CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFord Center, Evansville, IN
Le Moyne
Efficiency #270
2025-26: 15-17 · 10-9 conf
@
Evansville
Efficiency #327
2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
73.2
win 47%
Projected
74.2
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: EVAN −1.0 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Evansville 68.1, Le Moyne 69.6 → 69.4 possessions
+2.3
Evansville offense vs Le Moyne defense
−3.0
Le Moyne offense vs Evansville defense
0.0
Projected total
147.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Evansville offense vs Le Moyne defense
−3.0
Le Moyne offense vs Evansville defense
0.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Evansville by 1.0
1.0
Le Moyne side ◂▸ Evansville side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.5 against a projected 147.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Evansville.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Le Moyne is the faster team (69.2, #133 of 365) and Evansville the slower (67.4, #228). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.4
model
Projected team totals
73.2 / 74.2
Le Moyne / Evansville
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#76
Le Moyne
68.1#206
Evansville
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageEvansville
Where Evansville struggles: the offensive glass
Evansville rebounds 22.0% of its own misses (#355); Le Moyne lets opponents grab 29.1% of their own misses (#107). Expect about 23.9%, 6.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLe Moyne
Where Le Moyne scores: shooting
Le Moyne shoots an effective 52.7% (#118); Evansville allows 55.1% (#332). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLe Moyne
Le Moyne gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Le Moyne's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Evansville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Le Moyne at about 42.9% of its shots from three, Evansville about 42.5%.
Le Moyne has the ball
OffenseEvansville allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #118
55.1% #332
+3.9 pt/100
19.1% #327
15.4% #259
-0.6 pt/100
25.2% #337
30.2% #170
-2.3 pt/100
39.5% #68
31.4% #93
-0.0 pt/100
71.8% #214
—
-0.1 pt/100
Le Moyne net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100
Evansville has the ball
OffenseLe Moyne allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #280
49.3% #75
-3.1 pt/100
19.1% #323
15.0% #289
-0.2 pt/100
22.0% #355
29.1% #107
-4.0 pt/100
29.8% #315
32.7% #121
-0.5 pt/100
73.6% #149
—
+0.1 pt/100
Evansville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersLe Moyneoffense vsEvansvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
Le Moyne shoots
42.6
4.8
12.5
40.1
Evansville allows
33.7
8.5
15.0
42.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#149 | 61.4%#282 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.0%#269 | 39.6%#178 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.8%#194 | 42.2%#311 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#152 | 37.6%#351 | 33.7% |
Evansvilleoffense vsLe Moynedefense
Share of shots by zone
Evansville shoots
29.0
9.9
17.9
43.1
Le Moyne allows
36.2
7.4
16.5
39.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#170 | 56.5%#100 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.5%#208 | 37.7%#131 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.8%#191 | 27.3%#1 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#268 | 36.0%#303 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersLe Moyne
−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#276 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#337
Def reb %
70.9%
#107
Turnover %
19.1%
#327
Forced TO %
15.0%
#289
FT rate
39.5%
#68
FT allowed
32.7%
#121
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Evansville
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#349 of 365
Off reb %
22.0%
#355
Def reb %
69.8%
#170
Turnover %
19.1%
#323
Forced TO %
15.4%
#259
FT rate
29.8%
#315
FT allowed
31.4%
#93
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.7
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Le Moyne has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.2 (#276 of 365) to Evansville’s −5.4 (#349).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Le Moyne2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trent Mosquera | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-30 | 31.8 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 51.1% | 35.2% | 6.8 | 73.6% | 26.4% | |
| 13 | Deng Garang | G | So | 6'6" | 32-32 | 30.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 53.2% | 33.9% | 4.0 | 71.4% | 21.4% | |
| 2 | Jakai Sanders | G | So | 6'3" | 29-21 | 29.9 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 46.0% | 36.5% | 2.6 | 74.5% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Shilo Jackson | F | Sr | 6'9" | 27-26 | 30.8 | 15.8 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 63.3% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 72.7% | 27.0% | |
| 1 | Tennessee Rainwater | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-7 | 24.5 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 63.9% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 67.2% | 21.7% | |
| 10 | Jakob Blakley | G | So | 6'0" | 32-28 | 16.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 45.9% | 31.4% | 2.7 | 87.5% | 16.5% | |
| 12 | Samuel Hincapie | G | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 15.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 48.9% | 26.9% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 20.6% | |
| 3 | Eli Greenberg | G | Fr | 6'4" | 31-8 | 14.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 42.0% | 28.9% | 1.5 | 78.3% | 15.7% | |
| 32 | Isaac Nyakundi | F | So | 6'9" | 24-6 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 51.1% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 54.5% | 14.9% | |
| 5 | Trevor Roe | F | So | 6'9" | 17-0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.3% | 32.3% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 23.0% | |
| 11 | Josiah Lee | G | Fr | 6'2" | 15-0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 58.3% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 14.5% | |
| 0 | Ametri Moss | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 100.0% | 18.5% | |
| 33 | Sam Donnelly | G | Sr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 22.6% | |
| 22 | Kaelin Thomas | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Evansville2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leif Moeller | G | Fr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 48.8% | 36.6% | 4.1 | 77.1% | 23.8% | |
| 23 | AJ Casey | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-20 | 29.7 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.5% | 33.9% | 1.9 | 73.8% | 27.2% | |
| 11 | Joshua Hughes | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 27.6 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 58.2% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 19.0% | |
| 0 | Bryce Quinet | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-19 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 45.8% | 30.3% | 2.4 | 71.4% | 23.2% | |
| 12 | Alex Hemenway | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 25.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 45.4% | 31.7% | 5.1 | 81.8% | 17.3% | |
| 45 | Trent Hundley | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-1 | 17.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 54.6% | 37.1% | 3.3 | 89.3% | 16.9% | |
| 1 | Keishon Porter | G | Sr | 6'5" | 16-10 | 22.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 38.4% | 15.2% | 2.1 | 65.9% | 24.9% | |
| 9 | Kaia Berridge | G | So | 6'4" | 27-0 | 12.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 41.4% | 26.7% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 14.5% | |
| 22 | Connor Turnbull | F | Sr | 6'10" | 16-14 | 20.1 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 48.4% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 66.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | James Dyson-Merwe | F | Fr | 6'11" | 21-0 | 13.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 64.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.1% | |
| 40 | Weston Aigner | G | Jr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 23.4% | |
| 5 | Marlon Barnes Jr. | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 2.0 | — | 42.3% | |
| 13 | Leo Amari IV | G | Jr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.4 | — | 23.4% | |
| 33 | Aaron Gutman | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Dakota Candler | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Le Moyne2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trent Mosquera | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-30 | 31.8 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 51.1% | 35.2% | 6.8 | 73.6% | 26.4% | |
| 13 | Deng Garang | G | So | 6'6" | 32-32 | 30.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 53.2% | 33.9% | 4.0 | 71.4% | 21.4% | |
| 2 | Jakai Sanders | G | So | 6'3" | 29-21 | 29.9 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 46.0% | 36.5% | 2.6 | 74.5% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Shilo Jackson | F | Sr | 6'9" | 27-26 | 30.8 | 15.8 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 63.3% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 72.7% | 27.0% | |
| 1 | Tennessee Rainwater | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-7 | 24.5 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 63.9% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 67.2% | 21.7% | |
| 10 | Jakob Blakley | G | So | 6'0" | 32-28 | 16.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 45.9% | 31.4% | 2.7 | 87.5% | 16.5% | |
| 12 | Samuel Hincapie | G | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 15.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 48.9% | 26.9% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 20.6% | |
| 3 | Eli Greenberg | G | Fr | 6'4" | 31-8 | 14.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 42.0% | 28.9% | 1.5 | 78.3% | 15.7% | |
| 32 | Isaac Nyakundi | F | So | 6'9" | 24-6 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 51.1% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 54.5% | 14.9% | |
| 5 | Trevor Roe | F | So | 6'9" | 17-0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.3% | 32.3% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 23.0% | |
| 11 | Josiah Lee | G | Fr | 6'2" | 15-0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 58.3% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 14.5% | |
| 0 | Ametri Moss | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 100.0% | 18.5% | |
| 33 | Sam Donnelly | G | Sr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 22.6% | |
| 22 | Kaelin Thomas | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Le Moyne
Against the spread
Season
16-14-1
Home
5-7
Road
10-6-1
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −3.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
13-18
Home
5-7
Road
6-11
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Stonehill | H | L 71–81 | −4.5 | L−14.5 | 140.0 | O152 | 100.6 | 114.8 | 70.5 |
| Feb 28 | New Haven | A | L 59–66 | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 136.0 | U125 | 86.5 | 96.8 | 68.2 |
| Feb 26 | FDU | H | W 76–59 | −4.5 | W+12.5 | 139.5 | U135 | 118.7 | 92.2 | 64.0 |
| Feb 21 | Stonehill | A | L 68–77 | −2.0 | L−11.0 | 137.0 | O145 | 96.6 | 109.4 | 70.4 |
| Feb 19 | C Connecticut | A | L 77–78 | +3.5 | W+2.5 | 146.5 | O155 | 108.8 | 110.2 | 70.8 |
| Feb 14 | Chicago St | H | W 81–63 | −7.0 | W+11.0 | 146.0 | U144 | 117.6 | 91.5 | 68.9 |
| Feb 12 | Mercyhurst | H | W 58–57 | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 138.5 | U115 | 84.2 | 82.7 | 68.9 |
| Feb 7 | Saint Francis Red Wolves | H | W 86–84 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 154.0 | O170 | 112.0 | 109.4 | 76.8 |
| Feb 5 | Wagner | A | L 78–79 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 140.0 | O157 | 113.9 | 115.3 | 68.5 |
| Jan 31 | Stonehill | H | L 54–65 | −4.5 | L−15.5 | 140.5 | U119 | 75.7 | 91.1 | 71.4 |
Evansville
Against the spread
Season
15-15
Home
6-7
Road
7-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −5.2
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-13-1
Home
8-5
Road
7-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +7.0
Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Northern Iowa | N | L 59–68 | +15.0 | W+6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 94.0 | 108.3 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | S Illinois | H | L 67–81 | +9.0 | L−5.0 | 139.5 | O148 | 104.9 | 126.8 | 63.9 |
| Feb 28 | Valparaiso | H | W 80–79 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 117.9 | 116.4 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | Belmont | A | L 64–98 | +18.5 | L−15.5 | 152.0 | O162 | 94.8 | 145.2 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Murray St | A | L 75–88 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 153.0 | O163 | 104.0 | 122.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 18 | UIC | H | L 46–84 | +8.0 | L−30.0 | 140.0 | U130 | 71.2 | 130.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 12 | S Illinois | A | L 60–86 | +12.0 | L−14.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 88.2 | 126.4 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Illinois St | H | W 88–80 | +10.5 | W+18.5 | 138.0 | O168 | 132.7 | 120.6 | 66.3 |
| Feb 6 | Valparaiso | A | L 63–70 OT | +8.5 | W+1.5 | 136.5 | U133 | 91.1 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 3 | Indiana St | H | L 63–84 | +1.0 | L−20.0 | 145.0 | O147 | 100.5 | 134.0 | 62.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLe MoyneEvansville
Efficiency
104.7
102.4
110.2
112.2
69.6
68.1
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
49.3%
53.5%
49.9%
34.3%
32.2%
71.8%
73.6%
39.5%
29.8%
Ball control & glass
19.1%
19.1%
15.0%
15.4%
25.2%
22.0%
29.1%
30.2%
11.1%
11.1%
9.5%
7.1%
Style
40.8%
43.1%
42.6%
40.3%
14.2%
7.5%
56.5%
54.3%
31.9%
30.0%
Roster
2.56
2.74
6'5.2"
6'6.7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLe Moyne
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Evansville
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.