UT Arlington Mavericks vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles basketball preview & prediction

Tue, Nov 17 · 8:00 PM ET · Reed Green Coliseum, Hattiesburg, MS

Non-conferenceESPN+Reed Green Coliseum, Hattiesburg, MS

UT Arlington

3-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #164

Southern Miss

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #219

Tue, Nov 17 · 8:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UT Arlington is the faster team (76.7, #44 of 365) and Southern Miss the slower (70.3, #197). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

73.3

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.5#67

UT Arlington

71.4#126

Southern Miss

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Southern Miss has the ball−10.1

UT Arlington has the ball+3.5

Southern Miss has the ball

✗Coughs it upTO% 25.6% #339 · UTA forces 20.2% #101 · ~17 turnovers−4.9

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #276 · UTA allows 50.8% #184−3.4

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · UTA allows 30.0% #156−0.9

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.3% #113 · UTA allows 40.5% #218 · FT 50.0% #350−0.9

UT Arlington has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.6% #158 · USM allows 56.9% #295+4.3

✗Coughs it upTO% 19.6% #231 · USM forces 21.3% #78 · ~15 turnovers−2.5

✓Gets to the lineFTR 33.3% #220 · USM allows 70.6% #355 · FT 58.5% #327+0.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 27.0% #261 · USM allows 41.4% #324+0.7

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

UT Arlingtonoffense vsSouthern Missdefense

Share of shots by zone

UT Arlington shoots

43.2

9.3

5.1

42.4

Southern Miss allows

58.8

17.6

5.9

17.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.9%#225	75.0%#340	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.4%#173	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	16.7%#298	50.0%#285	34.7%
Three	35.8%#117	33.3%#185	32.5%

Southern Missoffense vsUT Arlingtondefense

Share of shots by zone

Southern Miss shoots

21.6

10.8

45.9

UT Arlington allows

38.3

9.2

15.8

36.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	25.0%#357	50.0%#75	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	75.0%#17	54.5%#289	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	0.0%#327	52.6%#310	34.7%
Three	40.0%#56	34.1%#210	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

UT Arlington

−2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#210 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#261

Def reb %

70.0%

#156

Turnover %

19.6%

#231

Forced TO %

20.2%

#101

FT rate

33.3%

#220

FT allowed

40.5%

#218

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+1.5

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Southern Miss

−14.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

58.6%

#324

Turnover %

25.6%

#339

Forced TO %

21.3%

#78

FT rate

42.3%

#113

FT allowed

70.6%

#355

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−3.3

Ball security−5.2

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−8.5

UT Arlington has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.1 (#210 of 365) to Southern Miss’s −14.0 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

UT Arlington2026-27 numbers · last game: Hawai'i, Nov 8

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	G	Sr	6'2"	4-4	32.3	35	—	Started last	12.3	6.5	4.5	1.3	47.7%	12.5%	2.0	80.0%	21.0%
2	G	Sr	6'3"	4-4	30.3	32	—	Started last	12.0	2.5	2.0	0.5	50.0%	32.3%	7.8	83.3%	19.5%
4	G	So	6'2"	3-3	31.3	36	—	Started last	10.0	4.0	4.0	1.3	46.8%	33.3%	7.0	20.0%	20.9%
15	F	Jr	7'1"	4-0	21.0	18	—	Bench	14.8	8.5	1.0	2.5	52.1%	41.7%	3.0	90.9%	37.9%
8	F	Sr	6'8"	4-0	19.8	10	—	Bench	6.0	5.5	1.3	1.8	70.0%	—	0.0	62.5%	15.8%
11	F	So	6'10"	4-4	19.5	21	—	Started last	12.8	7.3	0.3	3.5	54.9%	14.3%	1.8	37.5%	41.3%
5	F	Jr	7'0"	4-4	18.8	19	—	Started last	8.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	54.8%	100.0%	0.3	60.0%	21.8%
7	G	Jr	6'5"	4-1	16.5	13	—	Bench	7.5	4.5	2.5	0.3	53.7%	30.0%	2.5	100.0%	22.1%
0	F	Fr	6'7"	3-0	18.7	16	—	Bench	9.0	2.0	0.7	0.7	71.1%	58.3%	4.0	—	18.9%
10	G	Fr	6'0"	2-0	8.0	—	—	Active	3.0	0.5	1.5	0.5	42.9%	33.3%	3.0	—	24.7%
16	G	Fr	6'0"	1-0	1.0	—	—	Out L3	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	G	Fr	6'3"	1-0	1.0	1	—	Bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

UT Arlington

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +2.5

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +5.5

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Bethesda Flames	N	W 116–65	—	—	—	—	136.4	76.4	85.0
Nov 8	Hawai'iAdjEM #142	A	L 62–71	+8.0	L−1.0	146.0	U133	84.9	97.2	73.0
Nov 6	PortlandAdjEM #192	N	W 89–85	+2.0	W+6.0	150.0	O174	110.8	105.8	80.3
Nov 2	UNT Dallas Trailblazers	H	W 89–56	—	—	—	—	117.1	73.7	76.0
Mar 13	Utah ValleyAdjEM #94	N	L 65–67	+8.0	W+6.0	136.0	U132	104.2	107.4	62.4
Mar 12	Southern UtahAdjEM #278	N	W 69–63	−5.0	W+1.0	141.5	U132	96.7	88.3	71.3
Mar 7	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #301	A	W 64–57	+1.0	W+8.0	133.0	U121	97.8	87.1	65.4
Mar 5	Tarleton StAdjEM #224	A	W 65–60	+1.0	W+6.0	136.0	U125	107.4	99.2	60.5
Feb 26	CA BaptistAdjEM #239	A	L 56–68	+6.5	L−5.5	134.5	U124	89.0	108.1	62.9
Feb 21	Utah ValleyAdjEM #94	H	L 54–66	+5.5	L−6.5	137.5	U120	81.0	99.0	66.6

Southern Miss

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +6.0

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −6.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	#18Iowa StateAdjEM #21	A	L 57–83	+32.0	W+6.0	146.0	U140	81.1	118.1	70.3
Nov 2	Tougaloo Bulldogs	H	W 82–35	—	—	—	—	106.4	45.4	77.1
Mar 8	TroyAdjEM #210	N	L 70–78	+5.5	L−2.5	143.0	O148	98.2	109.4	71.3
Mar 7	App StateAdjEM #155	N	W 86–73	+5.0	W+18.0	137.5	O159	125.4	106.5	68.6
Mar 6	Texas StAdjEM #190	N	W 81–77	+1.5	W+5.5	140.0	O158	117.3	111.5	69.0
Mar 5	James MadisonAdjEM #187	N	W 86–80	+2.0	W+8.0	143.5	O166	119.4	111.1	72.0
Feb 27	South AlabamaAdjEM #216	A	W 68–55	+4.0	W+17.0	142.0	U123	105.1	85.0	64.7
Feb 24	Arkansas StAdjEM #130	A	L 84–89	+9.0	W+4.0	158.0	O173	106.4	112.8	78.9
Feb 21	Old DominionAdjEM #147	H	W 86–81	−5.0	P0.0	148.0	O167	106.1	100.0	81.0
Feb 14	TroyAdjEM #210	H	W 69–65	+5.0	W+9.0	144.5	U134	104.4	98.3	66.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UT ArlingtonSouthern Miss

Efficiency

101.2

102.2

101.3

105.7

72.5

71.4

-0.2

18.9

Shooting

51.6%

44.2%

50.0%

34.4%

35.8%

40.0%

58.5%

50.0%

33.3%

42.3%

Ball control & glass

19.6%

25.6%

20.2%

21.3%

27.0%

29.7%

30.0%

41.4%

6.5%

14.2%

8.6%

28.1%

Style

43.1%

38.5%

46.4%

35.1%

12.6%

1.8%

40.7%

68.4%

35.6%

48.5%

Roster

3.01

3.39

6'6.2"

6'5.8"

6.1%

15.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UT Arlington

Returning minutes: 6.1%Returning production: 4.0%

Lost

Raysean Seamster 29.7 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Marcell McCreary 29.3 mpg, 12.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cash Chavis 27.1 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to North Texas
Bahsil Laster 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg · transferred to Norfolk St
Marcus Rigsby Jr. 17.2 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyran Mason 16.9 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to ETSU

Added

Tycen McDaniels from Alcorn St · 27.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg last season
Mier Panoam from Xavier · 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Niko Bundalo from Ole Miss · 1.0 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Noah Shelby from Texas A&M · 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Bryson McGlothin from Richmond · 0.4 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
Teodor Simic no D1 minutes last season

Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Southern Miss

Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 15.6%

Lost

Tylik Weeks 32.6 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Memphis
Dylan Brumfield 31.2 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Djahi Binet 26.4 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Curt Lewis 23.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Israel Hart 21.0 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chiante' Tramble 12.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to N Colorado

Added

Cameron Wallace from Little Rock · 28.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt from Hampton · 23.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
Marcus Overstreet from San José St · 8.2 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
DeAndre Harvey no D1 minutes last season
Max Blank no D1 minutes last season
Dorion Bowen no D1 minutes last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Tue, Nov 17

Hofstra vs Murray St · 12:00 PM ET
Rutgers vs Houston · 2:00 PM ET
Notre Dame vs Florida · 4:30 PM ET
Marist at Army · 6:00 PM ET
Liberty vs S Illinois · 6:00 PM ET
Saint Peter's at UMass Lowell · 6:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at Purdue · 6:30 PM ET
W Carolina at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
Sacred Heart at Providence · 7:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
Illinois at Duke · 7:00 PM ET
Ball State at Florida St · 7:00 PM ET
Villanova at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
Bowling Green at William & Mary · 7:00 PM ET
C Michigan at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
Fordham at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
Tennessee St at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
Wagner at Saint Joseph's · 7:00 PM ET
CSU Northridge at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
Norfolk St at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
ETSU at Marshall · 7:00 PM ET
Lehigh at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
Rider at Miami · 7:00 PM ET
Mississippi St at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
Green Bay at West Florida · 7:00 PM ET
Akron at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
Charlotte at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
Kennesaw St at Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
Bryant at UMass · 7:30 PM ET
Arkansas vs Indiana · 7:30 PM ET
FIU at UAB · 7:30 PM ET
Jax State at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
MD Eastern at DePaul · 8:00 PM ET
Oral Roberts at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
Le Moyne at Evansville · 8:00 PM ET
MTSU at GA Southern · 8:00 PM ET
Texas A&M-CC at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
Bellarmine at Illinois St · 8:00 PM ET
E Illinois at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
Lamar at Omaha · 8:00 PM ET
Lindenwood at Northern Iowa · 8:00 PM ET
E Washington at Utah · 8:30 PM ET
Sam Houston at Wyoming · 8:30 PM ET
Nicholls at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
Michigan St at Tennessee · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at UC Davis · 9:00 PM ET
Old Dominion at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
UNLV vs Kansas · 9:30 PM ET
Seattle U at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
UC Irvine at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
Montana St at Gonzaga · 11:00 PM ET
West Virginia vs Auburn · 11:59 PM ET
Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · TBD

← Mon, Nov 16 · Wed, Nov 18 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.