CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKimmel Arena, Asheville, NC

W Carolina

Efficiency #217

2025-26: 15-16 · 11-9 conf

UNC Asheville

Efficiency #226

2025-26: 15-17 · 9-9 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · 5:30 PM ET

71.6

win 39%

Projected

74.9

win 61%

No line posted yet.

Model: UNCA −3.4 · total 146.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UNC Asheville 66.6, W Carolina 68.7 → 67.0 possessions

−2.8

UNC Asheville offense vs W Carolina defense

+0.3

W Carolina offense vs UNC Asheville defense

+0.8

Projected total

146.5

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UNC Asheville offense vs W Carolina defense

+0.3

W Carolina offense vs UNC Asheville defense

−0.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UNC Asheville by 3.4

3.4

W Carolina side ◂▸ UNC Asheville side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UNC Asheville.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Carolina is the faster team (68.7, #164 of 365) and UNC Asheville the slower (67.1, #238). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.5

model

Projected team totals

71.6 / 74.9

W Carolina / UNC Asheville

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#147

W Carolina

66.6#311

UNC Asheville

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUNC Asheville

Style match: ball movement

UNC Asheville creates off the dribble (assists on 40.4% of its baskets); W Carolina breaks up passing offenses (assists on 48.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 41.9% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageW Carolina

Where W Carolina scores: the offensive glass

W Carolina rebounds 35.4% of its own misses (#36); UNC Asheville lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#218). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUNC Asheville

Where UNC Asheville scores: shooting

UNC Asheville shoots an effective 51.0% (#194); W Carolina allows 54.9% (#327). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (W Carolina's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Carolina at about 39.9% of its shots from three, UNC Asheville about 37.5%.

ClashUNC Asheville

Style clash: 3-point volume

UNC Asheville rarely shoots threes (33.6% of its shots); W Carolina lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

W Carolina has the ball

OffenseUNC Asheville allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #218

51.3% #175

-0.7 pt/100

16.8% #184

15.5% #252

+1.0 pt/100

35.4% #36

31.3% #218

+2.4 pt/100

31.3% #274

38.7% #279

+0.0 pt/100

71.4% #229

—

-0.1 pt/100

W Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100

UNC Asheville has the ball

OffenseW Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

51.0% #194

54.9% #327

+2.4 pt/100

17.4% #231

14.5% #319

+1.3 pt/100

29.8% #211

26.3% #22

-1.5 pt/100

40.0% #60

37.8% #255

+0.5 pt/100

68.4% #317

—

-0.4 pt/100

UNC Asheville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

W Carolinaoffense vsUNC Ashevilledefense

Share of shots by zone

W Carolina shoots

37.7

5.2

15.7

41.5

UNC Asheville allows

44.2

5.6

11.9

38.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#330	57.3%#125	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#112	36.4%#99	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#106	40.9%#272	38.0%
Three	33.5%#198	32.6%#93	33.7%

UNC Ashevilleoffense vsW Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Asheville shoots

32.0

10.4

24.2

33.5

W Carolina allows

36.6

4.8

15.6

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#232	61.6%#291	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.8%#40	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#67	41.9%#296	38.0%
Three	35.1%#110	36.7%#337	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

W Carolina

−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#182 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#36

Def reb %

73.7%

#22

Turnover %

16.8%

#184

Forced TO %

14.5%

#319

FT rate

31.3%

#274

FT allowed

37.8%

#255

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.7

UNC Asheville

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365

Off reb %

29.8%

#211

Def reb %

68.7%

#218

Turnover %

17.4%

#231

Forced TO %

15.5%

#252

FT rate

40.0%

#60

FT allowed

38.7%

#279

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.9

W Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.1 (#182 of 365) to UNC Asheville’s −1.3 (#249).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Asheville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Toyaz Solomon	F	Sr	6'9"	32-28	33.4	16.9	7.4	2.0	2.2	50.0%	36.3%	2.8	68.4%	32.1%
55	Justin Wright	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	17.1	3.1	3.0	2.3	53.8%	37.3%	3.9	78.8%	30.6%
8	DJ Patrick	G	Sr	6'6"	29-27	33.8	9.6	4.0	0.8	1.0	53.4%	39.3%	6.1	73.2%	17.0%
5	Myles Mayfield	F	Fr	6'8"	32-15	22.9	4.5	4.3	0.8	1.2	62.5%	66.7%	0.1	42.1%	13.0%
13	Daniel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	30-19	20.2	2.8	4.9	0.4	0.9	45.7%	0.0%	0.1	54.3%	11.1%
1	Julian Clarke	PG	So	6'1"	26-0	10.3	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.5	58.1%	40.6%	1.2	55.6%	12.0%
44	Sage Tolentino	F	Jr	7'1"	27-3	9.3	1.1	1.8	0.3	0.3	57.9%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	7.3%
24	Corey Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	18-1	8.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	33.3%	14.3%	0.8	0.0%	7.9%
11	Jakel Powell	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	12.5	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.3	40.3%	28.0%	2.5	77.8%	17.0%
23	David Hermes	F	Sr	6'10"	8-4	11.5	0.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	3.9%
7	Connor Dubsky	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	13.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	83.3%	55.6%	9.0	—	44.6%
2	Rasheed Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	3-1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	18.8%	12.5%	2.7	—	51.7%
10	Hugo Maton	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	24.7%
14	Brayden Rivers	SF	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Mitchell Taylor	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

W Carolina

Against the spread

Season

15-14

Home

7-4

Road

6-10

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.5

Covered 8 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13

Home

5-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	ETSUAdjEM #110	N	L 67–69	+3.0	W+1.0	146.0	U136	102.4	105.5	65.4
Mar 7	MercerAdjEM #161	N	W 77–73	+2.0	W+6.0	154.0	U150	114.5	108.5	67.3
Feb 28	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	W 86–67	+2.0	W+21.0	148.0	O153	135.3	105.4	63.6
Feb 25	MercerAdjEM #161	H	W 78–74	+1.0	W+5.0	157.0	U152	113.6	107.8	68.6
Feb 21	VMIAdjEM #361	A	W 81–62	−9.0	W+10.0	155.0	U143	128.3	98.2	63.2
Feb 18	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	H	W 91–77	−6.0	W+8.0	155.0	O168	129.1	109.3	70.5
Feb 14	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 81–76	+2.0	W+7.0	151.5	O157	117.6	110.4	68.9
Feb 11	The CitadelAdjEM #348	H	W 87–49	−9.5	W+28.5	146.5	U136	139.3	78.5	62.4
Feb 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 66–77	+4.0	L−7.0	154.0	U143	96.0	112.0	68.7
Feb 4	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 78–81	−1.5	L−4.5	154.5	O159	116.6	121.1	66.9

UNC Asheville

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

5-7

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-8

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 71–75	+13.0	W+9.0	147.5	U146	104.6	110.5	67.9
Mar 6	LongwoodAdjEM #248	N	W 85–82 OT	+1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O167	111.0	107.1	76.5
Feb 28	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	L 75–92	−4.0	L−21.0	149.5	O167	105.9	129.9	70.8
Feb 26	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 77–71	−12.5	L−6.5	145.5	O148	124.2	114.6	62.0
Feb 21	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 74–73 OT	−2.0	L−1.0	149.0	U147	104.3	102.9	71.0
Feb 19	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 48–74	+15.0	L−11.0	152.0	U122	74.6	115.0	64.4
Feb 14	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	L 57–58	−4.5	L−5.5	136.5	U115	90.5	92.1	63.0
Feb 12	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	W 79–74	+2.0	W+7.0	142.5	O153	117.1	109.7	67.5
Feb 4	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 76–67	−6.5	W+2.5	140.5	O143	112.5	99.2	67.6
Jan 31	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 71–84	+10.0	L−3.0	150.5	O155	109.5	129.5	64.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W CarolinaUNC Asheville

Efficiency

109.3

106.1

111.3

108.9

68.7

66.6

—

Shooting

50.4%

51.0%

50.6%

50.1%

33.5%

35.1%

71.4%

68.4%

31.3%

40.0%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

17.4%

14.5%

15.5%

35.4%

29.8%

26.3%

31.3%

8.9%

9.3%

7.7%

Style

40.9%

33.6%

41.2%

44.9%

9.6%

10.4%

44.3%

40.4%

33.4%

24.1%

Roster

2.42

3.00

6'5.5"

6'6.3"

85.6%

82.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Carolina

Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 86.9%

Lost

Cord Stansberry 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Titian DeRosa no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UNC Asheville

Returning minutes: 82.9%Returning production: 77.5%

Lost

Kam Taylor 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Brayden Rivers no D1 minutes last season
Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 19	2025-26	UNC Asheville 73 – 80 W Carolina

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.