SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 16 · 8:00 PM ET · Betty Engelstad Sioux Center, Grand Forks, ND

Non-conferenceBetty Engelstad Sioux Center, Grand Forks, ND

SIUE

2-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #262

North Dakota

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #289

Mon, Nov 16 · 8:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, North Dakota is the faster team (69.0, #235 of 365) and SIUE the slower (68.5, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.9

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.2#320

SIUE

70.3#205

North Dakota

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

North Dakota has the ball+7.6

SIUE has the ball+6.5

North Dakota has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.5% #72 · SIUE forces 15.3% #261 · ~10 turnovers+3.3

✓Shoots it welleFG% 45.1% #265 · SIUE allows 60.7% #329+2.3

✓Gets to the lineFTR 39.9% #138 · SIUE allows 52.3% #316 · FT 75.3% #96+1.2

✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.9% #128 · SIUE allows 32.1% #198+0.8

SIUE has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.4% #208 · UND allows 65.3% #347+6.4

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 19.5% #344 · UND allows 35.8% #174 · FT 66.7% #229−1.0

✓Wins second chancesOR% 30.6% #200 · UND allows 36.4% #269+0.7

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.2% #188 · UND forces 17.4% #198 · ~12 turnovers+0.4

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

SIUEoffense vsNorth Dakotadefense

Share of shots by zone

SIUE shoots

41.4

13.1

18.2

27.3

North Dakota allows

44.9

7.5

3.4

44.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#178	71.2%#317	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	69.2%#28	27.3%#97	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#133	80.0%#349	34.7%
Three	21.2%#344	41.7%#314	32.5%

North Dakotaoffense vsSIUEdefense

Share of shots by zone

North Dakota shoots

43.8

5.0

10.6

40.6

SIUE allows

32.2

12.6

5.7

49.4

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.6%#177	75.0%#340	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	12.5%#314	45.5%#231	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.4%#221	40.0%#212	34.7%
Three	25.3%#298	37.7%#290	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

SIUE

−10.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#200

Def reb %

67.9%

#198

Turnover %

18.2%

#188

Forced TO %

15.3%

#261

FT rate

19.5%

#344

FT allowed

52.3%

#316

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.9

Foul shots drawn−4.7

Foul shots allowed−3.7

North Dakota

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#139 of 365

Off reb %

33.9%

#128

Def reb %

63.6%

#269

Turnover %

14.5%

#72

Forced TO %

17.4%

#198

FT rate

39.9%

#138

FT allowed

35.8%

#174

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers−0.5

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.6

North Dakota has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#139 of 365) to SIUE’s −10.8 (#322).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

SIUE2026-27 numbers · last game: Missouri, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	G	Sr	6'3"	4-4	28.0	32	—	Started last	11.5	1.8	1.8	1.5	48.9%	42.1%	4.8	0.0%	27.3%
11	G	So	6'3"	4-4	26.3	34	—	Started last	8.5	4.3	2.8	1.3	43.9%	14.3%	1.8	100.0%	22.0%
0	F	Jr	6'7"	4-4	24.5	32	—	Started last	10.5	5.8	0.8	0.5	64.8%	20.0%	1.3	58.3%	20.3%
2	G	Jr	6'0"	4-4	24.5	22	—	Started last	10.0	1.3	3.0	2.0	41.1%	9.1%	2.8	60.0%	32.2%
23	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	20.3	16	—	Bench	9.3	6.5	0.5	0.8	72.7%	0.0%	0.3	62.5%	20.3%
4	F	Sr	6'8"	4-4	17.0	21	—	Started last	6.8	1.8	1.5	0.3	66.7%	28.6%	1.8	75.0%	17.6%
55	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	15.0	10	—	Bench	3.3	2.8	3.3	1.3	29.2%	25.0%	1.0	75.0%	20.0%
7	G	So	6'4"	4-0	11.5	7	—	Bench	3.3	0.8	0.3	0.8	55.6%	40.0%	1.3	75.0%	17.1%
21	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	10.8	16	—	Bench	3.8	3.5	0.3	0.8	60.0%	0.0%	0.3	42.9%	22.0%
5	G	Sr	6'5"	4-0	8.5	7	—	Bench	4.8	1.3	0.3	0.0	73.1%	37.5%	2.0	0.0%	22.9%
15	F	Fr	6'10"	4-0	5.5	—	—	Active	2.8	2.3	0.0	0.8	62.5%	—	0.0	100.0%	29.7%
20	F	So	6'8"	3-0	6.3	0	—	Bench	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.7	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	50.0%	21.2%
13	G	Fr	6'2"	3-0	3.7	—	—	Active	3.7	0.3	1.3	0.0	87.5%	50.0%	0.7	100.0%	31.2%
25	C	So	6'10"	1-0	4.0	—	—	Active	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

SIUE

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover −1.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

2-0

Last 10

2-0

avg vs total +8.2

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	MissouriAdjEM #24	A	L 58–96	+29.0	L−9.0	148.5	O154	88.9	147.2	65.2
Nov 7	LipscombAdjEM #200	A	L 77–78	+8.0	W+7.0	144.0	O155	107.3	108.7	71.8
Nov 4	Concordia Chicago Cougars	H	W 85–61	—	—	—	—	121.6	87.3	69.9
Nov 2	Eureka Red Devils	H	W 91–39	—	—	—	—	124.5	53.4	73.1
Mar 4	E IllinoisAdjEM #348	N	L 71–77 OT	−4.5	L−10.5	128.0	O148	102.8	111.5	69.0
Feb 28	E IllinoisAdjEM #348	H	W 77–50	−6.0	W+21.0	130.0	U127	127.9	83.0	60.2
Feb 26	W IllinoisAdjEM #359	H	W 67–47	−14.0	W+6.0	135.5	U114	99.6	69.8	67.3
Feb 21	Tennessee StAdjEM #209	A	L 53–80	+4.5	L−22.5	143.5	U133	83.2	125.6	63.7
Feb 19	Tennessee TechAdjEM #265	A	L 52–62	−2.0	L−12.0	135.0	U114	77.1	92.0	67.4
Feb 14	UT MartinAdjEM #177	H	L 76–81	+1.5	L−3.5	130.0	O157	112.3	119.7	67.7

North Dakota

Against the spread

Season

2-1

Home

0-0

Road

2-1

Last 10

2-1

avg cover +3.7

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

2-1

Home

0-0

Road

2-1

Last 10

2-1

avg vs total +8.0

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	ClemsonAdjEM #70	A	L 77–92	+23.5	W+8.5	154.0	O169	120.8	144.3	63.8
Nov 7	WinthropAdjEM #182	A	W 93–90	+8.5	W+11.5	160.0	O183	124.5	120.5	74.7
Nov 2	MinnesotaAdjEM #55	A	L 50–85	+26.0	L−9.0	149.0	U135	72.9	123.9	68.6
Mar 8	N Dakota StAdjEM #223	N	L 62–70	+11.0	W+3.0	148.0	U132	96.0	108.4	64.6
Mar 7	St ThomasAdjEM #135	N	W 67–66	+11.5	W+12.5	153.5	U133	104.0	102.4	64.4
Mar 6	DenverAdjEM #198	N	W 83–67	+3.5	W+19.5	161.0	U150	121.9	98.4	68.1
Feb 28	N Dakota StAdjEM #223	A	L 63–96	+12.0	L−21.0	152.5	O159	86.1	131.1	73.2
Feb 21	S Dakota StAdjEM #156	A	L 83–91	+8.0	P0.0	151.5	O174	126.2	138.3	65.8
Feb 19	Kansas CityAdjEM #341	H	W 85–70	−9.5	W+5.5	150.5	O155	110.2	90.7	77.1
Feb 14	N Dakota StAdjEM #223	H	L 66–83	+5.5	L−11.5	150.5	U149	101.9	128.1	64.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SIUENorth Dakota

Efficiency

101.2

105.9

107.4

114.3

68.2

70.3

7.8

6.2

Shooting

48.4%

45.1%

54.4%

50.0%

21.2%

25.3%

66.7%

75.3%

19.5%

39.9%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

14.5%

15.3%

17.4%

30.6%

33.9%

32.1%

36.4%

10.2%

6.8%

8.9%

13.9%

Style

26.8%

41.0%

69.6%

45.5%

8.9%

11.8%

41.1%

39.7%

40.0%

40.7%

Roster

2.67

2.81

6'4.7"

6'4.5"

25.5%

19.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SIUE

Returning minutes: 35.3%Returning production: 31.8%

ESPN hasn't posted SIUE's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 35% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

North Dakota

Returning minutes: 20.5%Returning production: 14.1%

Lost

Eli King 31.7 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Greyson Uelmen 27.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg · transferred to Northern Iowa
Garrett Anderson 26.7 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
George Natsvlishvili 18.7 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Winthrop
Anthony Smith III 17.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Winthrop
Marley Curtis 14.3 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to James Madison

Added

Samuel Hincapie from Le Moyne · 14.6 mpg, 4.6 ppg last season
Tyler Wagner from Austin Peay · 5.3 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
Carter Evanson no D1 minutes last season
Zack Parks no D1 minutes last season
DeAngelo Dungey no D1 minutes last season
Luke Winkel no D1 minutes last season

Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 16

Alcorn St at Maryland · 6:00 PM ET
Iona at UMBC · 6:00 PM ET
Prairie View at Ohio State · 6:30 PM ET
Jacksonville at Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
The Citadel at Clemson · 7:00 PM ET
St Thomas at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
Grambling at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Western KY at Tulsa · 7:00 PM ET
E Kentucky at Kent State · 7:00 PM ET
Tarleton St at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Montana at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Minnesota · 8:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at Oklahoma St · 8:00 PM ET
Abilene Chrstn at Missouri St · 8:00 PM ET
Columbia at Northwestern · 8:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Texas A&M · 8:30 PM ET
East Texas A&M at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
Portland St at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
Texas Southern at UC San Diego · 10:00 PM ET
Long Beach St at UCLA · 10:00 PM ET

← Sun, Nov 15 · Tue, Nov 17 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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