CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCintas Center, Cincinnati, OH

Cleveland St

Efficiency #330

2025-26: 11-22 · 7-15 conf

Xavier

Efficiency #129

2025-26: 15-18 · 7-15 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · TBD

76.4

win 13%

Projected

89.5

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: XAV −13.1 · total 165.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Xavier 70.3, Cleveland St 69.9 → 71.8 possessions

+7.6

Xavier offense vs Cleveland St defense

+9.5

Cleveland St offense vs Xavier defense

+0.6

Projected total

165.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Xavier offense vs Cleveland St defense

+9.5

Cleveland St offense vs Xavier defense

−0.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Xavier by 13.1

13.1

Cleveland St side ◂▸ Xavier side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +13.0 against +13.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Xavier.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cleveland St is the faster team (71.4, #39 of 365) and Xavier the slower (71.2, #44). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

165.9

model

Projected team totals

76.4 / 89.5

Cleveland St / Xavier

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.9#59

Cleveland St

70.3#33

Xavier

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageXavier

Where Xavier scores: shooting

Xavier shoots an effective 51.8% (#155); Cleveland St allows 57.2% (#360). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCleveland St

Where Cleveland St scores: shooting

Cleveland St shoots an effective 54.2% (#62); Xavier allows 54.1% (#302). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Xavier averages 71.2 possessions per 40, Cleveland St 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversXavier

Xavier protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.1% is worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions for Xavier's offense.

ClashCleveland St

Style match: ball movement

Cleveland St assists on 57.9% of its made baskets; Xavier allows assists on 63.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.0% — both habits push the same way.

ClashXavier

Style match: ball movement

Xavier assists on 62.2% of its made baskets; Cleveland St allows assists on 58.6% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.8% — both habits push the same way.

Cleveland St has the ball

OffenseXavier allowsvs D1 avg

54.2% #62

54.1% #302

+4.5 pt/100

17.8% #262

15.5% #248

+0.2 pt/100

27.0% #294

29.5% #136

-1.7 pt/100

37.9% #105

32.6% #119

-0.0 pt/100

76.2% #48

—

+0.3 pt/100

Cleveland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100

Xavier has the ball

OffenseCleveland St allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #155

57.2% #360

+4.7 pt/100

13.9% #21

15.1% #278

+3.3 pt/100

26.5% #311

36.6% #356

+0.2 pt/100

28.1% #341

35.5% #196

-0.4 pt/100

72.9% #174

—

+0.0 pt/100

Xavier net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Cleveland Stoffense vsXavierdefense

Share of shots by zone

Cleveland St shoots

33.2

4.9

11.2

50.7

Xavier allows

42.1

5.3

15.6

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.0%#160	62.0%#301	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	36.5%#100	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#310	40.6%#261	38.0%
Three	37.5%#21	34.8%#237	33.7%

Xavieroffense vsCleveland Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Xavier shoots

31.9

6.8

21.1

40.2

Cleveland St allows

38.0

6.0

12.0

44.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#190	67.1%#361	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.2%#61	43.0%#252	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.6%#199	42.0%#305	38.0%
Three	36.5%#39	36.2%#309	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Cleveland St

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#331 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#294

Def reb %

63.4%

#356

Turnover %

17.8%

#262

Forced TO %

15.1%

#278

FT rate

37.9%

#105

FT allowed

35.5%

#196

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Xavier

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#223 of 365

Off reb %

26.5%

#311

Def reb %

70.5%

#136

Turnover %

13.9%

#21

Forced TO %

15.5%

#248

FT rate

28.1%

#341

FT allowed

32.6%

#119

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.7

Xavier has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#223 of 365) to Cleveland St’s −4.2 (#331).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cleveland St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tre Beard	G	Sr	5'10"	30-30	30.9	12.6	3.2	3.3	1.2	58.6%	41.9%	6.8	85.7%	20.5%
2	Jaidon Lipscomb	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	27.4	12.9	3.1	3.0	2.0	61.2%	41.7%	7.0	85.5%	24.5%
1	Chevalier Emery	G	Jr	6'0"	33-1	21.8	12.7	1.2	2.0	2.0	54.9%	38.2%	4.0	78.0%	32.3%
7	Dayan Nessah	F	So	6'7"	26-26	27.4	15.5	6.4	2.5	2.7	57.0%	33.3%	0.9	75.0%	30.9%
0	Foster Wonders	G	Sr	6'5"	31-9	22.1	5.4	2.0	0.8	0.4	53.0%	34.4%	3.9	72.7%	13.7%
22	Josiah Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	22-14	26.6	9.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	49.4%	33.0%	4.1	81.3%	20.4%
24	Kamari Jones	G	So	6'4"	23-4	10.9	4.3	1.0	0.4	0.4	47.1%	31.7%	2.6	78.3%	23.6%
5	David Giddens	G	Jr	6'7"	22-3	10.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	29.6%	2.5	70.0%	22.3%
23	Manny Hill	G	Sr	6'0"	19-0	6.9	2.4	1.1	0.7	0.6	47.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	23.6%
15	Ivan Spirov	F	Jr	6'8"	17-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	54.4%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.7%
13	Lucas Burton	F	Sr	6'8"	13-1	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.3%
50	Kevo St. Hilaire	F	Fr	6'10"	15-0	5.2	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	40.0%	14.4%
11	Waqo Tessema	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Xavier2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Malik Messina-Moore	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	33.2	10.9	3.0	3.8	1.5	46.7%	31.8%	4.8	80.0%	20.4%
4	Filip Borovicanin	F	Sr	6'9"	33-32	31.2	10.8	7.4	4.2	1.8	49.3%	34.9%	3.2	87.3%	21.7%
24	Jovan Milicevic	F	So	6'10"	33-31	26.1	12.4	3.9	1.4	1.3	54.9%	42.9%	4.7	72.8%	26.0%
0	Roddie Anderson III	G	Sr	6'3"	33-5	23.8	10.9	3.3	2.2	1.3	45.7%	31.4%	3.7	72.2%	29.3%
3	All Wright	G	So	6'3"	33-28	22.2	7.5	1.6	2.0	0.6	56.5%	42.2%	2.7	84.1%	17.4%
7	Isaiah Walker	G	Sr	6'5"	32-1	17.0	4.7	2.7	0.7	0.3	57.6%	41.1%	1.8	80.0%	14.0%
22	Pape N'Diaye	F	So	7'0"	29-0	9.3	2.0	2.3	0.2	0.2	56.4%	42.9%	0.7	55.6%	11.7%
21	Anthony Robinson	F	So	6'10"	26-3	10.0	2.3	2.4	0.3	0.6	54.3%	—	0.0	43.4%	16.5%
9	Mier Panoam	G	Jr	6'2"	7-0	5.6	0.9	0.9	0.7	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	18.8%
31	Ian Sabourin	F	Sr	6'4"	6-0	1.2	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	50.0%	23.5%
20	Henry Thole	F	So	6'7"	5-0	1.2	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	17.8%
25	Michael Wolf	G	Sr	6'1"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	8.9%
2	Gabriel Pozzato	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Kason Westphal	C	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Luke Naser	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cleveland St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tre Beard	G	Sr	5'10"	30-30	30.9	12.6	3.2	3.3	1.2	58.6%	41.9%	6.8	85.7%	20.5%
2	Jaidon Lipscomb	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	27.4	12.9	3.1	3.0	2.0	61.2%	41.7%	7.0	85.5%	24.5%
1	Chevalier Emery	G	Jr	6'0"	33-1	21.8	12.7	1.2	2.0	2.0	54.9%	38.2%	4.0	78.0%	32.3%
7	Dayan Nessah	F	So	6'7"	26-26	27.4	15.5	6.4	2.5	2.7	57.0%	33.3%	0.9	75.0%	30.9%
0	Foster Wonders	G	Sr	6'5"	31-9	22.1	5.4	2.0	0.8	0.4	53.0%	34.4%	3.9	72.7%	13.7%
22	Josiah Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	22-14	26.6	9.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	49.4%	33.0%	4.1	81.3%	20.4%
24	Kamari Jones	G	So	6'4"	23-4	10.9	4.3	1.0	0.4	0.4	47.1%	31.7%	2.6	78.3%	23.6%
5	David Giddens	G	Jr	6'7"	22-3	10.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	29.6%	2.5	70.0%	22.3%
23	Manny Hill	G	Sr	6'0"	19-0	6.9	2.4	1.1	0.7	0.6	47.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	23.6%
15	Ivan Spirov	F	Jr	6'8"	17-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	54.4%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.7%
13	Lucas Burton	F	Sr	6'8"	13-1	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.3%
50	Kevo St. Hilaire	F	Fr	6'10"	15-0	5.2	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	40.0%	14.4%
11	Waqo Tessema	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Cleveland St

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

4-8

Road

6-10

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

7-5

Road

10-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +5.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 61–90	+14.5	L−14.5	161.5	U151	88.1	130.0	69.2
Mar 2	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 101–93	−1.0	W+7.0	169.5	O194	121.7	112.1	83.0
Feb 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 64–83	+12.5	L−6.5	157.5	U147	100.1	129.8	63.9
Feb 25	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 70–81	+8.0	L−3.0	165.5	U151	97.0	112.2	72.2
Feb 22	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 86–92	+3.0	L−3.0	163.0	O178	112.8	120.7	76.2
Feb 18	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 82–106	+11.0	L−13.0	156.5	O188	116.8	151.0	70.2
Feb 15	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 90–102	+7.5	L−4.5	158.5	O192	121.2	137.4	74.2
Feb 12	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 68–85	+4.0	L−13.0	154.0	U153	108.3	135.3	62.8
Feb 7	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	L 74–82	+2.5	L−5.5	168.5	U156	98.7	109.3	75.0
Feb 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 91–78	+8.0	W+21.0	169.5	U169	127.7	109.5	71.3

Xavier

Against the spread

Season

18-15

Home

10-8

Road

5-6

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

25-7-1

Home

14-4

Road

8-2-1

Last 10

9-1

avg vs total +13.2

Over 6 straightOver in 7 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#6UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 68–93	+16.5	L−8.5	151.0	O161	105.5	144.4	64.4
Mar 11	MarquetteAdjEM #100	N	W 89–87	+4.0	W+6.0	157.0	O176	116.3	113.7	76.6
Mar 7	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 78–91	+13.5	W+0.5	154.0	O169	109.9	128.2	71.0
Mar 3	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 68–77	+2.0	L−7.0	144.5	O145	107.2	121.4	63.4
Feb 28	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	H	W 91–84	−4.5	W+2.5	154.0	O175	127.4	117.6	71.4
Feb 25	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 84–94	+5.5	L−4.5	170.0	O178	120.9	135.3	69.5
Feb 21	ButlerAdjEM #87	A	L 75–80	+4.5	L−0.5	159.5	U155	110.4	117.7	67.9
Feb 17	VillanovaAdjEM #40	H	L 89–92 OT	+4.0	W+1.0	153.5	O181	112.9	116.7	78.8
Feb 14	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	W 96–88	−2.0	W+6.0	157.5	O184	133.1	122.1	72.1
Feb 9	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 82–87 OT	+16.5	W+11.5	159.5	O169	99.1	105.1	82.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Cleveland StXavier

Efficiency

108.3

111.7

118.5

109.4

69.9

70.3

—

Shooting

54.2%

51.8%

52.0%

49.8%

37.5%

36.5%

76.2%

72.9%

37.9%

28.1%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

13.9%

15.1%

15.5%

27.0%

26.5%

36.6%

29.5%

9.5%

8.2%

14.4%

10.2%

Style

50.8%

40.6%

33.3%

38.8%

17.7%

17.2%

57.9%

62.2%

36.1%

27.4%

Roster

3.30

3.23

6'3.7"

6'6.5"

82.4%

84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Cleveland St

Returning minutes: 82.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Preist Ryan 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Holden Pierre-Louis 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac

Added

Waqo Tessema no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Xavier

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 79.8%

Lost

Tre Carroll 30.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Gabriel Pozzato no D1 minutes last season
Kason Westphal no D1 minutes last season
Luke Naser no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.