CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCam Henderson Center, Huntington, WV

Toledo

Efficiency #115

2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf

Marshall

Efficiency #175

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · TBD

78.7

win 43%

Projected

80.9

win 57%

No line posted yet.

Model: MRSH −2.2 · total 159.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marshall 69.7, Toledo 68.7 → 70.0 possessions

+3.8

Marshall offense vs Toledo defense

+2.9

Toledo offense vs Marshall defense

+4.7

Projected total

159.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marshall offense vs Toledo defense

+2.9

Toledo offense vs Marshall defense

−4.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Marshall by 2.2

2.2

Toledo side ◂▸ Marshall side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marshall.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marshall is the faster team (70.7, #66 of 365) and Toledo the slower (69.5, #114). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

159.6

model

Projected team totals

78.7 / 80.9

Toledo / Marshall

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#151

Toledo

69.7#71

Marshall

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMarshall

Where Marshall scores: shooting

Marshall shoots an effective 54.8% (#42); Toledo allows 54.3% (#308). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Marshall averages 70.7 possessions per 40, Toledo 69.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseMarshall

Marshall's shot-blocking

Marshall ranks #23 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of Toledo's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Marshall, Toledo) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Toledo at about 34.0% of its shots from three, Marshall about 43.6%.

AdvantageToledo

Where Toledo scores: shooting

Toledo shoots an effective 54.5% (#50); Marshall allows 50.3% (#118). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversToledo

Toledo protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Toledo's offense.

Toledo has the ball

OffenseMarshall allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #50

50.3% #118

+2.0 pt/100

14.7% #51

16.3% #201

+1.8 pt/100

29.5% #220

33.8% #316

+0.6 pt/100

30.5% #298

41.1% #313

+0.2 pt/100

75.4% #70

—

+0.3 pt/100

Toledo net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.9 pts/100

Marshall has the ball

OffenseToledo allowsvs D1 avg

54.8% #42

54.3% #308

+5.1 pt/100

16.6% #171

17.9% #103

-0.7 pt/100

31.9% #127

33.7% #313

+1.6 pt/100

29.2% #328

26.6% #16

-1.0 pt/100

73.0% #168

—

+0.1 pt/100

Marshall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Toledooffense vsMarshalldefense

Share of shots by zone

Toledo shoots

40.0

9.7

17.9

32.4

Marshall allows

36.7

5.4

18.8

39.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#220	60.2%#241	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	52.0%#6	35.8%#87	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.6%#5	34.0%#50	38.0%
Three	37.0%#29	33.6%#162	33.7%

Marshalloffense vsToledodefense

Share of shots by zone

Marshall shoots

31.0

3.9

21.0

44.1

Toledo allows

42.6

6.8

11.0

39.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.8%#8	61.9%#299	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.8%#248	53.7%#363	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#229	35.7%#98	38.0%
Three	36.8%#34	34.4%#215	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Toledo

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#99 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#220

Def reb %

66.3%

#313

Turnover %

14.7%

#51

Forced TO %

17.9%

#103

FT rate

30.5%

#298

FT allowed

26.6%

#16

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security+1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Marshall

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#127

Def reb %

66.2%

#316

Turnover %

16.6%

#171

Forced TO %

16.3%

#201

FT rate

29.2%

#328

FT allowed

41.1%

#313

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed−1.5

Toledo has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#99 of 365) to Marshall’s −3.7 (#322).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Toledo2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Toledo's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Sonny Wilson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	36.2	17.0	3.7	4.6	1.6	53.7%	37.8%	3.3	69.4%	26.5%
2	Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	34-32	33.4	16.4	4.0	4.5	1.9	55.4%	40.7%	5.6	84.6%	26.9%
7	Sean Craig	F	Sr	6'7"	34-32	31.6	11.6	7.3	1.5	1.1	55.2%	35.6%	3.1	75.0%	20.0%
25	Austin Parks	C	Jr	6'10"	34-34	25.2	10.7	5.6	1.9	1.8	62.4%	27.3%	0.3	71.3%	22.8%
4	Kyler Vanderjagt	G	Sr	6'4"	34-21	22.1	8.4	1.7	1.1	1.2	54.7%	38.2%	3.0	78.8%	21.7%
32	Jaylan Ouwinga	F	So	6'9"	34-2	18.6	6.3	3.4	0.6	0.9	53.0%	30.8%	1.1	63.6%	20.4%
5	Mynor Strong	G	So	6'3"	33-15	17.7	5.2	1.8	0.8	0.6	49.3%	34.9%	1.9	89.3%	18.3%
11	Will James Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	34-0	9.4	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.6	54.3%	29.4%	0.5	88.2%	19.7%
21	London Praytor	F	Fr	7'0"	15-0	4.9	2.4	1.7	0.3	0.3	48.4%	23.5%	1.1	100.0%	28.9%
22	Tyler Ode	G	So	6'5"	12-0	3.8	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.7	—	13.8%
10	Chris Riddle	F	So	6'5"	3-0	13.0	4.3	2.0	1.7	1.7	65.0%	20.0%	1.7	—	21.7%
0	Toby Nwokolo	F	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.7	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	22.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marshall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
50	Jalen Speer	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	32.5	15.7	4.1	5.5	2.4	48.7%	36.4%	7.8	83.0%	30.4%
5	Noah Otshudi	G	Sr	6'2"	31-31	31.5	14.5	3.4	3.5	2.7	48.9%	30.0%	2.3	84.5%	29.0%
3	Wilson Dubinsky	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	18.8	5.0	3.2	1.2	0.4	49.6%	37.1%	3.3	77.4%	15.6%
15	Caleb Hollenbeck	G	Sr	6'4"	32-27	17.3	5.7	1.6	1.0	0.4	58.3%	39.7%	4.3	41.7%	17.5%
6	Landen Joseph	G	Fr	6'2"	31-6	17.8	7.9	2.5	2.1	1.2	59.2%	41.3%	3.0	70.8%	24.5%
13	Matt Van Komen	C	Sr	7'4"	22-20	20.9	7.8	7.6	0.6	1.6	73.7%	—	0.0	76.2%	18.7%
11	Erich Harding	F	So	6'10"	32-12	14.3	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.1	47.2%	15.5%
9	Shamarrie Hugie	G	Jr	6'6"	26-1	12.3	4.4	2.5	0.5	0.7	56.8%	41.4%	1.1	64.7%	20.4%
4	Drew Fuquay	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.8	2.8	1.9	0.2	0.3	64.3%	41.7%	0.4	72.7%	17.5%
8	Bryce Slay	G	Fr	6'6"	24-0	8.7	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	41.3%	35.7%	1.2	81.3%	16.5%
0	Kai Spears	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	4.9	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.1	88.9%	16.0%
14	Grant Moore	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	35.8%
1	Kaiden White	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Will Moore	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Toledo2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Toledo's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Sonny Wilson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	36.2	17.0	3.7	4.6	1.6	53.7%	37.8%	3.3	69.4%	26.5%
2	Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	34-32	33.4	16.4	4.0	4.5	1.9	55.4%	40.7%	5.6	84.6%	26.9%
7	Sean Craig	F	Sr	6'7"	34-32	31.6	11.6	7.3	1.5	1.1	55.2%	35.6%	3.1	75.0%	20.0%
25	Austin Parks	C	Jr	6'10"	34-34	25.2	10.7	5.6	1.9	1.8	62.4%	27.3%	0.3	71.3%	22.8%
4	Kyler Vanderjagt	G	Sr	6'4"	34-21	22.1	8.4	1.7	1.1	1.2	54.7%	38.2%	3.0	78.8%	21.7%
32	Jaylan Ouwinga	F	So	6'9"	34-2	18.6	6.3	3.4	0.6	0.9	53.0%	30.8%	1.1	63.6%	20.4%
5	Mynor Strong	G	So	6'3"	33-15	17.7	5.2	1.8	0.8	0.6	49.3%	34.9%	1.9	89.3%	18.3%
11	Will James Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	34-0	9.4	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.6	54.3%	29.4%	0.5	88.2%	19.7%
21	London Praytor	F	Fr	7'0"	15-0	4.9	2.4	1.7	0.3	0.3	48.4%	23.5%	1.1	100.0%	28.9%
22	Tyler Ode	G	So	6'5"	12-0	3.8	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.7	—	13.8%
10	Chris Riddle	F	So	6'5"	3-0	13.0	4.3	2.0	1.7	1.7	65.0%	20.0%	1.7	—	21.7%
0	Toby Nwokolo	F	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.7	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	22.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Toledo

Against the spread

Season

19-13

Home

6-7

Road

10-4

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.4

Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

6-7

Road

6-7-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total +1.0

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	AkronAdjEM #48	N	L 76–79	+8.0	W+5.0	157.5	U155	111.4	115.8	68.2
Mar 13	UMassAdjEM #184	N	W 77–67	−3.0	W+7.0	158.0	U144	109.5	95.3	70.3
Mar 12	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	N	W 77–76	−1.5	L−0.5	152.0	O153	113.1	111.6	68.1
Mar 6	BuffaloAdjEM #186	H	W 99–78	−5.5	W+15.5	156.5	O177	151.8	119.6	65.2
Mar 3	#19Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 72–74	+8.0	W+6.0	162.5	U146	104.7	107.6	68.8
Feb 28	OhioAdjEM #233	A	W 79–67	+2.5	W+14.5	159.0	U146	119.4	101.2	66.2
Feb 24	N IllinoisAdjEM #341	H	W 79–69	−12.5	L−2.5	150.0	U148	119.5	104.3	66.1
Feb 21	E MichiganAdjEM #247	H	W 94–75	−8.5	W+10.5	147.0	O169	131.9	105.2	71.3
Feb 14	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	A	L 70–80	+4.0	L−6.0	150.0	P150	106.7	122.0	65.6
Feb 11	W MichiganAdjEM #276	A	W 90–79	−6.5	W+4.5	154.5	O169	131.0	115.0	68.7

Marshall

Against the spread

Season

10-20-1

Home

4-11-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

19-12

Home

12-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +12.6

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 78–82	−3.5	L−7.5	166.5	U160	107.7	113.3	72.4
Feb 27	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	L 82–99	−7.5	L−24.5	168.5	O181	114.4	138.1	71.7
Feb 24	Old DominionAdjEM #242	H	W 97–88	−8.5	W+0.5	160.5	O185	134.5	122.0	72.1
Feb 21	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	L 75–79	−2.5	L−6.5	153.5	O154	99.5	104.8	75.3
Feb 19	App StateAdjEM #180	A	W 94–93	+3.5	W+4.5	143.5	O187	141.4	139.9	66.5
Feb 16	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	H	W 84–80	−5.5	L−1.5	151.0	O164	129.8	123.6	64.7
Feb 14	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	A	L 87–101	−2.5	L−16.5	162.5	O188	112.2	130.3	77.5
Feb 11	Old DominionAdjEM #242	A	W 81–79	−3.0	L−1.0	156.0	O160	114.7	111.9	70.6
Feb 7	#23Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 74–90	+2.0	L−14.0	164.5	U164	104.9	127.6	70.5
Feb 4	Southern MissAdjEM #218	H	W 81–77	−10.5	L−6.5	148.5	O158	122.1	116.1	66.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ToledoMarshall

Efficiency

112.5

111.3

109.8

111.2

68.7

69.7

—

Shooting

54.5%

54.8%

54.0%

54.6%

37.0%

36.8%

75.4%

73.0%

30.5%

29.2%

Ball control & glass

14.7%

16.6%

17.9%

16.3%

29.5%

31.9%

33.7%

33.8%

9.0%

10.1%

8.5%

8.1%

Style

32.5%

44.3%

47.8%

37.7%

16.8%

15.3%

53.1%

56.5%

23.9%

32.6%

Roster

2.62

3.30

6'4.7"

6'4.6"

—

85.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Toledo

Returning minutes: 99.4%Returning production: 99.5%

ESPN hasn't posted Toledo's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marshall

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 80.3%

Lost

Wyatt Fricks 29.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kaiden White no D1 minutes last season
Will Moore no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 8	2025-26	Marshall 85 – 73 Toledo

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.