CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum, Greenville, NC
UNC Wilmington
Efficiency #86
2025-26: 27-7 · 15-4 conf
@
East Carolina
Efficiency #272
2025-26: 11-20 · 6-12 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
73.8
win 62%
Projected
70.4
win 38%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNCW −3.4 · total 144.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: East Carolina 69.1, UNC Wilmington 66.7 → 67.5 possessions
−1.7
East Carolina offense vs UNC Wilmington defense
−4.8
UNC Wilmington offense vs East Carolina defense
+2.5
Projected total
144.2
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
East Carolina offense vs UNC Wilmington defense
−4.8
UNC Wilmington offense vs East Carolina defense
−2.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
UNC Wilmington by 3.4
3.4
UNC Wilmington side ◂▸ East Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help East Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, East Carolina is the faster team (69.2, #135 of 365) and UNC Wilmington the slower (66.1, #291). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.2
model
Projected team totals
73.8 / 70.4
UNC Wilmington / East Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.7#307
UNC Wilmington
69.1#110
East Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageEast Carolina
Where East Carolina struggles: shooting
East Carolina shoots an effective 46.4% (#346); UNC Wilmington allows 47.5% (#30). Expect about 46.5%, 4.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUNC Wilmington
Where UNC Wilmington scores: the offensive glass
UNC Wilmington rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#40); East Carolina lets opponents grab 32.5% of their own misses (#282). Expect about 34.9%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (East Carolina, UNC Wilmington's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Wilmington at about 38.5% of its shots from three, East Carolina about 34.8%.
ClashEast Carolina
Style match: ball movement
East Carolina creates off the dribble (assists on 47.3% of its baskets); UNC Wilmington breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 46.2% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversUNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for UNC Wilmington's offense.
UNC Wilmington has the ball
OffenseEast Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #220
52.3% #229
+0.0 pt/100
14.8% #57
16.2% #206
+1.8 pt/100
35.3% #40
32.5% #282
+2.7 pt/100
40.4% #54
32.2% #110
+0.1 pt/100
68.7% #306
—
-0.3 pt/100
UNC Wilmington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.3 pts/100
East Carolina has the ball
OffenseUNC Wilmington allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #346
47.5% #30
-6.8 pt/100
17.1% #212
14.9% #295
+1.2 pt/100
33.4% #79
27.6% #51
+0.4 pt/100
39.2% #75
31.7% #99
+0.0 pt/100
70.0% #274
—
-0.2 pt/100
East Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUNC Wilmingtonoffense vsEast Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
UNC Wilmington shoots
35.7
9.4
16.2
38.7
East Carolina allows
37.5
4.9
18.6
39.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#145 | 58.9%#185 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.1%#327 | 44.4%#279 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.2%#308 | 39.9%#238 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#124 | 34.9%#245 | 33.7% |
East Carolinaoffense vsUNC Wilmingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
East Carolina shoots
39.5
5.2
24.9
30.4
UNC Wilmington allows
31.4
8.2
18.0
42.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.3%#318 | 58.8%#182 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.8%#198 | 32.6%#25 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.1%#184 | 39.3%#215 | 38.0% |
| Three | 29.3%#350 | 29.7%#6 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUNC Wilmington
+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#23 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#40
Def reb %
72.4%
#51
Turnover %
14.8%
#57
Forced TO %
14.9%
#295
FT rate
40.4%
#54
FT allowed
31.7%
#99
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.9
East Carolina
+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#114 of 365
Off reb %
33.4%
#79
Def reb %
67.5%
#282
Turnover %
17.1%
#212
Forced TO %
16.2%
#206
FT rate
39.2%
#75
FT allowed
32.2%
#110
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.8
UNC Wilmington has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#23 of 365) to East Carolina’s +1.7 (#114).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UNC Wilmington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nolan Hodge | G | Sr | 6'7" | 34-34 | 32.3 | 14.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 52.7% | 39.3% | 6.9 | 76.8% | 25.1% | |
| 7 | Greedy Williams | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 30.6 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 34.3% | 2.1 | 77.4% | 19.3% | |
| 5 | Noah Ross | G | Sr | 6'7" | 34-34 | 29.2 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 47.0% | 25.6% | 2.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 8 | Christian May | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-31 | 29.6 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 51.3% | 35.2% | 5.5 | 64.7% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Patrick Wessler | F | Jr | 7'1" | 34-34 | 26.7 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 59.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 55.8% | 28.6% | |
| 1 | Madison Durr | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.6 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 42.6% | 31.9% | 2.0 | 75.4% | 30.1% | |
| 22 | Gavin Walsh | F | Jr | 6'8" | 15-3 | 26.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 49.2% | 32.6% | 3.1 | 45.8% | 24.0% | |
| 13 | Makoi Mabor Makoi | F | So | 6'11" | 33-0 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 48.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 80.0% | 13.7% | |
| 0 | Jahnathan Lamothe | G | Jr | 6'4" | 19-0 | 15.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 54.6% | 40.3% | 3.5 | 53.3% | 21.9% | |
| 10 | Grady Whitt | G | So | 6'3" | 7-0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 13.9% | |
| 12 | Makel Smith | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 27.7% | |
| 14 | JoJo Fullwood | G | Sr | 6'2" | 8-0 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.9% | |
| 35 | Adam Tokpah | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | CJ Luster II | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Matija Prodanovic | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
East Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Corey Caulker | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-26 | 30.7 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 41.1% | 32.5% | 4.1 | 77.5% | 19.9% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Mbeng | G | So | 6'1" | 31-7 | 23.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 42.1% | 25.5% | 3.2 | 65.4% | 17.2% | |
| 15 | Demitri Gardner | G | Sr | 6'4" | 18-14 | 27.9 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 53.2% | 42.6% | 3.4 | 86.5% | 23.6% | |
| 23 | Reid Cason | F | So | 6'10" | 31-12 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 56.7% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 67.5% | 15.5% | |
| 4 | Tybo Bailey | G | So | 6'2" | 20-15 | 23.4 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 39.1% | 27.8% | 4.0 | 72.4% | 21.9% | |
| 33 | Eli DeLaurier | F | So | 6'10" | 23-10 | 15.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 44.2% | 13.3% | 1.3 | 90.5% | 22.1% | |
| 43 | Luke Davis | F | Sr | 6'8" | 26-7 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 0.2 | 78.9% | 14.6% | |
| 10 | Paddy D'Arcy | G | Fr | 6'6" | 21-0 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 31.3% | 20.7% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 13.2% | |
| 11 | Vito Perkovic | F | Fr | 6'10" | 19-1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 38.8% | 26.1% | 1.2 | 100.0% | 23.6% | |
| 0 | Jayshayne Woodard | G | Sr | 6'7" | 4-2 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 1.3 | 55.6% | 21.9% | |
| 6 | Ladontae Felton | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 18.4% | |
| 3 | Daithi Quinn | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Grant Smith | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Jake Baker | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Trevion LaBeaux | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UNC Wilmington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nolan Hodge | G | Sr | 6'7" | 34-34 | 32.3 | 14.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 52.7% | 39.3% | 6.9 | 76.8% | 25.1% | |
| 7 | Greedy Williams | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 30.6 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 34.3% | 2.1 | 77.4% | 19.3% | |
| 5 | Noah Ross | G | Sr | 6'7" | 34-34 | 29.2 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 47.0% | 25.6% | 2.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 8 | Christian May | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-31 | 29.6 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 51.3% | 35.2% | 5.5 | 64.7% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Patrick Wessler | F | Jr | 7'1" | 34-34 | 26.7 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 59.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 55.8% | 28.6% | |
| 1 | Madison Durr | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.6 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 42.6% | 31.9% | 2.0 | 75.4% | 30.1% | |
| 22 | Gavin Walsh | F | Jr | 6'8" | 15-3 | 26.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 49.2% | 32.6% | 3.1 | 45.8% | 24.0% | |
| 13 | Makoi Mabor Makoi | F | So | 6'11" | 33-0 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 48.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 80.0% | 13.7% | |
| 0 | Jahnathan Lamothe | G | Jr | 6'4" | 19-0 | 15.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 54.6% | 40.3% | 3.5 | 53.3% | 21.9% | |
| 10 | Grady Whitt | G | So | 6'3" | 7-0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 13.9% | |
| 12 | Makel Smith | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 27.7% | |
| 14 | JoJo Fullwood | G | Sr | 6'2" | 8-0 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.9% | |
| 35 | Adam Tokpah | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | CJ Luster II | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Matija Prodanovic | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UNC Wilmington
Against the spread
Season
16-15-1
Home
8-8-1
Road
8-6
Last 10
7-3
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-14
Home
8-9
Road
9-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −4.2
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | Dayton | H | L 61–80 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 95.9 | 125.8 | 63.6 |
| Mar 17 | Yale | A | W 68–67 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U135 | 104.5 | 103.0 | 65.1 |
| Mar 8 | Campbell | N | L 70–85 | −7.5 | L−22.5 | 149.0 | O155 | 97.8 | 118.7 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Elon | A | W 76–57 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 113.6 | 85.2 | 66.9 |
| Mar 1 | Charleston | H | L 76–79 | −5.0 | L−8.0 | 147.0 | O155 | 117.9 | 122.6 | 64.5 |
| Feb 26 | NC A&T | H | W 88–65 | −13.5 | W+9.5 | 147.5 | O153 | 136.2 | 100.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 21 | Campbell | A | W 73–68 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 150.5 | U141 | 106.8 | 99.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 19 | Monmouth | H | W 79–69 | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 109.7 | 95.8 | 72.0 |
| Feb 14 | Hofstra | H | W 70–66 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 137.5 | U136 | 114.7 | 108.2 | 61.0 |
| Feb 12 | Elon | H | W 65–54 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 149.5 | U119 | 108.0 | 89.7 | 60.2 |
East Carolina
Against the spread
Season
13-17
Home
6-10
Road
6-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.5
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
10-6
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +8.0
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | UAB | A | L 83–90 | +10.0 | W+3.0 | 150.5 | O173 | 108.9 | 118.1 | 76.2 |
| Mar 5 | Tulsa | H | L 66–93 | +8.5 | L−18.5 | 156.0 | O159 | 99.0 | 139.5 | 66.7 |
| Mar 1 | Memphis | H | W 84–68 | +4.0 | W+20.0 | 153.5 | U152 | 114.3 | 92.5 | 73.5 |
| Feb 25 | UTSA | A | W 82–81 | −4.5 | L−3.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 121.4 | 119.9 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Charlotte | A | L 56–68 | +4.5 | L−7.5 | 146.0 | U124 | 85.8 | 104.2 | 65.3 |
| Feb 18 | Wichita St | H | L 89–92 2OT | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 149.5 | O181 | 101.0 | 104.4 | 88.1 |
| Feb 14 | Rice | A | W 85–75 | +4.5 | W+14.5 | 145.5 | O160 | 127.9 | 112.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 11 | UTSA | H | W 88–72 | −10.5 | W+5.5 | 149.5 | O160 | 123.9 | 101.3 | 71.0 |
| Feb 7 | Temple | H | L 73–81 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 139.5 | O154 | 114.7 | 127.2 | 63.7 |
| Feb 1 | FAU | A | W 76–75 | +10.5 | W+11.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 113.3 | 111.8 | 67.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUNC WilmingtonEast Carolina
Efficiency
110.7
104.1
105.8
110.0
66.7
69.1
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
46.4%
49.1%
47.5%
35.0%
29.3%
68.7%
70.0%
40.4%
39.2%
Ball control & glass
14.8%
17.1%
14.9%
16.2%
35.3%
33.4%
27.6%
32.5%
7.8%
9.8%
7.9%
8.1%
Style
38.8%
31.1%
40.4%
43.4%
10.0%
12.0%
51.7%
47.3%
25.5%
27.1%
Roster
3.66
2.58
6'7"
6'4.1"
—
65.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUNC Wilmington
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
East Carolina
Returning minutes: 65.8%Returning production: 50.3%
Lost
- Jordan Riley 36.6 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Giovanni Emejuru 32.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Daithi Quinn no D1 minutes last season
- Jake Baker no D1 minutes last season
- Grant Smith no D1 minutes last season
- Trevion LaBeaux no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 18 | 2025-26 | East Carolina 60 – 85 UNC Wilmington |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.