CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
Ball State
Efficiency #295
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-11 conf
@
Florida St
Efficiency #74
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
65.9
win 13%
Projected
79.1
win 87%
No line posted yet.
Model: FSU −13.2 · total 145.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Florida St 70.5, Ball State 65.9 → 68.1 possessions
−0.4
Florida St offense vs Ball State defense
+3.3
Ball State offense vs Florida St defense
−6.0
Projected total
145.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Florida St offense vs Ball State defense
+3.3
Ball State offense vs Florida St defense
+6.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Florida St by 13.2
13.2
Ball State side ◂▸ Florida St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Florida St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida St is the faster team (71.8, #27 of 365) and Ball State the slower (65.3, #321). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.1
model
Projected team totals
65.9 / 79.1
Ball State / Florida St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.9#344
Ball State
70.5#26
Florida St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
Florida St averages 71.8 possessions per 40, Ball State 65.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageBall State
Where Ball State struggles: shooting
Ball State shoots an effective 47.0% (#336); Florida St allows 52.2% (#226). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageFlorida St
Where Florida St scores: shooting
Florida St shoots an effective 52.3% (#132); Ball State allows 52.7% (#253). Expect about 52.6%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
Ball State has the ball
OffenseFlorida St allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #336
52.2% #226
-2.8 pt/100
16.2% #152
19.0% #52
-1.3 pt/100
27.1% #290
34.1% #319
-0.3 pt/100
31.6% #263
32.7% #122
-0.4 pt/100
71.0% #240
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ball State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100
Florida St has the ball
OffenseBall State allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #132
52.7% #253
+1.9 pt/100
15.2% #83
18.7% #63
-0.4 pt/100
30.8% #170
31.0% #204
+0.3 pt/100
34.7% #191
32.1% #106
-0.2 pt/100
71.3% #231
—
-0.1 pt/100
Florida St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBall Stateoffense vsFlorida Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ball State shoots
42.3
5.0
14.3
38.4
Florida St allows
32.9
5.7
15.5
45.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.7%#344 | 60.2%#236 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.2%#218 | 38.8%#154 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.6%#350 | 38.8%#194 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.4%#312 | 34.6%#228 | 33.7% |
Florida Stoffense vsBall Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida St shoots
35.5
6.0
8.4
50.1
Ball State allows
36.4
7.1
15.8
40.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.5%#109 | 61.4%#280 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#20 | 42.3%#235 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.7%#241 | 37.9%#158 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#226 | 34.8%#239 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBall State
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#162 of 365
Off reb %
27.1%
#290
Def reb %
69.0%
#204
Turnover %
16.2%
#152
Forced TO %
18.7%
#63
FT rate
31.6%
#263
FT allowed
32.1%
#106
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Florida St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#89 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#170
Def reb %
65.9%
#319
Turnover %
15.2%
#83
Forced TO %
19.0%
#52
FT rate
34.7%
#191
FT allowed
32.7%
#122
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Florida St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#89 of 365) to Ball State’s +0.5 (#162).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Ball State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mason Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 48.0% | 36.9% | 2.1 | 40.9% | 10.1% | |
| 0 | Sean Blakeat Vermont | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-27 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 35.2% | 1.6 | 69.3% | 25.0% | |
| 55 | Zaon Collinsat Fresno St | G | Sr | 6'1" | 26-24 | 30.7 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 49.8% | 30.9% | 2.1 | 71.3% | 25.6% | |
| 2 | Javion Guy-Kingat C Arkansas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-20 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52.0% | 34.1% | 4.2 | 69.7% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | K'Jei Parkerat UMass | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-6 | 20.8 | 10.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 56.7% | 40.8% | 4.8 | 90.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Babatunde Durodolaat Temple | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 75.8% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Trey Lewisat W Michigan | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-11 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55.2% | 38.5% | 4.4 | 74.3% | 24.5% | |
| 7 | Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph's | C | Jr | 6'11" | 36-1 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 47.1% | 18.2% | 0.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 20 | Joey Hart | G | Sr | 6'5" | 4-3 | 19.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 63.6% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.5% | |
| 4 | Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas Tech | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | Aaron Fineat Purdue | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 25 | Kai Mcgrew | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kamden McGilveary | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Kijani Wright | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Zaon Collins (from Fresno St), Babatunde Durodola (from Temple), Aaron Fine (from Purdue), Javion Guy-King (from C Arkansas), Jazz Henderson Jr. (from Texas Tech), Trey Lewis (from W Michigan), K'Jei Parker (from UMass), Jaden Smith (from Saint Joseph's), Sean Blake (from Vermont)
Florida St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kam Taylorat UNC Asheville | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-30 | 34.7 | 18.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 49.6% | 28.1% | 4.3 | 70.1% | 34.2% | |
| 2 | Anthony Robinson IIat Missouri | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-19 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 48.3% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 67.0% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Sebastian Rancikat Colorado | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-26 | 28.0 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 33.1% | 4.1 | 86.0% | 25.8% | |
| 31 | Cooper Schwiegerat Wake Forest | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-11 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 1.0 | 73.7% | 14.8% | |
| 19 | AJ Swinton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.6% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 56.5% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Shon Abaevat Cincinnati | F | So | 6'8" | 24-12 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 41.9% | 25.7% | 4.2 | 64.9% | 30.6% | |
| 15 | Jalen Crawford | G | Jr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 53.4% | |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 00 | Amare Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Brandon Bass Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Collin Paul | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Elise Assui | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | JD Jones | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Marcis Ponder | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Martay Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Shon Abaev (from Cincinnati), Sebastian Rancik (from Colorado), Anthony Robinson II (from Missouri), Cooper Schwieger (from Wake Forest), Kam Taylor (from UNC Asheville)
Ball State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mason Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 48.0% | 36.9% | 2.1 | 40.9% | 10.1% | |
| 0 | Sean Blakeat Vermont | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-27 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 35.2% | 1.6 | 69.3% | 25.0% | |
| 55 | Zaon Collinsat Fresno St | G | Sr | 6'1" | 26-24 | 30.7 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 49.8% | 30.9% | 2.1 | 71.3% | 25.6% | |
| 2 | Javion Guy-Kingat C Arkansas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-20 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52.0% | 34.1% | 4.2 | 69.7% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | K'Jei Parkerat UMass | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-6 | 20.8 | 10.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 56.7% | 40.8% | 4.8 | 90.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Babatunde Durodolaat Temple | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 75.8% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Trey Lewisat W Michigan | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-11 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55.2% | 38.5% | 4.4 | 74.3% | 24.5% | |
| 7 | Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph's | C | Jr | 6'11" | 36-1 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 47.1% | 18.2% | 0.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 20 | Joey Hart | G | Sr | 6'5" | 4-3 | 19.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 63.6% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.5% | |
| 4 | Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas Tech | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | Aaron Fineat Purdue | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 25 | Kai Mcgrew | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kamden McGilveary | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Kijani Wright | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Zaon Collins (from Fresno St), Babatunde Durodola (from Temple), Aaron Fine (from Purdue), Javion Guy-King (from C Arkansas), Jazz Henderson Jr. (from Texas Tech), Trey Lewis (from W Michigan), K'Jei Parker (from UMass), Jaden Smith (from Saint Joseph's), Sean Blake (from Vermont)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Ball State
Against the spread
Season
14-14-1
Home
7-5
Road
6-8-1
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.7
Covered 5 straightCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
9-19-1
Home
3-8-1
Road
4-11
Last 10
3-6-1
avg vs total −4.2
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | C Michigan | H | W 85–69 | −2.0 | W+14.0 | 135.0 | O154 | 125.8 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
| Mar 3 | W Michigan | A | W 74–71 OT | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | O145 | 103.2 | 99.0 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | N Illinois | A | W 79–43 | +1.5 | W+37.5 | 133.5 | U122 | 125.7 | 68.4 | 62.8 |
| Feb 24 | UMass | H | W 74–73 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | O147 | 100.6 | 99.3 | 73.5 |
| Feb 20 | Akron | H | L 65–78 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 147.5 | U143 | 96.7 | 116.1 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Ohio | A | L 57–69 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 144.5 | U126 | 95.3 | 115.4 | 59.8 |
| Feb 14 | Kent State | H | L 68–75 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 143.0 | P143 | 93.7 | 103.3 | 72.6 |
| Feb 11 | Buffalo | H | L 53–63 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 141.0 | U116 | 89.6 | 106.5 | 59.2 |
| Feb 7 | UL Monroe | A | W 73–68 | −4.5 | W+0.5 | 143.5 | U141 | 105.3 | 98.1 | 69.3 |
| Feb 3 | Bowling Green | A | L 52–77 | +11.0 | L−14.0 | 138.0 | U129 | 83.1 | 123.0 | 62.6 |
Florida St
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-7-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +6.7
Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-16
Home
8-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +1.0
Over 4 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #1Duke | N | L 79–80 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 117.5 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Mar 11 | California | N | W 95–89 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | O184 | 136.3 | 127.7 | 69.7 |
| Mar 7 | SMU | H | W 91–78 | −1.0 | W+12.0 | 158.5 | O169 | 123.4 | 105.8 | 73.7 |
| Mar 4 | Pitt | A | W 75–74 | −1.5 | L−0.5 | 145.0 | O149 | 114.3 | 112.8 | 65.6 |
| Feb 28 | Georgia Tech | A | W 80–71 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U151 | 123.7 | 109.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 24 | Miami | H | L 73–83 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 153.5 | O156 | 103.1 | 117.2 | 70.8 |
| Feb 21 | Clemson | A | W 70–65 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 116.9 | 108.6 | 59.9 |
| Feb 17 | Boston College | H | W 80–72 | −12.0 | L−4.0 | 148.0 | O152 | 119.6 | 107.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 14 | Virginia Tech | A | W 92–69 | +4.0 | W+27.0 | 156.5 | O161 | 142.4 | 106.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 10 | #15Virginia | H | L 58–61 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 154.0 | U119 | 85.1 | 89.5 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBall StateFlorida St
Efficiency
101.8
113.0
108.8
106.4
65.9
70.5
—
—
Shooting
47.0%
52.3%
47.0%
55.1%
31.4%
33.1%
71.0%
71.3%
31.6%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
15.2%
18.7%
19.0%
27.1%
30.8%
31.0%
34.1%
8.1%
9.4%
10.9%
12.8%
Style
39.4%
50.6%
45.4%
39.3%
10.8%
12.4%
53.6%
52.5%
34.8%
34.4%
Roster
3.66
3.28
6'4.7"
6'7.4"
16.6%
6.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBall State
Returning minutes: 16.6%Returning production: 13.1%
Lost
- Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Florida St
Returning minutes: 6.3%Returning production: 4.9%
Lost
- Lajae Jones 29.5 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Robert McCray V 28.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chauncey Wiggins 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Martin Somerville 26.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kobe MaGee 19.8 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Thomas Bassong 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
- Kam Taylor from UNC Asheville · 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg last season
- Anthony Robinson II from Missouri · 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Sebastian Rancik from Colorado · 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Cooper Schwieger from Wake Forest · 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
- Shon Abaev from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
- Elise Assui no D1 minutes last season
Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.