Charlotte 49ers vs Davidson Wildcats basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ET · John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Non-conferenceESPN+John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Charlotte
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #146
@
Davidson
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #97
Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 64.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Charlotte is the faster team (66.3, #303 of 365) and Davidson the slower (66.3, #304). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
64.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#351
Charlotte
67.5#342
Davidson
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Davidson has the ball+5.9
Charlotte has the ball+0.9
Davidson has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.0% #30 · CLT allows 48.2% #132+4.7
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.3% #67 · CLT forces 15.1% #263 · ~9 turnovers+3.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 18.7% #348 · CLT allows 34.9% #166 · FT 60.9% #302−1.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.3% #162 · CLT allows 26.2% #88−0.8
Charlotte has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.1% #70 · DAV allows 45.0% #81+1.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 39.4% #143 · DAV allows 20.0% #20 · FT 65.6% #251−1.0
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 21.6% #288 · DAV forces 13.6% #299 · ~11 turnovers+0.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 30.4% #202 · DAV allows 32.5% #207−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootCharlotteoffense vsDavidsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Charlotte shoots
40.0
8.4
10.3
41.3
Davidson allows
35.0
10.6
17.9
36.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#157 | 51.2%#91 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#224 | 38.5%#187 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.8%#92 | 31.8%#154 | 34.7% |
| Three | 42.2%#41 | 30.6%#140 | 32.5% |
Davidsonoffense vsCharlottedefense
Share of shots by zone
Davidson shoots
29.3
19.8
15.5
35.3
Charlotte allows
34.5
16.1
13.1
36.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.6%#75 | 55.2%#136 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.8%#121 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 55.6%#36 | 40.9%#229 | 34.7% |
| Three | 44.4%#21 | 34.4%#215 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineCharlotte
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#202
Def reb %
73.8%
#88
Turnover %
21.6%
#288
Forced TO %
15.1%
#263
FT rate
39.4%
#143
FT allowed
34.9%
#166
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−2.4
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Davidson
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#184 of 365
Off reb %
32.3%
#162
Def reb %
67.5%
#207
Turnover %
14.3%
#67
Forced TO %
13.6%
#299
FT rate
18.7%
#348
FT allowed
20.0%
#20
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+2.8
Forcing turnovers−3.2
Foul shots drawn−4.9
Foul shots allowed+4.7
Davidson has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#184 of 365) to Charlotte’s −1.8 (#203).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notCharlotte2026-27 numbers · last game: Seton Hall, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-3 | 33.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 24.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 63.0% | 50.0% | 6.7 | 83.3% | 39.5% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 28.7 | 26 | — | Started last | 8.3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 47.1% | 40.0% | 1.7 | 75.0% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | C | Sr | 6'11" | 3-3 | 19.0 | 26 | — | Started last | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 73.1% | 60.0% | 1.7 | — | 16.9% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 18.7 | 16 | — | Bench | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 59.4% | 41.7% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 19.8% | |
| 21 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 17.0 | 22 | — | Bench | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 70.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 15.8% | |
| 7 | G | So | 6'6" | 3-3 | 16.0 | 15 | — | Started last | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 40.0% | 22.2% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 15.0% | |
| 9 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 15.7 | 13 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 55.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 25.0% | 19.1% | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-0 | 15.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 15.1% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 12.7 | 18 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 31.5% | |
| 12 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 11 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 85.7% | 57.1% | 2.3 | — | 16.6% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 7 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 16.6% | |
| 6 | C | Jr | 7'0" | 2-0 | 5.0 | — | — | Missed last | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 30.4% | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.9% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesCharlotte
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −0.3
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −1.7
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Seton Hall | N | L 62–68 | +4.0 | L−2.0 | 131.0 | U130 | 93.0 | 102.0 | 66.7 |
| Nov 5 | Georgia St | H | W 77–67 | −11.5 | L−1.5 | 143.5 | O144 | 115.0 | 100.1 | 66.9 |
| Nov 2 | Indiana St | A | W 78–70 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 152.5 | U148 | 119.3 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Mar 14 | South Florida | N | L 64–86 | +15.5 | L−6.5 | 153.5 | U150 | 93.1 | 125.1 | 68.7 |
| Mar 13 | UAB | N | W 83–78 | +5.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O161 | 124.7 | 117.2 | 66.6 |
| Mar 12 | Tulane | N | W 74–60 | −1.0 | W+13.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 121.3 | 98.3 | 61.0 |
| Mar 8 | South Florida | A | L 60–83 | +17.5 | L−5.5 | 155.5 | U143 | 91.0 | 125.9 | 65.9 |
| Mar 4 | UAB | H | L 74–80 | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 116.0 | 125.4 | 63.8 |
| Mar 1 | FAU | A | L 76–77 OT | +7.0 | W+6.0 | 148.0 | O153 | 104.9 | 106.2 | 72.5 |
| Feb 25 | North Texas | H | W 80–79 | +1.5 | W+2.5 | 133.5 | O159 | 126.4 | 124.8 | 63.3 |
Davidson
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +9.2
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +2.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Bradley | H | W 62–45 | −9.5 | W+7.5 | 138.5 | U107 | 91.3 | 66.3 | 67.9 |
| Nov 7 | Mercer | H | W 88–76 | −11.5 | W+0.5 | 148.0 | O164 | 133.0 | 114.8 | 66.2 |
| Nov 2 | Washington St | A | W 76–61 | +3.0 | W+18.0 | 149.0 | U137 | 114.4 | 91.8 | 66.5 |
| Mar 17 | Oklahoma St | A | L 80–84 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 109.2 | 114.6 | 73.3 |
| Mar 13 | Saint Joseph's | N | L 58–70 | +2.0 | L−10.0 | 132.5 | U128 | 95.0 | 114.6 | 61.1 |
| Mar 12 | Loyola Chicago | N | W 64–59 OT | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 132.5 | U123 | 96.6 | 89.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 7 | St Bonaventure | A | W 68–63 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 106.0 | 98.2 | 64.2 |
| Mar 4 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 67–70 | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 137.0 | P137 | 102.1 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Mar 1 | La Salle | H | W 71–64 | −11.0 | L−4.0 | 133.5 | O135 | 105.3 | 95.0 | 67.4 |
| Feb 25 | Duquesne | A | W 67–56 | +3.5 | W+14.5 | 143.0 | U123 | 102.2 | 85.4 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCharlotteDavidson
Efficiency
109.6
109.2
108.4
102.8
67.2
67.5
-0.6
-2.9
Shooting
57.1%
61.0%
52.7%
57.7%
42.2%
44.4%
65.6%
60.9%
39.4%
18.7%
Ball control & glass
21.6%
14.3%
15.1%
13.6%
30.4%
32.3%
26.2%
32.5%
10.1%
8.3%
12.1%
5.1%
Style
41.3%
36.6%
41.5%
41.5%
13.4%
5.5%
49.3%
47.7%
43.6%
22.3%
Roster
2.56
2.73
6'6.6"
6'5.7"
9.0%
44.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCharlotte
Returning minutes: 9.0%Returning production: 7.2%
Lost
- Ben Bradford 28.2 mpg, 13.5 ppg · transferred to Charleston
- Dezayne Mingo 26.9 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anton Bonke 25.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg · transferred to Michigan St
- Damoni Harrison 18.3 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Spencer Elliott 17.2 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to UNC Wilmington
- Major Freeman 14.1 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Chaze Harris from South Alabama · 31.8 mpg, 19.2 ppg last season
- Dorian Finister from Louisiana · 30.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
- Dylan Grant from Rutgers · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Michael Walz from Richmond · 21.2 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
- Jayden Fort from Georgetown · 13.6 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- Keyshuan Tillery from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
Returns 9% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Davidson
Returning minutes: 45.0%Returning production: 43.3%
Lost
- Parker Friedrichsen 25.3 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Washington
- Devin Brown 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Roberts Blums 21.0 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to Penn State
- Hunter Adam 15.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Portland
- Sean Logan 12.0 mpg, 2.9 ppg · transferred to Saint Joseph's
- Manie Joses 8.6 mpg, 1.7 ppg · transferred to Hawai'i
Added
- Nick Janowski from St Thomas · 31.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
- Jackson Keith from Butler · 7.0 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Honor Withers Carello no D1 minutes last season
- Eetu Heinonen no D1 minutes last season
- Quadri Bashiru no D1 minutes last season
- John Carter Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 11 | 2025-26 | Davidson 62 – 55 Charlotte |
More games on Tue, Nov 17
- Hofstra vs Murray St · 12:00 PM ET
- Rutgers vs Houston · 2:00 PM ET
- Notre Dame vs Florida · 4:30 PM ET
- Marist at Army · 6:00 PM ET
- Liberty vs S Illinois · 6:00 PM ET
- Saint Peter's at UMass Lowell · 6:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Purdue · 6:30 PM ET
- W Carolina at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Providence · 7:00 PM ET
- Cleveland St at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
- Illinois at Duke · 7:00 PM ET
- Ball State at Florida St · 7:00 PM ET
- Villanova at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- Monmouth at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Bowling Green at William & Mary · 7:00 PM ET
- C Michigan at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- Fordham at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Wagner at Saint Joseph's · 7:00 PM ET
- CSU Northridge at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
- Norfolk St at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- ETSU at Marshall · 7:00 PM ET
- Lehigh at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Miami · 7:00 PM ET
- Mississippi St at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at West Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Akron at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Kennesaw St at Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
- Bryant at UMass · 7:30 PM ET
- Arkansas vs Indiana · 7:30 PM ET
- FIU at UAB · 7:30 PM ET
- Jax State at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- MD Eastern at DePaul · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Evansville · 8:00 PM ET
- MTSU at GA Southern · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Illinois St · 8:00 PM ET
- E Illinois at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
- Lamar at Omaha · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Northern Iowa · 8:00 PM ET
- UT Arlington at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
- E Washington at Utah · 8:30 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Wyoming · 8:30 PM ET
- Nicholls at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
- Michigan St at Tennessee · 9:00 PM ET
- Alabama St at UC Davis · 9:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
- UNLV vs Kansas · 9:30 PM ET
- Seattle U at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
- UC Irvine at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
- Montana St at Gonzaga · 11:00 PM ET
- West Virginia vs Auburn · 11:59 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.