026-27 numbers through Sat, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 28.7 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 35.7% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 60.0% | 10.3% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 26.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 56.3% | 42.1% | 6.3 | 100.0% | 29.9% | |
| 23 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 25.7 | 14.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 61.3% | 35.3% | 5.7 | 57.1% | 25.9% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 38.7% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 75.0% | 36.5% | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'11" | 3-3 | 25.0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 16.5% | |
| 0 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 54.8% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 77.8% | 20.4% | |
| 2 | G | So | 5'11" | 3-0 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 52.2% | 30.8% | 4.3 | 66.7% | 39.5% | |
| 12 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 8.2% | |
| 25 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.7% | |
| 5 | G | — | — | 2-0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.5 | — | 21.3% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 57.1% | 33.3% | 3.0 | — | 23.7% | |
| 16 | G | — | 5'10" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 39.1% | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 5'10" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 26.5% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameMercer
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −8.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +8.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Virginia Tech | A | L 67–96 | +21.0 | L−8.0 | 154.5 | O163 | 91.0 | 130.5 | 73.6 |
| Nov 2 | Reinhardt Eagles | H | W 90–53 | — | — | — | — | 120.3 | 70.8 | 74.8 |
| Mar 7 | W Carolina | N | L 73–77 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | U150 | 108.5 | 114.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | ETSU | H | W 82–76 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 128.4 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | W Carolina | A | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 107.8 | 113.6 | 68.6 |
| Feb 21 | Samford | H | W 89–86 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O175 | 126.4 | 122.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 19 | Chattanooga | H | L 90–94 | −10.0 | L−14.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 138.6 | 144.7 | 65.0 |
| Feb 14 | The Citadel | A | W 70–54 | −12.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U124 | 113.6 | 87.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 11 | Furman | H | W 69–64 | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 151.5 | U133 | 103.6 | 96.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 7 | Samford | A | L 49–69 | −2.0 | L−22.0 | 161.0 | U118 | 74.5 | 104.9 | 65.8 |
Davidson
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +18.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −12.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Washington St | A | W 76–61 | +3.0 | W+18.0 | 149.0 | U137 | 114.4 | 91.8 | 66.5 |
| Mar 17 | Oklahoma St | A | L 80–84 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 109.2 | 114.6 | 73.3 |
| Mar 13 | Saint Joseph's | N | L 58–70 | +2.0 | L−10.0 | 132.5 | U128 | 95.0 | 114.6 | 61.1 |
| Mar 12 | Loyola Chicago | N | W 64–59 OT | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 132.5 | U123 | 96.6 | 89.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 7 | St Bonaventure | A | W 68–63 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 106.0 | 98.2 | 64.2 |
| Mar 4 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 67–70 | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 137.0 | P137 | 102.1 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Mar 1 | La Salle | H | W 71–64 | −11.0 | L−4.0 | 133.5 | O135 | 105.3 | 95.0 | 67.4 |
| Feb 25 | Duquesne | A | W 67–56 | +3.5 | W+14.5 | 143.0 | U123 | 102.2 | 85.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | Fordham | A | L 59–63 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 132.0 | U122 | 98.4 | 105.1 | 60.0 |
| Feb 18 | Richmond | H | W 65–63 | −5.0 | L−3.0 | 140.5 | U128 | 101.9 | 98.8 | 63.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMercerDavidson
Efficiency
107.3
107.1
109.6
101.1
72.1
67.7
12.5
-3.1
Shooting
46.3%
66.0%
47.1%
56.7%
30.0%
52.2%
63.0%
50.0%
50.0%
22.6%
Ball control & glass
24.5%
21.1%
5.4%
13.5%
28.6%
25.0%
36.8%
32.6%
10.9%
10.5%
8.8%
3.3%
Style
37.0%
43.4%
44.8%
31.6%
3.0%
6.6%
50.0%
62.1%
41.4%
22.5%
Roster
3.23
2.73
6'4.8"
6'5.8"
24.2%
44.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMercer
Returning minutes: 24.2%Returning production: 20.8%
Lost
- Baraka Okojie 33.0 mpg, 19.1 ppg · transferred to George Mason
- Armani Mighty 31.1 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Pitt
- Zaire Williams 28.5 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Connor Serven 18.5 mpg, 5.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyle Cuffe Jr. 15.9 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to St John's
- Tristan Gross 11.9 mpg, 3.7 ppg · transferred to Radford
Added
- Keelan Steele from Maine · 15.5 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Makoi Mabor Makoi from UNC Wilmington · 8.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
- Dimitrije Kovacevic no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Lamonte no D1 minutes last season
- Ryder Cate no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Jackson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Davidson
Returning minutes: 45.0%Returning production: 43.3%
Lost
- Parker Friedrichsen 25.3 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Washington
- Devin Brown 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Roberts Blums 21.0 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to Penn State
- Hunter Adam 15.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Portland
- Sean Logan 12.0 mpg, 2.9 ppg · transferred to Saint Joseph's
- Manie Joses 8.6 mpg, 1.7 ppg · transferred to Hawai'i
Added
- Nick Janowski from St Thomas · 31.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
- Jackson Keith from Butler · 7.0 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Malik Davis no D1 minutes last season
- Tom Stoiber no D1 minutes last season
- Eetu Heinonen no D1 minutes last season
- John Carter Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -11.5-108 | 147.5→148.5o-105 u-115 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -11.5-110 | 150.5→147.5o-115 u-105 | -780 | +530 |
| BetMGM | -11.5-105 | 147.5o-115 u-105 | -700 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -10.5→-11.5-107 | 151.5→147.5o-114 u-108 | -715 | +460 |
| Caesars | -11.5-110 | 147.5→148o-110 u-110 | -700 | +500 |
| Fanatics | -11→-11.5-105 | 149.5→148o-110 u-110 | -750 | +525 |
| BetOnline | -11-112 | 146.5→148.5o-105 u-115 | -725 | +520 |
| Bovada | -11.5-105 | 148.5→147.5o-110 u-110 | -750 | +500 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5-110 | 146.5→148.5o-105 u-115 | -900 | +550 |
| Hard Rock | -11.5-105 | 149.5→147.5o-110 u-110 | -750 | +475 |
| Kalshi | -10.5-113 | 147.5o+100 u-104 | -614 | +525 |
| Polymarket | -11.5+104 | 150.5→147.5o+100 u-104 | -614 | +567 |
| Novig | -11.5+106 | 150.5→147.5o+100 u-104 | -567 | +525 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 7
- Morehead St at Louisville · 12:00 PM ET
- North Dakota at Winthrop · 12:00 PM ET
- NC A&T at Ohio · 1:00 PM ET
- Lamar at Abilene Chrstn · 2:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at East Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at South Dakota · 2:00 PM ET
- Colgate at Drexel · 2:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Marshall · 2:00 PM ET
- VCU at Memphis · 3:00 PM ET
- NC Central at Longwood · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St at Montana St · 3:00 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Colorado · 3:30 PM ET
- Long Island at La Salle · 3:30 PM ET
- Monmouth vs Rhode Island · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at Saint Joseph's · 4:00 PM ET
- Samford at UNLV · 4:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Santa Barbara · 4:00 PM ET
- Omaha at Utah State · 4:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Miami OH · 5:00 PM ET
- Washington St at High Point · 5:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Lipscomb · 5:00 PM ET
- UT Martin at IU Indy · 5:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Bucknell · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Furman · 5:00 PM ET
- VMI at UTSA · 5:00 PM ET
- New Mexico St at Gonzaga · 5:00 PM ET
- W Carolina at UNC Asheville · 5:30 PM ET
- Prairie View at UT Rio Grande · 5:30 PM ET
- N Arizona at New Mexico · 6:00 PM ET
- Hampton at G Washington · 6:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at Niagara · 6:30 PM ET
- Providence vs Nebraska · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- St Bonaventure at Canisius · 7:00 PM ET
- Hou Christian vs W Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Maryland at Georgetown · 7:30 PM ET
- Denver at UC Riverside · 7:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- Pacific at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at Evansville · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Weber St · 9:00 PM ET
- San José St at UC Irvine · 10:00 PM ET
- Portland St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- Sacramento St at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at UC San Diego · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.