Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs Kent State Golden Flashes basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM ET · M.A.C. Center, Kent, OH

Non-conferenceESPN+M.A.C. Center, Kent, OH

E Kentucky

2025-26: 11-21 · 7-12 conf

Efficiency #272

Kent State

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #174

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, E Kentucky is the faster team (68.6, #167 of 365) and Kent State the slower (67.8, #270). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.7

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.5#191

E Kentucky

71.7#108

Kent State

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Kent State has the ball+6.6

E Kentucky has the ball+10.3

Kent State has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 10.3% #8 · EKU forces 14.8% #306 · ~8 turnovers+5.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 43.4% #25 · EKU allows 31.7% #241+3.7

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 41.2% #317 · EKU allows 56.1% #346−2.3

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.7% #257 · EKU allows 38.5% #274 · FT 63.6% #274−0.7

E Kentucky has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.1% #141 · KENT allows 59.3% #318+5.7

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.9% #197 · KENT forces 13.3% #309 · ~10 turnovers+3.4

✓Gets to the lineFTR 30.7% #286 · KENT allows 55.6% #328 · FT 72.4% #193+0.8

✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.5% #106 · KENT allows 31.3% #180+0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

E Kentuckyoffense vsKent Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

E Kentucky shoots

28.6

7.4

13.9

50.2

Kent State allows

40.4

8.5

6.4

44.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#172	68.4%#290	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.4%#211	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.7%#63	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	35.0%#111	36.4%#268	32.5%

Kent Stateoffense vsE Kentuckydefense

Share of shots by zone

Kent State shoots

46.0

4.8

11.1

38.1

E Kentucky allows

36.1

8.0

14.1

41.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	48.3%#287	64.0%#341	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	49.6%#353	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	28.6%#224	47.2%#360	34.7%
Three	25.0%#299	36.2%#312	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

E Kentucky

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#303 of 365

Off reb %

32.5%

#106

Def reb %

68.3%

#241

Turnover %

16.9%

#197

Forced TO %

14.8%

#306

FT rate

30.7%

#286

FT allowed

38.5%

#274

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Kent State

−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#178 of 365

Off reb %

43.4%

#25

Def reb %

68.8%

#180

Turnover %

10.3%

Forced TO %

13.3%

#309

FT rate

29.7%

#257

FT allowed

55.6%

#328

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+3.9

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+5.6

Forcing turnovers−3.4

Foul shots drawn−2.0

Foul shots allowed−4.6

Kent State has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.3 (#178 of 365) to E Kentucky’s −3.0 (#303).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

E Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	F	Jr	6'8"	2-0	21.0	10.5	6.5	1.0	0.5	65.4%	37.5%	4.0	100.0%	18.5%
21	F	Sr	6'7"	2-2	19.5	12.5	9.0	0.0	1.5	85.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	22.7%
10	G	So	6'2"	2-0	19.0	5.0	3.5	4.5	1.5	27.8%	20.0%	2.5	71.4%	19.8%
22	F	Jr	6'8"	2-2	18.5	6.5	8.5	2.0	0.5	54.5%	33.3%	3.0	25.0%	18.7%
11	G	Sr	6'4"	2-0	17.5	12.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	73.5%	50.0%	7.0	—	24.0%
14	F	Jr	6'7"	2-2	17.0	7.0	4.0	3.5	1.0	46.7%	22.2%	4.5	—	24.7%
2	G	So	6'1"	2-2	17.0	9.0	3.0	3.5	0.5	46.7%	36.4%	5.5	100.0%	26.0%
1	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	16.5	12.0	5.5	2.5	1.5	76.7%	25.0%	2.0	50.0%	28.1%
3	G	So	6'2"	2-2	15.5	11.0	2.0	0.5	0.5	45.0%	33.3%	3.0	100.0%	36.4%
5	G	Fr	6'1"	2-0	13.5	9.5	1.0	2.5	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	1.0	75.0%	36.0%
15	G	Fr	6'5"	2-0	10.5	1.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	30.0%	20.0%	2.5	—	14.0%
0	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	7.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	71.4%	0.0%	1.0	—	31.5%
13	G	So	6'5"	2-0	4.0	1.0	0.5	1.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	18.3%
99	G	So	6'2"	2-0	3.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.7%

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

E Kentucky

Against the spread

Season

11-19

Home

5-8

Road

6-10

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −6.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

9-4

Road

9-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +10.1

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	Georgia TechAdjEM #140	A	L 71–85	+15.5	W+1.5	165.5	U156	93.5	111.9	76.0
Nov 6	Midway Eagles	H	W 106–68	—	—	—	—	133.7	85.8	79.3
Nov 2	Kentucky Christian Knights	H	W 105–54	—	—	—	—	125.4	64.5	83.7
Mar 4	StetsonAdjEM #340	N	L 76–92	−6.0	L−22.0	155.0	O168	115.9	140.3	65.6
Feb 28	LipscombAdjEM #200	H	L 77–80	+2.5	L−0.5	159.0	U157	117.7	122.3	65.4
Feb 25	QueensAdjEM #234	H	L 79–96	+2.5	L−14.5	165.5	O175	111.8	135.8	70.7
Feb 21	BellarmineAdjEM #303	A	W 95–92	−2.0	W+1.0	153.0	O187	149.0	144.3	63.7
Feb 18	West GeorgiaAdjEM #309	H	W 81–80 OT	−6.5	L−5.5	154.0	O161	101.6	100.4	79.7
Feb 15	North AlabamaAdjEM #290	A	L 78–84 OT	−4.5	L−10.5	149.5	O162	104.6	112.6	74.6
Feb 11	LipscombAdjEM #200	A	L 61–75	+6.0	L−8.0	161.0	U136	93.2	114.6	65.5

Kent State

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −15.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +15.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	Roberts Wesleyan Redhawks	H	W 102–50	—	—	—	—	126.9	62.2	80.4
Nov 2	Louisiana TechAdjEM #228	A	L 75–85	−5.0	L−15.0	145.0	O160	110.5	125.3	67.8
Mar 18	Illinois StAdjEM #104	A	L 58–79	+4.5	L−16.5	154.5	U137	83.9	114.3	69.1
Mar 13	AkronAdjEM #59	N	L 68–75	+6.5	L−0.5	163.0	U143	99.5	109.7	68.3
Mar 12	OhioAdjEM #168	N	W 86–75	−3.5	W+7.5	160.5	O161	121.1	105.7	71.0
Mar 6	W MichiganAdjEM #233	H	W 86–78	−13.5	L−5.5	157.5	O164	122.5	111.1	70.2
Mar 3	N IllinoisAdjEM #287	A	W 102–76	−10.0	W+16.0	149.5	O178	134.5	100.2	75.9
Feb 27	AkronAdjEM #59	H	L 70–92	+3.5	L−18.5	165.0	U162	99.4	130.7	70.4
Feb 24	C MichiganAdjEM #254	H	W 83–81	−12.0	L−10.0	157.0	O164	124.1	121.1	66.9
Feb 17	Bowling GreenAdjEM #127	A	W 78–71	+2.5	W+9.5	151.5	U149	107.5	97.9	72.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

E KentuckyKent State

Efficiency

106.3

108.2

112.8

109.3

70.5

71.7

—

-4.1

Shooting

52.1%

41.2%

51.6%

43.5%

35.0%

25.0%

72.4%

63.6%

30.7%

29.7%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

10.3%

14.8%

13.3%

32.5%

43.4%

31.7%

31.3%

10.3%

5.9%

8.4%

2.2%

Style

50.8%

37.8%

34.5%

45.3%

12.0%

16.0%

53.3%

33.3%

36.8%

44.9%

Roster

3.29

2.98

6'6"

6'4.4"

28.0%

11.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

E Kentucky

Returning minutes: 28.0%Returning production: 24.2%

Lost

Montavious Myrick 28.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Turner Buttry 26.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Juan Cranford Jr. 25.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
MJ Williams 23.7 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Longwood
Jalen Cooper 17.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jayden Harris 10.3 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to UMass Lowell

Added

Shadrak Lasu from Long Island · 21.6 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
Damone King from Rhode Island · 5.3 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
Omer Hamama from Kent State · 5.1 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
Cade Murphy no D1 minutes last season
Duje Dujmovic no D1 minutes last season
Josh Lowe no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Kent State

Returning minutes: 15.4%Returning production: 15.0%

Lost

Cian Medley 32.4 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to East Carolina
Delrecco Gillespie 32.2 mpg, 17.7 ppg · transferred to Houston
Morgan Safford 29.4 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jahari Williamson 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Pepperdine
Rob Whaley Jr. 22.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rayvon Griffith 13.4 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Cleveland St

Added

Christian Henry from Fordham · 26.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
Cameron Williams from Portland · 21.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
Godslove Nwabude from E Michigan · 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
Chansey Willis Jr. from Minnesota · 5.6 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
Latif Diouf from Chattanooga · 2.3 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
Jakhi Calloway no D1 minutes last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 18	2025-26	E Kentucky 78 – 93 Kent State

More games on Mon, Nov 16

Alcorn St at Maryland · 6:00 PM ET
Iona at UMBC · 6:00 PM ET
Prairie View at Ohio State · 6:30 PM ET
Jacksonville at Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
The Citadel at Clemson · 7:00 PM ET
St Thomas at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
Grambling at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Western KY at Tulsa · 7:00 PM ET
Tarleton St at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Montana at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Minnesota · 8:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at Oklahoma St · 8:00 PM ET
Abilene Chrstn at Missouri St · 8:00 PM ET
Columbia at Northwestern · 8:00 PM ET
SIUE at North Dakota · 8:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Texas A&M · 8:30 PM ET
East Texas A&M at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
Portland St at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
Texas Southern at UC San Diego · 10:00 PM ET
Long Beach St at UCLA · 10:00 PM ET

← Sun, Nov 15 · Tue, Nov 17 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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