CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

W Carolina

Efficiency #217

2025-26: 15-16 · 11-9 conf

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · TBD

73.4

win 23%

Projected

82.2

win 77%

No line posted yet.

Model: BTLR −8.7 · total 155.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Butler 69.3, W Carolina 68.7 → 69.7 possessions

+3.0

Butler offense vs W Carolina defense

+4.6

W Carolina offense vs Butler defense

−0.2

Projected total

155.6

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Butler offense vs W Carolina defense

+4.6

W Carolina offense vs Butler defense

+0.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Butler by 8.7

8.7

W Carolina side ◂▸ Butler side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +8.8 against +8.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Butler.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and W Carolina the slower (68.7, #164). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.6

model

Projected team totals

73.4 / 82.2

W Carolina / Butler

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#147

W Carolina

69.3#97

Butler

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageButler

Where Butler scores: ball control

Butler turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#132); W Carolina forces turnovers on 14.5% of opponent possessions (#319). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageW Carolina

Where W Carolina scores: the offensive glass

W Carolina rebounds 35.4% of its own misses (#36); Butler lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#163). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (W Carolina's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Carolina at about 39.4% of its shots from three, Butler about 38.5%.

ClashButler

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Butler (#58 in offensive rebounding) against W Carolina (#22 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 31.3%. Historically Butler's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

ClashButler

Style clash: 3-point volume

Butler rarely shoots threes (34.9% of its shots); W Carolina lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashButler

Style clash: paint scoring

Butler scores 46.6% of its points in the paint; W Carolina protects the paint (38.8% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

W Carolina has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #218

51.9% #208

-0.2 pt/100

16.8% #184

15.1% #275

+1.3 pt/100

35.4% #36

30.0% #163

+2.0 pt/100

31.3% #274

24.9% #6

-1.0 pt/100

71.4% #229

—

-0.1 pt/100

W Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Butler has the ball

OffenseW Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

54.9% #327

+2.3 pt/100

15.9% #132

14.5% #319

+2.4 pt/100

34.6% #58

26.3% #22

+0.6 pt/100

42.1% #29

37.8% #255

+0.6 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

W Carolinaoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

W Carolina shoots

37.7

5.2

15.7

41.5

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#330	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#112	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#106	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	33.5%#198	33.3%#141	33.7%

Butleroffense vsW Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

W Carolina allows

36.6

4.8

15.6

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	61.6%#291	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	41.9%#296	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	36.7%#337	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

W Carolina

−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#182 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#36

Def reb %

73.7%

#22

Turnover %

16.8%

#184

Forced TO %

14.5%

#319

FT rate

31.3%

#274

FT allowed

37.8%

#255

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to W Carolina’s −0.1 (#182).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

W Carolina

Against the spread

Season

15-14

Home

7-4

Road

6-10

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.5

Covered 8 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13

Home

5-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	ETSUAdjEM #110	N	L 67–69	+3.0	W+1.0	146.0	U136	102.4	105.5	65.4
Mar 7	MercerAdjEM #161	N	W 77–73	+2.0	W+6.0	154.0	U150	114.5	108.5	67.3
Feb 28	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	W 86–67	+2.0	W+21.0	148.0	O153	135.3	105.4	63.6
Feb 25	MercerAdjEM #161	H	W 78–74	+1.0	W+5.0	157.0	U152	113.6	107.8	68.6
Feb 21	VMIAdjEM #361	A	W 81–62	−9.0	W+10.0	155.0	U143	128.3	98.2	63.2
Feb 18	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	H	W 91–77	−6.0	W+8.0	155.0	O168	129.1	109.3	70.5
Feb 14	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 81–76	+2.0	W+7.0	151.5	O157	117.6	110.4	68.9
Feb 11	The CitadelAdjEM #348	H	W 87–49	−9.5	W+28.5	146.5	U136	139.3	78.5	62.4
Feb 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 66–77	+4.0	L−7.0	154.0	U143	96.0	112.0	68.7
Feb 4	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 78–81	−1.5	L−4.5	154.5	O159	116.6	121.1	66.9

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W CarolinaButler

Efficiency

109.3

112.2

111.3

107.4

68.7

69.3

—

Shooting

50.4%

50.9%

50.6%

51.9%

33.5%

32.7%

71.4%

71.9%

31.3%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

15.9%

14.5%

15.1%

35.4%

34.6%

26.3%

30.0%

8.9%

9.5%

7.7%

11.9%

Style

40.9%

34.9%

41.2%

46.6%

9.6%

15.0%

44.3%

57.2%

33.4%

32.1%

Roster

2.42

2.54

6'5.5"

6'6.1"

85.6%

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Carolina

Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 86.9%

Lost

Cord Stansberry 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Titian DeRosa no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.