CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA
Seattle U
Efficiency #125
2025-26: 21-14 · 9-11 conf
@
CA Baptist
Efficiency #102
2025-26: 25-9 · 15-5 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · 10:00 PM ET
65.0
win 34%
Projected
69.7
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: CBU −4.8 · total 134.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: CA Baptist 67.4, Seattle U 68.7 → 67.8 possessions
−1.1
CA Baptist offense vs Seattle U defense
−5.8
Seattle U offense vs CA Baptist defense
−6.6
Projected total
134.7
Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
CA Baptist offense vs Seattle U defense
−5.8
Seattle U offense vs CA Baptist defense
+6.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
CA Baptist by 4.8
4.8
Seattle U side ◂▸ CA Baptist side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.7 against +4.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help CA Baptist.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Seattle U is the faster team (68.8, #160 of 365) and CA Baptist the slower (67.5, #223). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.7
model
Projected team totals
65.0 / 69.7
Seattle U / CA Baptist
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#150
Seattle U
67.4#256
CA Baptist

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSeattle U
Where Seattle U struggles: shooting
Seattle U shoots an effective 49.8% (#249); CA Baptist allows 46.3% (#16). Expect about 47.9%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageCA Baptist
Where CA Baptist struggles: shooting
CA Baptist shoots an effective 48.3% (#308); Seattle U allows 48.4% (#46). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversCA Baptist
CA Baptist turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 20.2% is worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions against CA Baptist's offense.
GlassSeattle U
Seattle U gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.1% is worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions against Seattle U's offense.
GlassCA Baptist
CA Baptist owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for CA Baptist's offense.
DefenseSeattle U
Seattle U's shot-blocking
Seattle U ranks #14 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of CA Baptist's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Seattle U has the ball
OffenseCA Baptist allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #249
46.3% #16
-4.8 pt/100
16.8% #183
17.0% #154
-0.2 pt/100
23.7% #347
27.2% #41
-3.8 pt/100
34.2% #201
36.6% #229
+0.1 pt/100
70.6% #252
—
-0.2 pt/100
Seattle U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.9 pts/100
CA Baptist has the ball
OffenseSeattle U allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #308
48.4% #46
-4.5 pt/100
17.9% #267
21.1% #9
-4.2 pt/100
37.5% #13
31.8% #249
+3.4 pt/100
35.9% #154
33.0% #131
-0.1 pt/100
71.3% #230
—
-0.1 pt/100
CA Baptist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Seattle Uoffense vsCA Baptistdefense
Share of shots by zone
Seattle U shoots
CA Baptist allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26251.3%#958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.8%#15139.7%#18639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.0%#26338.4%#17438.0%
Three33.7%#18629.5%#533.7%
CA Baptistoffense vsSeattle Udefense
Share of shots by zone
CA Baptist shoots
Seattle U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.0%#35453.2%#2658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.5%#33639.6%#18039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3640.7%#26738.0%
Three33.4%#20032.1%#6933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Seattle U
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#145 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#347
Def reb %
68.2%
#249
Turnover %
16.8%
#183
Forced TO %
21.1%
#9
FT rate
34.2%
#201
FT allowed
33.0%
#131
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6
CA Baptist
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#69 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#13
Def reb %
72.8%
#41
Turnover %
17.9%
#267
Forced TO %
17.0%
#154
FT rate
35.9%
#154
FT allowed
36.6%
#229
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.4

CA Baptist has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#69 of 365) to Seattle U’s +0.9 (#145).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Seattle U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Junseok YeoFSr6'8"34-3430.812.04.01.62.051.2%29.5%5.269.6%24.5%
15Will HeimbrodtFSo6'7"34-3330.812.35.22.22.444.9%29.7%1.959.3%28.7%
1Maleek AringtonGSr6'3"35-3529.64.73.13.91.436.3%32.1%1.575.6%12.5%
0Brayden MaldonadoGSr6'0"32-3230.614.73.42.81.651.8%37.8%6.588.7%27.5%
34Austin MaurerCSo7'0"35-2517.97.24.70.50.855.0%25.6%1.172.4%22.6%
11John ChristofilisGSr6'3"35-216.56.51.10.30.353.4%38.7%3.583.3%21.3%
5Jojo MurphyGSr6'2"35-415.55.92.31.40.748.9%34.5%2.579.5%23.7%
6Houran DanCSo6'10"35-1015.05.72.50.31.058.8%—0.064.5%22.3%
2Miles AmosGJr6'2"30-011.01.91.60.60.855.0%46.2%0.450.0%13.2%
33Brock FelderFJr6'8"28-07.33.12.30.10.479.6%0.0%0.050.0%19.0%
10Ray AdamsFFr6'8"5-010.23.22.21.60.438.2%25.0%0.860.0%22.3%
25Yuto KawashimaFFr6'9"4-08.35.02.80.00.352.8%20.0%1.350.0%32.0%
9Stratos PapastavrouFFr6'7"4-07.80.51.80.50.511.1%0.0%0.80.0%20.2%
19Eric ZhengGSo5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Jeremiah HarshmanGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14JT WhiteGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Seattle UCA Baptist
Efficiency
103.7
107.2
101.3
103.5
68.7
67.4
—
—
Shooting
49.8%
48.3%
49.3%
47.4%
33.7%
33.4%
70.6%
71.3%
34.2%
35.9%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
17.9%
21.1%
17.0%
23.7%
37.5%
31.8%
27.2%
9.6%
9.9%
9.4%
9.6%
Style
39.4%
32.0%
43.9%
48.4%
9.9%
10.9%
53.8%
39.9%
30.5%
30.7%
Roster
3.25
3.00
6'5.4"
6'6"
—
82.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Seattle U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

CA Baptist
Returning minutes: 82.6%Returning production: 74.2%
Lost
  • Dominique Daniels Jr. 35.2 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • OJ Blankson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chase Mayo Harmon no D1 minutes last season
  • Mouhamadou Dioum no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.