CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceKennedy Family Athletic Complex, Lowell, MA
Saint Peter's
Efficiency #225
2025-26: 17-12 · 14-7 conf
@
UMass Lowell
Efficiency #308
2025-26: 15-18 · 10-8 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · 6:00 PM ET
73.1
win 49%
Projected
73.5
win 51%
No line posted yet.
Model: UML −0.4 · total 146.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UMass Lowell 69.5, Saint Peter's 67.1 → 68.3 possessions
−0.1
UMass Lowell offense vs Saint Peter's defense
−2.5
Saint Peter's offense vs UMass Lowell defense
+1.0
Projected total
146.6
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UMass Lowell offense vs Saint Peter's defense
−2.5
Saint Peter's offense vs UMass Lowell defense
−1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
UMass Lowell by 0.4
0.4
Saint Peter's side ◂▸ UMass Lowell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UMass Lowell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass Lowell is the faster team (68.9, #157 of 365) and Saint Peter's the slower (65.5, #316). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.6
model
Projected team totals
73.1 / 73.5
Saint Peter's / UMass Lowell
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#283
Saint Peter's
69.5#80
UMass Lowell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUMass Lowell
Where UMass Lowell struggles: shooting
UMass Lowell shoots an effective 49.8% (#247); Saint Peter's allows 48.1% (#39). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversUMass Lowell
UMass Lowell turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.6% is worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions against UMass Lowell's offense.
DefenseSaint Peter's
Saint Peter's's ball-hawking
Saint Peter's ranks #7 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of UMass Lowell's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashUMass Lowell
Style match: 3-point volume
UMass Lowell rarely shoots threes (31.3% of its shots); Saint Peter's runs teams off the line (35.5% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.4% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSaint Peter's
Where Saint Peter's scores: the offensive glass
Saint Peter's rebounds 37.0% of its own misses (#16); UMass Lowell lets opponents grab 29.4% of their own misses (#126). Expect about 34.5%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassUMass Lowell
UMass Lowell owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.1% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for UMass Lowell's offense.
Saint Peter's has the ball
OffenseUMass Lowell allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #347
53.5% #284
-2.4 pt/100
17.7% #249
14.2% #329
+1.4 pt/100
37.0% #16
29.4% #126
+2.5 pt/100
35.5% #163
28.3% #34
-0.5 pt/100
73.6% #148
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Peter's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
UMass Lowell has the ball
OffenseSaint Peter's allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #247
48.1% #39
-3.5 pt/100
18.0% #271
20.0% #22
-3.4 pt/100
32.7% #98
34.7% #330
+2.2 pt/100
34.9% #183
46.4% #354
+0.8 pt/100
65.7% #355
—
-0.6 pt/100
UMass Lowell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Peter'soffense vsUMass Lowelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Peter's shoots
UMass Lowell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.6%#35158.2%#15358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.8%#19841.2%#21339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21643.1%#33038.0%
Three31.0%#32134.6%#22633.7%
UMass Lowelloffense vsSaint Peter'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
UMass Lowell shoots
Saint Peter's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.5%#32651.7%#1358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.5%#1841.1%#21039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16639.6%#22738.0%
Three32.2%#26932.1%#6833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Peter's
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#189 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#16
Def reb %
65.3%
#330
Turnover %
17.7%
#249
Forced TO %
20.0%
#22
FT rate
35.5%
#163
FT allowed
46.4%
#354
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−2.9
UMass Lowell
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#167 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#98
Def reb %
70.6%
#126
Turnover %
18.0%
#271
Forced TO %
14.2%
#329
FT rate
34.9%
#183
FT allowed
28.3%
#34
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−1.7
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+1.8

UMass Lowell has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#167 of 365) to Saint Peter's’s −0.2 (#189).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Saint Peter's2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Bryce EatonGJr6'0"29-2127.211.13.04.02.343.9%31.0%4.982.4%30.9%
15Bryson Wilsonat BinghamtonGSr6'5"28-2228.19.94.40.92.044.8%24.1%1.977.5%24.9%
7Elijah PerkinsGSr6'4"22-1925.43.92.91.80.836.3%0.0%0.555.6%13.9%
2Shaedon SimpsonGJr6'6"18-411.23.31.60.30.545.7%33.3%1.884.2%19.4%
3Trey Pattersonat RiceFSr6'9"13-08.11.41.60.00.430.4%22.2%0.766.7%17.7%
0Phoenix Glassnorat ToledoGSo6'0"6-06.33.00.80.30.353.3%33.3%1.0100.0%25.6%
17Bourgeois Tshiloboat Weber StFSo6'8"7-04.92.62.00.10.469.2%—0.00.0%24.0%
14Jonathan Noudjihidiat UC DavisCJr6'11"3-06.00.31.70.31.00.0%—0.033.3%16.6%
24Robert WilmoteGJr6'4"1-03.02.00.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—17.3%
23Akil WatsonFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Ken WalkerGSr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Mason SantiagoGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Xavier ThomasFJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Phoenix Glassnor (from Toledo), Jonathan Noudjihidi (from UC Davis), Trey Patterson (from Rice), Bourgeois Tshilobo (from Weber St), Bryson Wilson (from Binghamton)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Saint Peter'sUMass Lowell
Efficiency
105.4
105.1
108.1
113.0
67.1
69.5
—
—
Shooting
46.4%
49.8%
46.2%
50.5%
31.0%
32.2%
73.6%
65.7%
35.5%
34.9%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
18.0%
20.0%
14.2%
37.0%
32.7%
34.7%
29.4%
9.3%
11.9%
10.0%
10.4%
Style
38.7%
31.3%
39.9%
51.8%
17.0%
11.9%
53.2%
45.4%
36.5%
25.5%
Roster
3.54
2.72
6'3.5"
6'4.6"
26.5%
92.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Saint Peter's
Returning minutes: 26.5%Returning production: 21.7%
Lost
  • Brent Bland 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jahki Gupton 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zaakir Williamson 21.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • TJ Robinson 18.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lucas Scroggins 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Adetokunbo Bakare 10.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Bryson Wilson from Binghamton · 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Trey Patterson from Rice · 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Phoenix Glassnor from Toledo · 1.1 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Bourgeois Tshilobo from Weber St · 1.1 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Jonathan Noudjihidi from UC Davis · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
  • Xavier Thomas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UMass Lowell
Returning minutes: 92.9%Returning production: 96.0%
Lost
  • Khalil Farmer 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 222025-26UMass Lowell 66 – 68 Saint Peter's

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.