CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSojka Pavilion, Lewisburg, PA
Akron
Efficiency #48
2025-26: 29-6 · 20-1 conf
@
Bucknell
Efficiency #334
2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
81.6
win 81%
Projected
71.4
win 19%
No line posted yet.
Model: AKR −10.2 · total 152.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Bucknell 68.1, Akron 70.2 → 69.9 possessions
+3.5
Bucknell offense vs Akron defense
−6.5
Akron offense vs Bucknell defense
+7.7
Projected total
152.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Bucknell offense vs Akron defense
−6.5
Akron offense vs Bucknell defense
−7.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Akron by 10.2
10.2
Akron side ◂▸ Bucknell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bucknell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Akron is the faster team (71.1, #47 of 365) and Bucknell the slower (66.9, #247). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.9
model
Projected team totals
81.6 / 71.4
Akron / Bucknell
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#38
Akron
68.1#202
Bucknell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageAkron
Where Akron scores: shooting
Akron shoots an effective 58.2% (#9); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 57.0%, 5.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashAkron
Style match: ball movement
Akron assists on 57.1% of its made baskets; Bucknell allows assists on 61.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageBucknell
Where Bucknell struggles: ball control
Bucknell turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (#320); Akron forces turnovers on 18.3% of opponent possessions (#86). Expect about 19.0%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashAkron
Style match: 3-point volume
Akron takes 44.8% of its shots from three; Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.7% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bucknell, Akron, Bucknell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Akron at about 47.7% of its shots from three, Bucknell about 44.4%.
GlassBucknell
Bucknell gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Bucknell's offense.
Akron has the ball
OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg
58.2% #9
54.7% #323
+8.2 pt/100
15.5% #102
17.9% #99
+0.0 pt/100
33.4% #78
31.3% #216
+1.5 pt/100
29.2% #327
35.3% #186
-0.3 pt/100
75.4% #69
—
+0.3 pt/100
Akron net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.7 pts/100
Bucknell has the ball
OffenseAkron allowsvs D1 avg
48.5% #304
51.2% #173
-2.3 pt/100
19.0% #320
18.3% #86
-2.7 pt/100
27.0% #295
29.9% #156
-1.6 pt/100
29.8% #314
30.4% #70
-0.7 pt/100
76.8% #35
—
+0.4 pt/100
Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Akronoffense vsBucknelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Akron shoots
Bucknell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.6%#4460.3%#24558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)53.8%#345.5%#30939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.8%#4140.7%#26838.0%
Three38.2%#1537.0%#34433.7%
Bucknelloffense vsAkrondefense
Share of shots by zone
Bucknell shoots
Akron allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.8%#20154.9%#5858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.2%#26536.3%#9639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33632.7%#2538.0%
Three30.6%#32835.5%#28433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Akron
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#55 of 365
Off reb %
33.4%
#78
Def reb %
70.1%
#156
Turnover %
15.5%
#102
Forced TO %
18.3%
#86
FT rate
29.2%
#327
FT allowed
30.4%
#70
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Bucknell
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#295
Def reb %
68.7%
#216
Turnover %
19.0%
#320
Forced TO %
17.9%
#99
FT rate
29.8%
#314
FT allowed
35.3%
#186
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed0.0

Akron has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#55 of 365) to Bucknell’s −3.4 (#310).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Akron2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Tahj Staveskieat Incarnate WordGSr6'1"31-3035.317.33.94.12.752.0%37.3%6.279.8%31.1%
12Evan MahaffeyFSr6'6"35-3528.510.25.63.41.360.5%30.4%1.357.6%19.0%
10Max Burtonat W MichiganFSr6'10"30-3024.65.95.21.61.447.9%0.0%0.169.1%16.3%
8Ty Penceat Illinois StGSr6'6"36-2323.59.44.41.60.959.2%36.0%2.169.9%21.9%
4Buddy Hammer Jr.at North TexasFSr6'7"29-014.24.12.80.40.651.5%31.6%0.777.3%16.9%
21Zach HalliganFJr6'5"33-2311.92.72.30.70.351.5%25.7%1.180.0%12.5%
23Marvin Musiime-KamaliFJr6'6"35-08.82.02.00.50.370.0%—0.065.2%11.1%
22Colin Whiteat Ohio StateFJr6'6"29-18.80.91.00.40.242.9%11.1%0.620.0%8.5%
5Chabi BarreFSr6'10"18-06.43.12.00.10.676.2%—0.077.4%21.9%
9Cody HeadGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Josh HendersonGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Tai PerkinsGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
19Devan ChristionFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Exavier WilsonGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15RJ JonesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Max Burton (from W Michigan), Buddy Hammer Jr. (from North Texas), Ty Pence (from Illinois St), Tahj Staveskie (from Incarnate Word), Colin White (from Ohio State)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
AkronBucknell
Efficiency
116.2
101.2
106.5
111.7
70.2
68.1
—
—
Shooting
58.2%
48.5%
58.8%
50.4%
38.2%
30.6%
75.4%
76.8%
29.2%
29.8%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
19.0%
18.3%
17.9%
33.4%
27.0%
29.9%
31.3%
9.0%
11.1%
8.4%
11.5%
Style
44.8%
42.7%
42.0%
43.4%
15.6%
9.9%
57.1%
54.0%
36.9%
24.0%
Roster
3.81
2.30
6'5.6"
6'4.5"
25.9%
92.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Akron
Returning minutes: 25.9%Returning production: 25.3%
Lost
  • Tavari Johnson 31.9 mpg, 19.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shammah Scott 26.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amani Lyles 26.4 mpg, 14.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Eric Mahaffey 21.3 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Sharron Young 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bowen Hardman 18.4 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Tahj Staveskie from Incarnate Word · 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg last season
  • Max Burton from W Michigan · 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
  • Ty Pence from Illinois St · 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Buddy Hammer Jr. from North Texas · 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Colin White from Ohio State · 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
  • Josh Henderson no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Bucknell
Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%
Lost
  • Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami
Added
  • Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 32025-26Bucknell 77 – 97 Akron

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.