CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceXFINITY Center, College Park, MD

Alcorn St

Efficiency #355

2025-26: 9-23 · 8-12 conf

Maryland

Efficiency #198

2025-26: 12-21 · 5-17 conf

Mon, Nov 16 · TBD

66.1

win 13%

Projected

79.3

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: MD −13.2 · total 145.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Maryland 67.7, Alcorn St 68.6 → 68.0 possessions

−0.8

Maryland offense vs Alcorn St defense

+3.6

Alcorn St offense vs Maryland defense

−5.6

Projected total

145.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Maryland offense vs Alcorn St defense

+3.6

Alcorn St offense vs Maryland defense

+5.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Maryland by 13.2

13.2

Alcorn St side ◂▸ Maryland side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +13.1 against +13.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Maryland.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alcorn St is the faster team (69.4, #119 of 365) and Maryland the slower (66.7, #257). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.4

model

Projected team totals

66.1 / 79.3

Alcorn St / Maryland

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#154

Alcorn St

67.7#239

Maryland

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMaryland

Where Maryland scores: the offensive glass

Maryland rebounds 33.8% of its own misses (#73); Alcorn St lets opponents grab 35.5% of their own misses (#347). Expect about 35.3%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversMaryland

Maryland turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Maryland's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Maryland's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Alcorn St at about 37.1% of its shots from three, Maryland about 42.6%.

AdvantageAlcorn St

Where Alcorn St struggles: the offensive glass

Alcorn St rebounds 26.9% of its own misses (#297); Maryland lets opponents grab 29.1% of their own misses (#111). Expect about 27.3%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMaryland

Style clash: 3-point volume

Maryland takes 46.9% of its shots from three; Alcorn St runs teams off the line (35.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashAlcorn St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Alcorn St rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Maryland lets opponents take 43.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Alcorn St has the ball

OffenseMaryland allowsvs D1 avg

47.7% #320

54.4% #312

-0.7 pt/100

19.6% #339

14.9% #296

-0.5 pt/100

26.9% #297

29.1% #111

-1.9 pt/100

31.8% #259

35.8% #205

-0.1 pt/100

70.8% #245

—

-0.1 pt/100

Alcorn St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Maryland has the ball

OffenseAlcorn St allowsvs D1 avg

48.1% #311

55.0% #330

+0.1 pt/100

18.6% #304

18.1% #93

-2.3 pt/100

33.8% #73

35.5% #347

+3.0 pt/100

36.4% #142

39.4% #293

+0.4 pt/100

72.2% #202

—

-0.0 pt/100

Maryland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Alcorn Stoffense vsMarylanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Alcorn St shoots

40.5

7.1

18.6

33.8

Maryland allows

37.3

4.4

14.6

43.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.2%#319	59.6%#211	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#133	31.9%#22	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.4%#351	41.3%#283	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	36.3%#317	33.7%

Marylandoffense vsAlcorn Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Maryland shoots

32.6

5.0

15.9

46.5

Alcorn St allows

45.8

5.4

13.5

35.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.8%#279	65.9%#356	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#328	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#129	34.7%#68	38.0%
Three	31.7%#293	33.0%#120	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Alcorn St

−5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#352 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#297

Def reb %

64.5%

#347

Turnover %

19.6%

#339

Forced TO %

18.1%

#93

FT rate

31.8%

#259

FT allowed

39.4%

#293

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Maryland

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365

Off reb %

33.8%

#73

Def reb %

70.9%

#111

Turnover %

18.6%

#304

Forced TO %

14.9%

#296

FT rate

36.4%

#142

FT allowed

35.8%

#205

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+0.3

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Maryland has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#204 of 365) to Alcorn St’s −5.5 (#352).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Alcorn St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Nick Woodard	SF	Sr	6'6"	32-32	28.7	8.6	4.2	1.3	1.6	46.5%	30.8%	3.3	61.7%	21.1%
0	Shane Lancaster	G	Jr	6'4"	32-26	28.6	10.8	2.3	2.2	1.2	53.6%	43.0%	4.4	72.5%	21.8%
1	Jameel Morris	PG	Jr	6'1"	30-25	29.5	11.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	48.5%	29.0%	2.3	78.9%	24.9%
8	Tycen McDaniels	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	27.3	12.0	6.1	1.0	2.6	52.8%	25.0%	0.3	75.4%	27.5%
3	Davian Williams	PG	So	5'10"	32-16	26.4	7.8	2.9	1.3	1.6	44.2%	32.5%	3.8	68.0%	21.7%
12	Omari Hamilton	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	21.4	7.8	4.5	0.5	1.2	48.5%	35.4%	1.5	69.6%	23.4%
30	Travis Roberts	SG	Sr	6'6"	31-10	16.5	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.5	41.5%	29.1%	2.5	50.0%	16.6%
4	Bryson Calamese	PG	Jr	6'2"	31-1	11.1	3.0	0.9	1.2	1.1	38.7%	28.6%	0.9	73.3%	23.5%
22	Mike Jones	SG	Fr	6'7"	13-5	15.0	3.5	3.4	1.1	1.2	40.2%	11.1%	0.7	47.1%	19.5%
2	Jeremy Ellis	PF	Jr	6'6"	22-0	6.3	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	42.9%	—	0.0	83.3%	11.8%
6	William Henderson	F	Jr	6'10"	11-0	10.4	2.6	1.6	0.1	1.0	42.2%	20.0%	0.5	40.0%	22.2%
10	Alex Hawkins	SG	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ray Glasgow	SG	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Maryland2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Elijah Saunders	F	Sr	6'8"	33-32	30.7	9.0	4.4	0.9	1.1	56.4%	41.1%	4.3	80.0%	17.2%
7	Andre Mills	G	Fr	6'4"	33-25	26.7	12.2	4.1	1.6	1.7	49.2%	34.6%	4.8	76.7%	29.7%
8	David Coit	G	Sr	5'11"	33-16	26.7	13.5	1.8	2.8	1.8	51.0%	32.4%	6.6	85.6%	31.4%
1	Darius Adams	G	Fr	6'5"	33-28	25.6	10.8	3.4	1.6	2.0	40.6%	24.8%	4.0	71.4%	31.5%
12	Isaiah Watts	G	Jr	6'3"	32-8	17.0	4.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	44.5%	29.3%	3.1	64.3%	18.8%
45	Collin Metcalf	C	Sr	6'9"	31-13	13.5	1.3	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.0	38.5%	8.2%
2	Myles Rice	G	Jr	6'3"	17-4	16.5	5.6	2.1	1.3	1.4	43.3%	34.4%	1.9	92.6%	24.4%
21	Pharrel Payne	F	Sr	6'9"	10-10	26.8	17.5	7.2	1.4	2.7	62.4%	—	0.0	71.9%	32.8%
11	George Turkson Jr.	G	Fr	6'7"	23-5	11.4	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	10.3%
18	Guillermo Del Pino	G	Fr	6'5"	23-2	9.3	1.6	0.7	0.5	0.6	37.0%	27.6%	1.3	50.0%	17.5%
24	Aleks Alston	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	8.4	1.4	1.7	0.3	0.4	40.3%	20.8%	1.0	55.6%	13.8%
15	Jaziah Harper	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
30	Lukas Sotell	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Nick Blake	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Rakease Passmore	G	So	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Alcorn St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Nick Woodard	SF	Sr	6'6"	32-32	28.7	8.6	4.2	1.3	1.6	46.5%	30.8%	3.3	61.7%	21.1%
0	Shane Lancaster	G	Jr	6'4"	32-26	28.6	10.8	2.3	2.2	1.2	53.6%	43.0%	4.4	72.5%	21.8%
1	Jameel Morris	PG	Jr	6'1"	30-25	29.5	11.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	48.5%	29.0%	2.3	78.9%	24.9%
8	Tycen McDaniels	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	27.3	12.0	6.1	1.0	2.6	52.8%	25.0%	0.3	75.4%	27.5%
3	Davian Williams	PG	So	5'10"	32-16	26.4	7.8	2.9	1.3	1.6	44.2%	32.5%	3.8	68.0%	21.7%
12	Omari Hamilton	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	21.4	7.8	4.5	0.5	1.2	48.5%	35.4%	1.5	69.6%	23.4%
30	Travis Roberts	SG	Sr	6'6"	31-10	16.5	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.5	41.5%	29.1%	2.5	50.0%	16.6%
4	Bryson Calamese	PG	Jr	6'2"	31-1	11.1	3.0	0.9	1.2	1.1	38.7%	28.6%	0.9	73.3%	23.5%
22	Mike Jones	SG	Fr	6'7"	13-5	15.0	3.5	3.4	1.1	1.2	40.2%	11.1%	0.7	47.1%	19.5%
2	Jeremy Ellis	PF	Jr	6'6"	22-0	6.3	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	42.9%	—	0.0	83.3%	11.8%
6	William Henderson	F	Jr	6'10"	11-0	10.4	2.6	1.6	0.1	1.0	42.2%	20.0%	0.5	40.0%	22.2%
10	Alex Hawkins	SG	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ray Glasgow	SG	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Alcorn St

Against the spread

Season

16-14-2

Home

5-4

Road

9-9-2

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16-2

Home

2-7

Road

11-8-1

Last 10

2-6-2

avg vs total −4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	L 56–65	+6.0	L−3.0	142.5	U121	84.2	97.7	66.5
Mar 9	Alabama StAdjEM #324	N	W 77–65	+7.5	W+19.5	142.0	P142	109.4	92.4	70.4
Mar 5	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	H	L 48–83	+1.0	L−34.0	144.0	U131	64.5	111.6	74.4
Mar 3	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 67–64	−9.5	L−6.5	139.0	U131	103.7	99.1	64.6
Feb 28	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 51–72	+4.5	L−16.5	150.0	U123	72.5	102.3	70.4
Feb 26	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 87–92 OT	+6.5	W+1.5	145.0	O179	109.3	115.6	79.6
Feb 21	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 83–65	−1.0	W+17.0	149.0	U148	115.8	90.7	71.7
Feb 16	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	L 78–86	+1.5	L−6.5	137.0	O164	109.0	120.1	71.6
Feb 14	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	W 57–55	+8.0	W+10.0	145.0	U112	89.3	86.2	63.8
Feb 9	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	A	W 74–66	−5.5	W+2.5	140.0	P140	126.0	112.4	58.7

Maryland

Against the spread

Season

15-16-2

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +1.9

Covered 3 straightCovered 7 of 9 as an underdogCovered 4 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

9-6

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −6.5

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 64–75	+12.0	W+1.0	134.5	O139	97.4	114.1	65.7
Mar 10	OregonAdjEM #143	N	W 70–60	+4.0	W+14.0	139.0	U130	111.5	95.6	62.8
Mar 8	#11IllinoisAdjEM #4	H	L 72–78	+14.0	W+8.0	145.0	O150	117.6	127.4	61.2
Mar 4	WisconsinAdjEM #28	A	L 45–78	+14.5	L−18.5	153.5	U123	77.9	135.0	57.8
Mar 1	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	L 65–69	−5.0	L−9.0	143.5	U134	92.5	98.2	70.3
Feb 25	#12NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 61–74	+16.5	W+3.5	141.0	U135	95.9	116.4	63.6
Feb 21	WashingtonAdjEM #59	H	W 64–60	+3.0	W+7.0	143.5	U124	112.7	105.7	56.8
Feb 18	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	A	L 74–78	+8.0	W+4.0	142.5	O152	112.2	118.3	65.9
Feb 15	RutgersAdjEM #192	A	L 57–68	+3.0	L−8.0	142.5	U125	88.0	105.0	64.8
Feb 11	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 77–70	+10.0	W+17.0	139.0	O147	123.8	112.6	62.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Alcorn StMaryland

Efficiency

99.6

107.9

114.4

109.1

68.6

67.7

—

Shooting

47.7%

48.1%

46.5%

48.6%

33.3%

31.7%

70.8%

72.2%

31.8%

36.4%

Ball control & glass

19.6%

18.6%

18.1%

14.9%

26.9%

33.8%

35.5%

29.1%

10.5%

9.5%

11.1%

11.6%

Style

33.7%

46.9%

45.4%

34.4%

14.8%

8.7%

46.6%

45.2%

30.7%

31.4%

Roster

3.14

2.61

6'4.1"

6'4.9"

—

87.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Alcorn St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Maryland

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.1%

Lost

Solomon Washington 24.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nick Blake no D1 minutes last season
Rakease Passmore no D1 minutes last season
Lukas Sotell no D1 minutes last season
Jaziah Harper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 11	2025-26	Alcorn St 64 – 84 Maryland

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.