East Texas A&M Lions vs Oregon State Beavers basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 16 · 9:30 PM ET · Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR

Non-conferenceYouTubeGill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR

East Texas A&M

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #220

Oregon St

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #91

Mon, Nov 16 · 9:30 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Oregon St is the faster team (74.1, #84 of 365) and East Texas A&M the slower (67.1, #289). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.5#259

East Texas A&M

71.5#118

Oregon St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Oregon St has the ball+8.4

East Texas A&M has the ball−1.8

Oregon St has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 34.0% #125 · ETAM allows 40.7% #319+2.7

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.5% #54 · ETAM forces 18.6% #146 · ~11 turnovers+2.1

✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.5% #41 · ETAM allows 43.7% #62+2.0

✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.7% #71 · ETAM allows 43.7% #255 · FT 84.9% #15+1.7

East Texas A&M has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 48.0% #222 · ORST allows 44.0% #67−4.6

✓Wins second chancesOR% 48.1% #6 · ORST allows 28.8% #137+4.4

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.8% #255 · ORST allows 21.2% #26 · FT 56.8% #333−2.0

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.4% #299 · ORST forces 13.9% #291 · ~13 turnovers+0.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

East Texas A&Moffense vsOregon Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

East Texas A&M shoots

33.1

12.1

10.5

44.4

Oregon St allows

30.1

6.4

23.7

39.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.2%#258	48.1%#59	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	36.4%#174	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	15.4%#312	46.3%#276	34.7%
Three	38.2%#80	28.7%#105	32.5%

Oregon Stoffense vsEast Texas A&Mdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon St shoots

35.4

10.1

6.3

48.1

East Texas A&M allows

37.0

16.8

6.7

39.5

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	73.2%#27	56.8%#160	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#165	20.0%#54	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.0%#213	25.0%#85	34.7%
Three	38.4%#79	29.8%#123	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

East Texas A&M

−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365

Off reb %

48.1%

Def reb %

59.3%

#319

Turnover %

22.4%

#299

Forced TO %

18.6%

#146

FT rate

29.8%

#255

FT allowed

43.7%

#255

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+5.5

Defensive rebounding−3.0

Ball security−2.9

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−2.0

Foul shots allowed−1.5

Oregon St

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365

Off reb %

34.0%

#125

Def reb %

71.2%

#137

Turnover %

13.5%

#54

Forced TO %

13.9%

#291

FT rate

46.7%

#71

FT allowed

21.2%

#26

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security+3.4

Forcing turnovers−2.9

Foul shots drawn+2.4

Foul shots allowed+4.4

Oregon St has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#65 of 365) to East Texas A&M’s −3.5 (#233).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

East Texas A&M2026-27 numbers · last game: Rice, Nov 5

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	F	Fr	6'9"	2-2	33.5	34	—	Started last	19.0	6.5	2.5	2.5	56.7%	36.4%	5.5	100.0%	33.2%
4	G	Fr	6'2"	2-2	28.0	32	—	Started last	2.5	5.0	3.5	1.5	50.0%	100.0%	0.5	0.0%	9.6%
8	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	27.0	29	—	Started last	14.5	6.0	3.5	2.0	46.4%	42.1%	9.5	42.9%	39.4%
1	F	Jr	6'4"	2-2	26.5	28	—	Started last	19.0	2.5	4.5	3.5	50.0%	41.7%	6.0	81.8%	46.9%
20	F	Fr	6'6"	2-0	26.0	25	—	Bench	7.5	4.5	0.5	1.5	50.0%	28.6%	3.5	33.3%	21.4%
21	F	Fr	6'9"	2-0	24.0	26	—	Bench	2.0	7.5	1.0	0.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	25.0%	13.5%
10	F	Fr	6'4"	2-0	14.5	13	—	Bench	2.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	62.5%	50.0%	1.0	—	10.4%
24	F	Jr	6'7"	2-2	13.5	12	—	Started last	0.0	4.0	2.0	1.5	0.0%	—	0.0	—	11.2%
12	G	Jr	6'0"	2-0	7.0	2	—	Bench	3.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	1.0	100.0%	34.9%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

East Texas A&M

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

2-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +19.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −9.5

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 5	RiceAdjEM #264	A	W 72–71	+3.5	W+4.5	145.5	U143	106.0	104.5	68.0
Nov 2	OklahomaAdjEM #101	A	W 68–64	+29.5	W+33.5	148.5	U132	102.7	96.7	66.2
Mar 2	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #183	A	L 71–84	+8.0	L−5.0	137.5	O155	105.6	124.9	67.2
Feb 28	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #134	A	L 55–63	+10.0	W+2.0	147.5	U118	95.5	109.4	57.6
Feb 23	Hou ChristianAdjEM #275	H	L 68–69	−2.0	L−3.0	139.5	U137	106.1	107.6	64.1
Feb 21	Incarnate WordAdjEM #337	H	L 73–82	−4.0	L−13.0	146.5	O155	127.6	143.4	57.2
Feb 16	SE LouisianaAdjEM #283	H	W 70–53	−1.5	W+15.5	136.5	U123	103.3	78.2	67.7
Feb 14	McNeeseAdjEM #62	H	L 54–97	+13.5	L−29.5	142.5	O151	79.3	142.4	68.1
Feb 9	SF AustinAdjEM #96	A	L 70–74	+15.0	W+11.0	144.5	U144	104.7	110.7	66.8
Feb 7	N'Western StAdjEM #329	H	W 52–48	−2.0	W+2.0	141.5	U100	78.1	72.1	66.5

Oregon St

Against the spread

Season

2-1

Home

2-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-1

avg cover +7.8

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

3-0

Home

3-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

3-0

avg vs total +8.0

Over 3 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	E WashingtonAdjEM #212	H	W 94–84	−17.0	L−7.0	163.0	O178	123.7	110.5	76.0
Nov 6	CA BaptistAdjEM #239	H	W 96–68	−20.5	W+7.5	157.5	O164	144.5	102.4	66.4
Nov 2	Weber StAdjEM #281	H	W 102–61	−18.0	W+23.0	160.5	O163	127.6	76.3	79.9
Mar 9	#12GonzagaAdjEM #6	N	L 56–65	+20.5	W+11.5	145.0	U121	88.7	102.9	63.1
Mar 8	San FranciscoAdjEM #125	N	W 78–77	+3.5	W+4.5	145.5	O155	118.1	116.6	66.0
Feb 28	Santa ClaraAdjEM #53	A	L 72–93	+16.5	L−4.5	153.0	O165	105.2	135.8	68.5
Feb 25	San DiegoAdjEM #245	H	W 92–82 OT	−6.5	W+3.5	144.0	O174	123.8	110.3	74.3
Feb 21	PepperdineAdjEM #270	H	W 83–73	−9.0	W+1.0	148.5	O156	115.3	101.4	72.0
Feb 15	Seattle UAdjEM #112	A	L 50–60	+7.0	L−3.0	136.0	U110	78.0	93.6	64.1
Feb 12	San FranciscoAdjEM #125	A	W 90–63	+9.0	W+36.0	141.0	O153	148.3	103.8	60.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

East Texas A&MOregon St

Efficiency

101.1

111.9

104.7

105.0

69.5

71.5

-0.0

-5.0

Shooting

48.0%

59.5%

40.6%

61.2%

38.2%

38.4%

56.8%

84.9%

29.8%

46.7%

Ball control & glass

22.4%

13.5%

18.6%

13.9%

48.1%

34.0%

40.7%

28.8%

12.7%

9.9%

18.8%

5.1%

Style

44.4%

46.7%

37.1%

37.7%

15.0%

14.4%

75.5%

57.0%

35.8%

43.5%

Roster

1.88

2.56

6'4.9"

6'5.9"

0.0%

16.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

East Texas A&M

Returning minutes: 6.8%Returning production: 1.1%

Lost

Gianni Hunt 30.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ronnie Harrison 27.7 mpg, 13.8 ppg · transferred to Washington St
Noah Pagotto 26.1 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to N Kentucky
Damian Garcia 26.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Vinny Sigona 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Josh Taylor 16.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Alonzo Dodd from App State · 31.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
Jaxson Ford from Sam Houston · 5.6 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
Kollin Tolbert no D1 minutes last season
Codrut Dinu no D1 minutes last season
Chris Adlam no D1 minutes last season
Maxime Carrio no D1 minutes last season

Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oregon St

Returning minutes: 16.8%Returning production: 21.5%

Lost

Isaiah Sy 28.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to San Diego St
Dez White 26.9 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Temple
Johan Munch 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to SMU
Olavi Suutela 17.5 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to UC San Diego
Jorge Diaz Graham 17.4 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keziah Ekissi 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to CSU Northridge

Added

Jackson Rasmussen from Idaho · 30.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
DeShawn Gory from Fresno St · 29.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
Daniel Freitag from Buffalo · 23.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
Legend Smiley from San Francisco · 21.3 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
Chris Johnson from UCF · 15.3 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
Dennis Evans from Grand Canyon · 6.6 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 16

Alcorn St at Maryland · 6:00 PM ET
Iona at UMBC · 6:00 PM ET
Prairie View at Ohio State · 6:30 PM ET
Jacksonville at Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
The Citadel at Clemson · 7:00 PM ET
St Thomas at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
Grambling at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Western KY at Tulsa · 7:00 PM ET
E Kentucky at Kent State · 7:00 PM ET
Tarleton St at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Montana at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Minnesota · 8:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at Oklahoma St · 8:00 PM ET
Abilene Chrstn at Missouri St · 8:00 PM ET
Columbia at Northwestern · 8:00 PM ET
SIUE at North Dakota · 8:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Texas A&M · 8:30 PM ET
Portland St at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
Texas Southern at UC San Diego · 10:00 PM ET
Long Beach St at UCLA · 10:00 PM ET

← Sun, Nov 15 · Tue, Nov 17 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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