VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners basketball final score
Sat, Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET · UTSA Convocation Center, San Antonio, TX
Non-conferenceESPN+UTSA Convocation Center, San Antonio, TX
VMI
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #353
@
UTSA
0-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #350
Final
6870
Final score
Projected 78.7 – 82.8
VMI win 36%UTSA win 64%
MarketClose
Spread
UTSA −5.5
open UTSA −5.75
Total
163.5
open 161.5
Our line
UTSA −4.2
as of Sat, Nov 7 · 4:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
UTSArated 9.2 below average
−9.2
VMIrated 9.1 below average
+9.1
Home court
+4.3
Our line
UTSA −4.2
◂ VMI sideUTSA side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward UTSA. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, VMI is the faster team (83.8, #4 of 365) and UTSA the slower (74.3, #80). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.4
per team, 40 min
Market total
163.5
Market close · open 161.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
73.5#36
VMI
72.6#69
UTSA
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
UTSA −4.2
Four factors +4.6 · not in these stats −0.4
From the four factors
UTSA has the ball+0.9
VMI has the ball−3.8
UTSA has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.4% #135 · VMI allows 64.5% #311+9.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 23.1% #277 · VMI allows 25.8% #82−4.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 18.8% #193 · VMI forces 22.7% #62 · ~16 turnovers−2.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 20.6% #305 · VMI allows 33.9% #136 · FT 61.5% #254−1.4
VMI has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.7% #266 · UTSA forces 28.3% #14 · ~20 turnovers−8.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 30.2% #182 · UTSA allows 50.0% #320+3.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 52.4% #44 · UTSA allows 39.3% #196 · FT 87.9% #12+2.1
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 32.5% #324 · UTSA allows 67.9% #322−1.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootVMIoffense vsUTSAdefense
Share of shots by zone
VMI shoots
44.7
2.1
19.1
34.0
UTSA allows
42.2
6.7
4.4
46.7
D-I average
37.9
7.9
12.7
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 38.1%#313 | 89.5%#328 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#271 | 33.3%#127 | 37.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 11.1%#283 | 0.0%#1 | 35.4% |
| Three | 23.8%#276 | 38.5%#261 | 32.3% |
UTSAoffense vsVMIdefense
Share of shots by zone
UTSA shoots
16.3
18.6
7.0
58.1
VMI allows
36.0
2.0
14.0
48.0
D-I average
37.9
7.9
12.7
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 42.9%#289 | 55.6%#126 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#147 | 100.0%#310 | 37.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#151 | 71.4%#310 | 35.4% |
| Three | 35.3%#117 | 48.3%#314 | 32.3% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineVMI
+6.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#88 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#182
Def reb %
74.2%
#82
Turnover %
22.7%
#266
Forced TO %
22.7%
#62
FT rate
52.4%
#44
FT allowed
33.9%
#136
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding+2.0
Ball security−3.0
Forcing turnovers+3.1
Foul shots drawn+4.0
Foul shots allowed+1.0
UTSA
−6.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
23.1%
#277
Def reb %
50.0%
#320
Turnover %
18.8%
#193
Forced TO %
28.3%
#14
FT rate
20.6%
#305
FT allowed
39.3%
#196
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding−6.1
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers+7.1
Foul shots drawn−4.3
Foul shots allowed−0.4
VMI has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.6 (#88 of 365) to UTSA’s −6.9 (#245).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
VMI2026-27 numbers through Sat, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 25.3 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 41.9% | 22.2% | 3.0 | 68.4% | 34.6% | |
| 44 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 24.7 | 17.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 52.6% | 35.7% | 9.3 | 100.0% | 32.2% | |
| 9 | F | So | 6'8" | 3-3 | 23.3 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 66.7% | 20.9% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 3-1 | 21.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 39.1% | 30.8% | 4.3 | 62.5% | 24.7% | |
| 11 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 20.0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 18.2% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 14.0% | |
| 22 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 19.7 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 63.2% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 90.0% | 24.9% | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 14.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 23.3% | |
| 15 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 14.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 40.6% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 80.0% | 22.8% | |
| 0 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 1.7 | — | 15.1% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-2 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 75.0% | 23.6% | |
| 72 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 25 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 9.0% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 7.4% | |
| 14 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 5.0 | — | 37.2% | |
| 42 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 44.7% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameVMI
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −0.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +4.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | SMU | A | L 70–95 | +24.5 | L−0.5 | 160.5 | O165 | 83.5 | 113.3 | 83.8 |
| Nov 2 | Virginia Lynchburg Dragons | H | W 115–83 | — | — | — | — | 129.6 | 93.5 | 88.7 |
| Mar 6 | UNC Greensboro | N | L 70–84 | +6.5 | L−7.5 | 156.0 | U154 | 103.8 | 124.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 28 | Chattanooga | A | L 79–86 | +11.5 | W+4.5 | 155.0 | O165 | 124.6 | 135.7 | 63.4 |
| Feb 26 | Samford | A | L 61–80 | +17.0 | L−2.0 | 156.0 | U141 | 93.0 | 122.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | W Carolina | H | L 62–81 | +9.0 | L−10.0 | 155.0 | U143 | 98.2 | 128.3 | 63.2 |
| Feb 18 | Wofford | A | L 76–82 | +13.5 | W+7.5 | 158.5 | U158 | 110.3 | 119.0 | 68.9 |
| Feb 14 | Furman | H | L 72–90 | +12.0 | L−6.0 | 146.5 | O162 | 101.4 | 126.8 | 71.0 |
| Feb 11 | UNC Greensboro | A | L 71–92 | +8.5 | L−12.5 | 151.0 | O163 | 102.7 | 133.0 | 69.2 |
| Feb 7 | ETSU | H | L 70–87 | +14.5 | L−2.5 | 144.0 | O157 | 99.1 | 123.2 | 70.6 |
UTSA
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −13.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +13.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | San José St | A | L 74–95 | +8.0 | L−13.0 | 156.0 | O169 | 99.6 | 127.8 | 74.3 |
| Mar 8 | Rice | A | L 71–80 | +12.0 | W+3.0 | 150.0 | O151 | 103.2 | 116.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 1 | Wichita St | H | L 67–84 | +15.5 | L−1.5 | 150.5 | O151 | 96.1 | 120.5 | 69.7 |
| Feb 25 | East Carolina | H | L 81–82 | +4.5 | W+3.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 119.9 | 121.4 | 67.5 |
| Feb 22 | Tulsa | A | L 74–100 | +22.0 | L−4.0 | 159.5 | O174 | 103.4 | 139.8 | 71.5 |
| Feb 18 | FAU | H | L 52–60 | +11.5 | W+3.5 | 157.5 | U112 | 76.9 | 88.7 | 67.6 |
| Feb 15 | Charlotte | A | W 88–79 | +14.0 | W+23.0 | 148.0 | O167 | 133.7 | 120.0 | 65.8 |
| Feb 11 | East Carolina | A | L 72–88 | +10.5 | L−5.5 | 149.5 | O160 | 101.3 | 123.9 | 71.0 |
| Feb 7 | North Texas | H | L 58–81 | +10.0 | L−13.0 | 138.5 | O139 | 83.2 | 116.1 | 69.7 |
| Feb 4 | South Florida | A | L 88–109 | +24.0 | W+3.0 | 163.5 | O197 | 124.4 | 154.1 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeVMIUTSA
Efficiency
97.6
98.4
113.9
113.8
73.5
72.6
8.7
-4.3
Shooting
32.5%
52.4%
31.0%
51.7%
23.8%
35.3%
87.9%
61.5%
52.4%
20.6%
Ball control & glass
22.7%
18.8%
22.7%
28.3%
30.2%
23.1%
25.8%
50.0%
14.3%
12.1%
16.7%
3.4%
Style
33.3%
54.0%
34.3%
37.8%
17.1%
16.2%
55.6%
59.3%
52.5%
48.5%
Roster
2.14
2.95
6'5.7"
6'4.7"
45.4%
13.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputVMI
Returning minutes: 45.8%Returning production: 50.5%
Lost
- Tan Yildizoglu 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Siena
- Linus Holmstrom 26.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Youngstown St
- Mario Tatum Jr. 25.1 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to NJIT
- Kaden Stuckey 16.3 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Le Moyne
- Jaylen Pazon 8.4 mpg, 4.2 ppg · transferred to Chicago St
- Mason Hagedorn 2.0 mpg, 0.4 ppg · transferred to Loyola MD
Added
- Trap Johnson from UC San Diego · 6.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Cazell Henderson-Bradley no D1 minutes last season
- Joao Panzo no D1 minutes last season
- Robert Peters no D1 minutes last season
- Dionysis Exarchopoulos no D1 minutes last season
- Rokas Zilys no D1 minutes last season
Returns 46% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred).
UTSA
Returning minutes: 13.1%Returning production: 8.6%
Lost
- Jamir Simpson 34.6 mpg, 16.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brent Moss 25.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Tulsa
- Baboucarr Njie 24.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · transferred to Temple
- Austin Nunez 20.9 mpg, 7.2 ppg · transferred to LSU
- Matheo Coffi 19.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to NJIT
- Kaidon Rayfield 17.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to N Colorado
Added
- JJ Kelly from Ohio · 25.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
- Demari Williams from Hou Christian · 19.9 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Preston Turner from E Illinois · 19.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Isaiah Coleman from Oklahoma St · 18.1 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
- Josiah LeGree from Morehead St · 17.6 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- KJ Tenner from Murray St · 16.5 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
Returns 13% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -5.5-108 | 161.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -4.5→-5.5-108 | 163.5→162.5o-115 u-105 | -230 | +188 |
| BetMGM | -4.5→-5.5-110 | 164.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -4.5-115 | 164.5→163.5o-112 u-112 | -220 | +170 |
| Caesars | -4.5→-5-110 | 164.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | -220 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -6→-5.5-105 | 161.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline | -6→-4.5-120 | 161→163.5o-112 u-108 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -4.5→-5.5-105 | 164.5→164o-110 u-110 | -210 | +175 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5-110 | 161.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | -210 | +175 |
| Hard Rock | -4.5-115 | 163.5o-110 u-110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5+127 | 161.5o-122 u+117 | -194 | +178 |
| Polymarket | -6.5→-5.5+104 | 163.5o-104 u+100 | -194 | +186 |
| Novig | -5.5+102 | — | -199 | +190 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 7
- Morehead St at Louisville · 12:00 PM ET
- North Dakota at Winthrop · 12:00 PM ET
- NC A&T at Ohio · 1:00 PM ET
- Lamar at Abilene Chrstn · 2:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at East Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at South Dakota · 2:00 PM ET
- Colgate at Drexel · 2:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Marshall · 2:00 PM ET
- VCU at Memphis · 3:00 PM ET
- NC Central at Longwood · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St at Montana St · 3:00 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Colorado · 3:30 PM ET
- Long Island at La Salle · 3:30 PM ET
- Monmouth vs Rhode Island · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at Saint Joseph's · 4:00 PM ET
- Samford at UNLV · 4:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Santa Barbara · 4:00 PM ET
- Omaha at Utah State · 4:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Miami OH · 5:00 PM ET
- Washington St at High Point · 5:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Lipscomb · 5:00 PM ET
- UT Martin at IU Indy · 5:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Bucknell · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Furman · 5:00 PM ET
- New Mexico St at Gonzaga · 5:00 PM ET
- W Carolina at UNC Asheville · 5:30 PM ET
- Prairie View at UT Rio Grande · 5:30 PM ET
- N Arizona at New Mexico · 6:00 PM ET
- Hampton at G Washington · 6:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at Niagara · 6:30 PM ET
- Providence vs Nebraska · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- St Bonaventure at Canisius · 7:00 PM ET
- Hou Christian vs W Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Maryland at Georgetown · 7:30 PM ET
- Denver at UC Riverside · 7:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- Pacific at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at Evansville · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Weber St · 9:00 PM ET
- San José St at UC Irvine · 10:00 PM ET
- Portland St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- Sacramento St at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at UC San Diego · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.