CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +22.7 against +22.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami is the faster team (69.2, #137 of 365) and Rider the slower (65.7, #309). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 49.2%#364 | 59.8%#219 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.5%#130 | 44.3%#277 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#227 | 37.3%#138 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.7%#365 | 35.8%#296 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.2%#34 | 57.0%#111 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.6%#275 | 40.6%#203 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#54 | 44.7%#346 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.9%#127 | 37.9%#356 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMiami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to Rider’s −1.6 (#258).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent Blandat Saint Peter's | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-29 | 33.1 | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 51.6% | 36.9% | 7.4 | 78.3% | 24.7% | |
| 7 | Shelton Henderson | F | So | 6'6" | 35-35 | 31.3 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 58.7% | 25.5% | 1.5 | 57.6% | 25.1% | |
| 0 | DeSean Goodeat Robert Morris | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-32 | 31.0 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 68.9% | 57.1% | 1.9 | 76.3% | 23.8% | |
| 55 | Acaden Lewisat Villanova | G | So | 6'2" | 33-33 | 30.5 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 49.6% | 27.0% | 3.0 | 58.3% | 27.6% | |
| 5 | Malik Reneau | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-35 | 29.0 | 18.9 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 57.0% | 34.7% | 2.1 | 78.8% | 36.2% | |
| 3 | Nick Dornat Indiana | G | Sr | 6'7" | 30-12 | 23.2 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 57.3% | 38.0% | 5.3 | 87.0% | 19.5% | |
| 2 | Somto Cyrilat Georgia | C | Jr | 6'11" | 33-32 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 75.9% | — | 0.0 | 57.8% | 19.5% | |
| 35 | Dante Allen | G | So | 6'4" | 30-18 | 23.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 50.6% | 32.1% | 2.6 | 58.3% | 18.0% | |
| 6 | Robert Miller IIIat LSU | F | Jr | 6'10" | 31-2 | 19.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 65.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 69.9% | 17.1% | |
| 12 | Quin Bergerat Bucknell | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-8 | 16.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 44.2% | 30.6% | 2.4 | 71.4% | 15.5% | |
| 13 | L.J. Casonat Michigan | G | Jr | 6'2" | 28-0 | 18.6 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 60.6% | 40.2% | 2.9 | 70.9% | 24.8% | |
| 4 | Marcus Allen | F | Jr | 6'7" | 8-0 | 18.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 38.5% | 1.6 | 69.2% | 14.9% | |
| 11 | Caleb Gaskins | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Christopher Birden Jr. | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Egor Ryzhov | C | Sr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Siena | A | L 61–76 | +14.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 91.6 | 114.2 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Iona | A | L 58–80 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | U138 | 80.9 | 111.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 22 | Niagara | H | W 67–62 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 103.3 | 95.5 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Canisius | H | L 66–72 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 97.8 | 106.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Sacred Heart | A | L 75–86 | +9.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 108.6 | 124.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 13 | Mount St Marys | H | L 55–65 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 84.7 | 100.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Merrimack | H | L 47–73 | +8.5 | L−17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.8 | 127.1 | 57.5 |
| Feb 5 | Marist | A | L 52–81 | +14.0 | L−15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.1 | 137.2 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Saint Peter's | H | W 81–78 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 124.1 | 119.5 | 65.3 |
| Jan 30 | Manhattan | A | L 90–95 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 133.6 | 141.1 | 67.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #2Purdue | N | L 69–79 | +8.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 105.2 | 120.4 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #10Missouri | N | W 80–66 | −1.0 | W+13.0 | 145.5 | O146 | 119.1 | 98.3 | 67.2 |
| Mar 13 | #10Virginia | N | L 62–84 | +3.5 | L−18.5 | 145.0 | O146 | 99.3 | 134.6 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | #24Louisville | N | W 78–73 | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 114.0 | 106.7 | 68.4 |
| Mar 7 | Louisville | H | L 89–92 | −1.5 | L−4.5 | 155.5 | O181 | 138.1 | 142.7 | 64.5 |
| Mar 4 | SMU | A | W 77–69 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 156.5 | U146 | 111.0 | 99.4 | 69.4 |
| Feb 28 | Boston College | H | W 76–54 | −16.0 | W+6.0 | 144.5 | U130 | 117.6 | 83.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 24 | Florida St | A | W 83–73 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 153.5 | O156 | 117.2 | 103.1 | 70.8 |
| Feb 21 | #14Virginia | A | L 83–86 | +7.5 | W+4.5 | 146.5 | O169 | 128.1 | 132.7 | 64.8 |
| Feb 17 | Virginia Tech | H | W 67–66 | −8.5 | L−7.5 | 148.0 | U133 | 106.7 | 105.1 | 62.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
- DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
- Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
- Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
- Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
- Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.