CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA
Jacksonville
Efficiency #294
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf
@
Georgia
Efficiency #32
2025-26: 22-11 · 10-9 conf
Mon, Nov 16 · TBD
68.0
win 7%
Projected
85.3
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: UGA −17.3 · total 153.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia 71.5, Jacksonville 65.8 → 69.0 possessions
+1.4
Georgia offense vs Jacksonville defense
+8.5
Jacksonville offense vs Georgia defense
−4.9
Projected total
153.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia offense vs Jacksonville defense
+8.5
Jacksonville offense vs Georgia defense
+4.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Georgia by 17.3
17.3
Jacksonville side ◂▸ Georgia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.2 against a projected 153.3, and the margin steps add to +17.4 against +17.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia is the faster team (73.6, #8 of 365) and Jacksonville the slower (65.2, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.3
model
Projected team totals
68.0 / 85.3
Jacksonville / Georgia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.8#348
Jacksonville
71.5#10
Georgia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageGeorgia
Where Georgia scores: shooting
Georgia shoots an effective 54.2% (#61); Jacksonville allows 54.8% (#325). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Georgia averages 73.6 possessions per 40, Jacksonville 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversGeorgia
Georgia protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Georgia's offense.
ClashJacksonville
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Jacksonville (#29 in shot-blocking exposure) against Georgia (#10 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 12.3%. Historically Georgia's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ClashJacksonville
Style match: ball movement
Jacksonville creates off the dribble (assists on 44.7% of its baskets); Georgia breaks up passing offenses (assists on 48.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.6% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Jacksonville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jacksonville at about 36.6% of its shots from three, Georgia about 40.6%.
Jacksonville has the ball
OffenseGeorgia allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #232
50.6% #134
-1.5 pt/100
17.2% #223
18.4% #81
-1.6 pt/100
31.7% #137
34.9% #336
+1.9 pt/100
32.8% #242
30.2% #65
-0.5 pt/100
72.3% #198
—
-0.0 pt/100
Jacksonville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100
Georgia has the ball
OffenseJacksonville allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #61
54.8% #325
+4.9 pt/100
14.3% #31
15.0% #290
+3.2 pt/100
34.9% #49
29.1% #115
+1.5 pt/100
36.9% #131
42.7% #336
+0.7 pt/100
75.0% #81
—
+0.2 pt/100
Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Jacksonvilleoffense vsGeorgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Jacksonville shoots
Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23556.7%#10658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.4%#34643.8%#26539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.6%#8938.7%#18638.0%
Three31.7%#28933.6%#16533.7%
Georgiaoffense vsJacksonvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia shoots
Jacksonville allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.2%#6862.6%#31258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.0%#5135.6%#7939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.1%#21834.9%#7438.0%
Three33.8%#18536.3%#31833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Jacksonville
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#307 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#137
Def reb %
70.9%
#115
Turnover %
17.2%
#223
Forced TO %
15.0%
#290
FT rate
32.8%
#242
FT allowed
42.7%
#336
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.9
Georgia
+4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#49
Def reb %
65.1%
#336
Turnover %
14.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#81
FT rate
36.9%
#131
FT allowed
30.2%
#65
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.3

Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.7 (#28 of 365) to Jacksonville’s −3.1 (#307).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Hayden WoodGFr6'6"32-3127.011.83.21.30.855.9%37.7%4.771.6%24.8%
2Jaylen JonesGJr6'0"31-2926.99.73.52.62.149.4%33.3%2.766.7%26.1%
34Evan SterckGFr6'1"32-2324.76.42.03.11.547.6%30.6%3.178.8%19.6%
11Chris Lockett Jr.GSo6'4"32-1124.59.33.11.70.845.1%30.6%3.484.6%24.9%
31Jason Thirdkill Jr.FSr6'7"32-2422.68.05.40.50.856.3%30.4%1.876.1%19.9%
33Donovan RiversFJr6'9"32-2820.08.64.60.61.654.9%0.0%0.164.4%27.7%
1Chris AriasGSo6'6"30-417.97.32.30.70.752.7%36.1%4.084.4%24.5%
22Charles CaporasoCSo7'0"26-410.74.12.30.30.457.1%0.0%0.075.0%21.1%
14Allen UdemaduFSr6'10"24-011.43.62.50.21.060.0%—0.075.0%20.8%
23Enrico BorioFSo6'8"21-512.13.01.80.50.746.6%27.7%2.253.8%18.1%
0Jaylen JordonFSr6'8"22-111.53.52.70.31.061.1%—0.071.4%19.2%
9Michael Harper Jr.GFr6'3"15-06.92.70.90.50.241.5%23.1%0.920.0%29.6%
10Simon WheelerGSr5'10"8-07.41.40.61.61.150.0%20.0%0.60.0%19.3%
4Anakin BrownGFr6'3"3-09.71.72.01.00.316.7%16.7%2.066.7%18.9%
6Lamont JacksonGSo6'0"4-04.02.30.50.30.341.7%25.0%1.0100.0%27.8%
12Roman LouxGFr6'0"4-03.31.50.30.00.075.0%0.0%0.30.0%21.2%
5Tito DengFJr6'11"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
JacksonvilleGeorgia
Efficiency
104.9
117.4
111.9
105.0
65.8
71.5
—
—
Shooting
50.0%
54.2%
51.5%
57.0%
31.7%
33.8%
72.3%
75.0%
32.8%
36.9%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
14.3%
15.0%
18.4%
31.7%
34.9%
29.1%
34.9%
10.2%
9.4%
7.5%
9.8%
Style
37.4%
44.3%
44.0%
43.2%
11.1%
22.1%
44.7%
48.1%
38.8%
41.6%
Roster
2.36
3.56
6'5.2"
6'6.2"
—
44.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Jacksonville
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Georgia
Returning minutes: 44.2%Returning production: 44.6%
Lost
  • Jeremiah Wilkinson 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
  • Somto Cyril 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jordan Ross 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to California
  • Dylan James 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Bailey 11.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Abson 10.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Freddie Dilione V from Penn State · 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
  • James Scott from Ole Miss · 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
  • Brady Dunlap from Saint Louis · 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
  • Andrew Osasuyi from St Bonaventure · 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Mading Kuany no D1 minutes last season
  • Donovan Williams Jr. no D1 minutes last season

Returns 44% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.