CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWatsco Center, Coral Gables, FL
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
@
Miami
Efficiency #30
2025-26: 26-9 · 14-6 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
62.1
win 3%
Projected
84.7
win 97%
No line posted yet.
Model: MIA −22.6 · total 146.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Miami 68.7, Rider 67.2 → 67.6 possessions
−1.6
Miami offense vs Rider defense
+9.5
Rider offense vs Miami defense
−9.3
Projected total
146.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Miami offense vs Rider defense
+9.5
Rider offense vs Miami defense
+9.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Miami by 22.6
22.6
Rider side ◂▸ Miami side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +22.7 against +22.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami is the faster team (69.2, #137 of 365) and Rider the slower (65.7, #309). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.8
model
Projected team totals
62.1 / 84.7
Rider / Miami
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#273
Rider
68.7#145
Miami

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); Miami allows 51.7% (#198). Expect about 46.6%, 4.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMiami
Where Miami scores: shooting
Miami shoots an effective 55.3% (#32); Rider allows 55.2% (#335). Expect about 55.6%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMiami
Miami owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.3% is worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, Rider's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Rider at about 30.8% of its shots from three, Miami about 33.7%.
TurnoversMiami
Miami protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.
Rider has the ball
OffenseMiami allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
51.7% #198
-6.7 pt/100
16.9% #196
18.2% #88
-1.2 pt/100
32.6% #101
25.9% #19
-0.4 pt/100
30.1% #307
29.5% #50
-0.7 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.2 pts/100
Miami has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
55.3% #32
55.2% #335
+6.1 pt/100
16.2% #150
15.3% #268
+1.6 pt/100
37.2% #14
32.8% #294
+3.6 pt/100
37.1% #125
32.5% #116
-0.1 pt/100
68.3% #320
—
-0.4 pt/100
Miami net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Rideroffense vsMiamidefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
Miami allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.2%#36459.8%#21958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.5%#13044.3%#27739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.9%#22737.3%#13838.0%
Three27.7%#36535.8%#29633.7%
Miamioffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
Miami shoots
Rider allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3457.0%#11158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27540.6%#20339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5444.7%#34638.0%
Three34.9%#12737.9%#35633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Rider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Miami
+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#7 of 365
Off reb %
37.2%
#14
Def reb %
74.1%
#19
Turnover %
16.2%
#150
Forced TO %
18.2%
#88
FT rate
37.1%
#125
FT allowed
29.5%
#50
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.2
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.5

Miami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to Rider’s −1.6 (#258).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Rider2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Mark Butlerat LafayetteGSr5'10"32-3233.910.72.24.21.143.7%25.0%0.676.0%20.9%
22Khalil Farmerat UMass LowellGSr6'4"33-014.23.81.50.50.543.2%32.1%1.761.7%18.3%
55Bryce Bakerat CharlestonGSr6'5"8-013.31.61.50.40.426.1%10.5%2.450.0%14.9%
23Horace Simmons Jr.at DrexelFJr6'6"13-06.81.70.90.40.432.8%18.8%1.275.0%22.8%
5Ty Bevinsat G WashingtonGJr6'6"10-07.61.91.30.20.342.1%26.7%1.575.0%17.0%
13Rich Briscoat AkronFSo6'8"8-03.11.30.90.00.450.0%—0.0—27.2%
14Kam Wylieat 2598FSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Bryce PresleyGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11JJ WashingtonGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Mikes ConnellyGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Nasir WashingtonGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Richie RosaGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Segun Ezekiel ObeFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Stephen Avegah SemeyCJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
RiderMiami
Efficiency
100.0
115.9
115.1
103.2
67.2
68.7
—
—
Shooting
42.8%
55.3%
43.3%
56.7%
27.7%
34.9%
70.1%
68.3%
30.1%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
16.2%
15.3%
18.2%
32.6%
37.2%
32.8%
25.9%
9.9%
9.7%
8.3%
10.2%
Style
27.5%
31.9%
43.2%
51.9%
12.6%
14.2%
44.3%
54.4%
33.0%
25.0%
Roster
3.88
3.04
6'0.8"
6'5.9"
0.0%
42.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Rider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
  • Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
  • Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
  • Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Miami
Returning minutes: 42.5%Returning production: 45.1%
Lost
  • Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
  • DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
  • Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
  • Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
  • Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.