CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUniversity Credit Union Center, Davis, CA
Alabama St
Efficiency #324
2025-26: 10-22 · 7-12 conf
@
UC Davis
Efficiency #185
2025-26: 19-14 · 12-10 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
69.7
win 19%
Projected
79.9
win 81%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCD −10.2 · total 149.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC Davis 69.3, Alabama St 69.6 → 70.6 possessions
+5.0
UC Davis offense vs Alabama St defense
+1.3
Alabama St offense vs UC Davis defense
−4.9
Projected total
149.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC Davis offense vs Alabama St defense
+1.3
Alabama St offense vs UC Davis defense
+4.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
UC Davis by 10.2
10.2
Alabama St side ◂▸ UC Davis side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.3 against +10.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC Davis.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Davis is the faster team (71.3, #41 of 365) and Alabama St the slower (71.3, #42). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.6
model
Projected team totals
69.7 / 79.9
Alabama St / UC Davis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#75
Alabama St
69.3#99
UC Davis
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
UC Davis averages 71.3 possessions per 40, Alabama St 71.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageAlabama St
Where Alabama St struggles: ball control
Alabama St turns it over on 18.3% of possessions (#287); UC Davis forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#30). Expect about 19.5%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUC Davis
Where UC Davis struggles: ball control
UC Davis turns it over on 17.9% of possessions (#266); Alabama St forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#60). Expect about 18.7%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassUC Davis
UC Davis gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against UC Davis's offense.
Alabama St has the ball
OffenseUC Davis allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #335
51.7% #197
-3.1 pt/100
18.3% #287
19.8% #30
-3.4 pt/100
31.9% #128
30.5% #182
+0.7 pt/100
34.9% #185
39.1% #290
+0.3 pt/100
70.5% #254
—
-0.2 pt/100
Alabama St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.7 pts/100
UC Davis has the ball
OffenseAlabama St allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #157
52.2% #222
+1.0 pt/100
17.9% #266
18.7% #60
-2.3 pt/100
25.2% #334
31.5% #230
-1.9 pt/100
40.5% #53
42.3% #328
+0.9 pt/100
75.3% #74
—
+0.3 pt/100
UC Davis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersAlabama Stoffense vsUC Davisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama St shoots
38.1
5.0
17.4
39.4
UC Davis allows
44.1
5.0
12.7
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.4%#291 | 58.4%#164 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.9%#317 | 41.2%#213 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.3%#307 | 33.6%#42 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.8%#288 | 33.8%#172 | 33.7% |
UC Davisoffense vsAlabama Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Davis shoots
35.7
3.8
16.7
43.8
Alabama St allows
40.3
5.4
14.9
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#141 | 61.2%#275 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#236 | 35.3%#65 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.0%#189 | 35.0%#79 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#149 | 34.2%#194 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersAlabama St
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#246 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#128
Def reb %
68.5%
#230
Turnover %
18.3%
#287
Forced TO %
18.7%
#60
FT rate
34.9%
#185
FT allowed
42.3%
#328
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−1.8
UC Davis
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#176 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#334
Def reb %
69.5%
#182
Turnover %
17.9%
#266
Forced TO %
19.8%
#30
FT rate
40.5%
#53
FT allowed
39.1%
#290
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
UC Davis has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#176 of 365) to Alabama St’s −1.3 (#246).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Alabama St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Micah Simpson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 43.8% | 33.2% | 6.9 | 76.5% | 29.6% | |
| 11 | Cameron Palesse | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 27.7 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42.2% | 37.5% | 1.3 | 64.0% | 14.2% | |
| 24 | Jerquarius Stanback | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 52.9% | 14.3% | 0.7 | 67.8% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | Tyler Byrd | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-12 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51.4% | 30.0% | 2.6 | 77.4% | 24.8% | |
| 20 | Asjon Anderson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 28-20 | 26.6 | 14.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 42.8% | 31.2% | 6.1 | 83.0% | 36.0% | |
| 1 | Damarien Yates | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-0 | 17.1 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.5% | 2.7 | 64.8% | 23.2% | |
| 23 | R'Chaun King | F | Fr | 6'6" | 29-17 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 59.5% | — | 0.0 | 72.1% | 20.1% | |
| 5 | Tyler Mack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 16-0 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 46.8% | 27.6% | 4.8 | 50.0% | 19.0% | |
| 4 | Mario Andrews | C | Sr | 6'6" | 31-1 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 38.9% | 12.3% | |
| 12 | Tyler Mason | F | Jr | 6'9" | 22-1 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 60.0% | 0.5 | 40.6% | 23.9% | |
| 25 | JaSteven Walker | F | Jr | 6'10" | 16-14 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 47.0% | 31.0% | 1.8 | 62.5% | 18.8% | |
| 3 | Trey Miller | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 22.0 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 43.8% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 23.7% | |
| 22 | Kevin Alabi | F | So | 6'7" | 6-0 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 14.3% | 18.3% | |
| 13 | Jordon Marshall | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 21.1% | |
| 7 | Damarion Bonds | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Damion Cox Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UC Davis2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Connor Sevilla | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 13.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 53.4% | 39.9% | 5.4 | 90.3% | 22.2% | |
| 2 | Marcus Wilson | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 26.4 | 12.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 48.1% | 32.4% | 3.1 | 78.5% | 29.1% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Chappell | F | So | 6'9" | 33-18 | 24.1 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 52.3% | 35.6% | 4.9 | 60.0% | 20.6% | |
| 0 | Brayden Fagbemi | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-3 | 25.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 46.8% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 64.7% | 19.7% | |
| 7 | Niko Rocak | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 59.7% | 36.1% | 2.6 | 68.1% | 21.8% | |
| 36 | Nils Cooper | G | Jr | 6'6" | 27-23 | 24.7 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 57.2% | 23.8% | 1.6 | 73.7% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Carl Daughtery Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-9 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 55.1% | 42.0% | 4.7 | 73.3% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Omer Suljanovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 14.7 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 46.6% | 24.6% | 1.8 | 68.3% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Jalen Stokes | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-7 | 13.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 48.9% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 87.8% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Cyril Franklin Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 19-0 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 13.6% | |
| 8 | Chase Rawlins | G | Fr | 6'5" | 19-0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 54.8% | 42.9% | 0.4 | 77.8% | 17.8% | |
| 14 | Abdullah Amzil | F | Fr | 6'7" | 15-0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 35.7% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 10.3% | |
| 11 | Ylan Esso-Essis | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Alabama St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Micah Simpson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 43.8% | 33.2% | 6.9 | 76.5% | 29.6% | |
| 11 | Cameron Palesse | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 27.7 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42.2% | 37.5% | 1.3 | 64.0% | 14.2% | |
| 24 | Jerquarius Stanback | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 52.9% | 14.3% | 0.7 | 67.8% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | Tyler Byrd | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-12 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51.4% | 30.0% | 2.6 | 77.4% | 24.8% | |
| 20 | Asjon Anderson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 28-20 | 26.6 | 14.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 42.8% | 31.2% | 6.1 | 83.0% | 36.0% | |
| 1 | Damarien Yates | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-0 | 17.1 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.5% | 2.7 | 64.8% | 23.2% | |
| 23 | R'Chaun King | F | Fr | 6'6" | 29-17 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 59.5% | — | 0.0 | 72.1% | 20.1% | |
| 5 | Tyler Mack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 16-0 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 46.8% | 27.6% | 4.8 | 50.0% | 19.0% | |
| 4 | Mario Andrews | C | Sr | 6'6" | 31-1 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 38.9% | 12.3% | |
| 12 | Tyler Mason | F | Jr | 6'9" | 22-1 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 60.0% | 0.5 | 40.6% | 23.9% | |
| 25 | JaSteven Walker | F | Jr | 6'10" | 16-14 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 47.0% | 31.0% | 1.8 | 62.5% | 18.8% | |
| 3 | Trey Miller | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 22.0 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 43.8% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 23.7% | |
| 22 | Kevin Alabi | F | So | 6'7" | 6-0 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 14.3% | 18.3% | |
| 13 | Jordon Marshall | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 21.1% | |
| 7 | Damarion Bonds | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Damion Cox Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Alabama St
Against the spread
Season
13-18
Home
4-4
Road
8-11
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-17-1
Home
2-6
Road
10-9
Last 10
3-6-1
avg vs total −6.2
Over in 1 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Alcorn St | N | L 65–77 | −7.5 | L−19.5 | 142.0 | P142 | 92.4 | 109.4 | 70.4 |
| Mar 5 | Grambling | H | L 63–65 | −2.5 | L−4.5 | 145.5 | U128 | 89.0 | 91.9 | 70.8 |
| Mar 3 | Southern | H | L 64–71 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 153.0 | U135 | 90.2 | 100.0 | 71.0 |
| Feb 28 | Alabama A&M | A | W 89–88 | +1.0 | W+2.0 | 143.0 | O177 | 132.5 | 131.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 21 | Florida A&M | A | L 63–76 | −1.5 | L−14.5 | 144.5 | U139 | 90.2 | 108.8 | 69.8 |
| Feb 19 | Bethune | A | L 71–82 | +5.5 | L−5.5 | 148.0 | O153 | 99.4 | 114.8 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | Miss Valley St | H | W 92–55 | −16.5 | W+20.5 | 143.0 | O147 | 127.3 | 76.1 | 72.3 |
| Feb 14 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | W 79–61 | −3.5 | W+14.5 | 150.0 | U140 | 109.1 | 84.2 | 72.4 |
| Feb 9 | Southern | A | L 68–69 | +7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U137 | 103.2 | 104.7 | 65.9 |
| Feb 7 | Grambling | A | L 47–57 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 144.5 | U104 | 74.4 | 90.3 | 63.1 |
UC Davis
Against the spread
Season
17-13-1
Home
9-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +0.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
7-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −6.0
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Fullerton | N | L 70–82 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 155.0 | U152 | 84.4 | 98.9 | 82.9 |
| Mar 11 | Santa Barbara | N | W 79–73 | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 139.5 | O152 | 107.2 | 99.1 | 73.7 |
| Mar 7 | UC Irvine | A | L 69–79 OT | +8.5 | L−1.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 92.6 | 106.0 | 74.6 |
| Mar 5 | Long Beach St | A | W 76–70 OT | −2.0 | W+4.0 | 150.0 | U146 | 95.7 | 88.2 | 79.4 |
| Feb 26 | Hawai'i | H | L 73–77 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 147.0 | O150 | 106.2 | 112.0 | 68.8 |
| Feb 21 | UC Riverside | A | W 78–73 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 150.0 | O151 | 104.9 | 98.2 | 74.4 |
| Feb 19 | Fullerton | A | L 92–93 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 157.0 | O185 | 138.1 | 139.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Long Beach St | H | W 71–54 | −5.0 | W+12.0 | 149.5 | U125 | 100.8 | 76.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 12 | UC San Diego | A | L 51–68 | +6.0 | L−11.0 | 150.5 | U119 | 72.5 | 96.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 7 | Cal Poly | H | W 67–58 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 169.0 | U125 | 96.6 | 83.6 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAlabama StUC Davis
Efficiency
102.1
107.2
111.6
107.8
69.6
69.3
—
—
Shooting
47.1%
51.8%
46.8%
51.9%
31.8%
34.4%
70.5%
75.3%
34.9%
40.5%
Ball control & glass
18.3%
17.9%
18.7%
19.8%
31.9%
25.2%
31.5%
30.5%
10.5%
9.2%
11.0%
10.3%
Style
38.5%
43.5%
41.5%
37.0%
17.7%
13.1%
47.6%
59.9%
35.4%
34.0%
Roster
3.02
2.51
6'5"
6'4.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAlabama St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
UC Davis
Returning minutes: 99.7%Returning production: 100.1%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.