CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGreat Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO
Abilene Chrstn
Efficiency #263
2025-26: 14-19 · 6-14 conf
@
Missouri St
Efficiency #212
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-13 conf
Mon, Nov 16 · TBD
68.0
win 30%
Projected
74.2
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: MOST −6.2 · total 142.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Missouri St 66.9, Abilene Chrstn 68.4 → 67.0 possessions
−2.8
Missouri St offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense
−0.5
Abilene Chrstn offense vs Missouri St defense
−2.8
Projected total
142.1
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Missouri St offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense
−0.5
Abilene Chrstn offense vs Missouri St defense
+2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Missouri St by 6.2
6.2
Abilene Chrstn side ◂▸ Missouri St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Missouri St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Abilene Chrstn is the faster team (68.9, #153 of 365) and Missouri St the slower (66.3, #283). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.1
model
Projected team totals
68.0 / 74.2
Abilene Chrstn / Missouri St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.4#177
Abilene Chrstn
66.9#293
Missouri St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMissouri St
Where Missouri St struggles: ball control
Missouri St turns it over on 16.7% of possessions (#177); Abilene Chrstn forces turnovers on 23.4% of opponent possessions (#2). Expect about 21.0%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageAbilene Chrstn
Where Abilene Chrstn struggles: ball control
Abilene Chrstn turns it over on 20.8% of possessions (#356); Missouri St forces turnovers on 16.9% of opponent possessions (#159). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseAbilene Chrstn
Abilene Chrstn's ball-hawking
Abilene Chrstn ranks #3 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.3% of Missouri St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashAbilene Chrstn
Style match: 3-point volume
Abilene Chrstn rarely shoots threes (32.8% of its shots); Missouri St runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.8% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Abilene Chrstn, Abilene Chrstn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Abilene Chrstn at about 31.8% of its shots from three, Missouri St about 34.8%.
Abilene Chrstn has the ball
OffenseMissouri St allowsvs D1 avg
47.5% #326
52.0% #217
-2.6 pt/100
20.8% #356
16.9% #159
-3.0 pt/100
31.0% #164
32.1% #261
+0.7 pt/100
41.7% #34
40.2% #304
+0.8 pt/100
70.4% #258
—
-0.2 pt/100
Abilene Chrstn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.2 pts/100
Missouri St has the ball
OffenseAbilene Chrstn allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #191
56.5% #352
+3.6 pt/100
16.7% #177
23.4% #2
-5.1 pt/100
32.0% #124
29.1% #113
+0.3 pt/100
43.8% #12
53.5% #365
+1.9 pt/100
67.3% #338
—
-0.4 pt/100
Missouri St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersAbilene Chrstnoffense vsMissouri Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Abilene Chrstn shoots
40.0
8.0
18.8
33.2
Missouri St allows
30.9
12.7
20.7
35.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.7%#280 | 68.2%#365 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.2%#300 | 33.3%#31 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.1%#108 | 40.1%#245 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.0%#319 | 34.4%#209 | 33.7% |
Missouri Stoffense vsAbilene Chrstndefense
Share of shots by zone
Missouri St shoots
31.5
13.7
13.9
41.0
Abilene Chrstn allows
49.0
8.0
13.4
29.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.9%#39 | 60.3%#243 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#235 | 39.3%#163 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#151 | 39.3%#214 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#236 | 40.9%#365 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersAbilene Chrstn
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#199 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#164
Def reb %
70.9%
#113
Turnover %
20.8%
#356
Forced TO %
23.4%
#2
FT rate
41.7%
#34
FT allowed
53.5%
#365
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−2.8
Forcing turnovers+4.6
Foul shots drawn+1.7
Foul shots allowed−4.7
Missouri St
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#130 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#124
Def reb %
67.9%
#261
Turnover %
16.7%
#177
Forced TO %
16.9%
#159
FT rate
43.8%
#12
FT allowed
40.2%
#304
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−1.3
Missouri St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#130 of 365) to Abilene Chrstn’s −0.5 (#199).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Abilene Chrstn2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rich Smith | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 29.5 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 51.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 63.8% | 22.6% | |
| 15 | Bradyn Hubbard | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-29 | 28.1 | 16.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 45.5% | 31.3% | 4.5 | 79.9% | 37.0% | |
| 23 | Joseph Venzant | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-23 | 25.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.3% | 41.4% | 0.9 | 77.3% | 10.4% | |
| 5 | Cbo Newton | G | So | 6'3" | 30-24 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52.5% | 30.6% | 3.3 | 69.0% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Yaniel Rivera | G | Jr | 6'3" | 29-21 | 24.4 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 49.2% | 36.7% | 4.4 | 69.0% | 20.5% | |
| 0 | Zy Wright | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-6 | 17.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 51.7% | 30.8% | 2.0 | 85.0% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Cade Hornecker | F | Jr | 7'0" | 33-19 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 46.6% | 15.0% | 0.6 | 69.8% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joseph Scott | F | Jr | 6'9" | 28-7 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 51.3% | 24.4% | |
| 7 | Christian Alston | G | So | 6'7" | 30-0 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 38.1% | 22.2% | 1.5 | 69.4% | 31.6% | |
| 11 | Ma'Shy Hill | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-7 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 61.9% | — | 0.0 | 39.3% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Isaac Dye | G | Fr | 6'2" | 23-0 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 22.3% | |
| 3 | Tylan Lewis | G | Fr | 6'0" | 24-0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 14.1% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Carrillo | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 15.6% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Missouri St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Kobi Williams | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 35.4 | 14.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 53.1% | 37.2% | 7.1 | 84.2% | 23.3% | |
| 1 | Trey Williams Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 30.6 | 9.4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 50.6% | 36.8% | 5.0 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 13 | Zaxton King | G | So | 6'3" | 34-18 | 27.0 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 51.0% | 31.4% | 3.5 | 75.8% | 16.3% | |
| 23 | Michael Osei-Bonsu | F | Sr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 27.4 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 59.0% | — | 0.0 | 53.2% | 34.0% | |
| 10 | Darrion Sutton | F | So | 6'9" | 34-0 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 55.2% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 58.8% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Antwan Burnett | G | Sr | 6'5" | 19-11 | 23.9 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 52.0% | 37.5% | 2.1 | 52.4% | 13.6% | |
| 5 | Melakih Cunningham | G | Fr | 6'7" | 21-6 | 11.8 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 29.6% | 1.3 | 73.3% | 17.2% | |
| 20 | Cameron Boone | F | Jr | 6'10" | 29-3 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 56.3% | 10.2% | |
| 6 | Logan Epes | G | Sr | 6'3" | 21-0 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 44.0% | 15.4% | 0.6 | 41.7% | 10.6% | |
| 2 | Tyrique Brooks | G | So | 6'4" | 23-0 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 63.6% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Amar Kuljuhovic | G | Sr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 71.4% | 26.7% | |
| 31 | Ryder Cheesman | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | — | 26.1% | |
| 3 | Collin Clark | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Abilene Chrstn2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rich Smith | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 29.5 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 51.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 63.8% | 22.6% | |
| 15 | Bradyn Hubbard | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-29 | 28.1 | 16.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 45.5% | 31.3% | 4.5 | 79.9% | 37.0% | |
| 23 | Joseph Venzant | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-23 | 25.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.3% | 41.4% | 0.9 | 77.3% | 10.4% | |
| 5 | Cbo Newton | G | So | 6'3" | 30-24 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52.5% | 30.6% | 3.3 | 69.0% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Yaniel Rivera | G | Jr | 6'3" | 29-21 | 24.4 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 49.2% | 36.7% | 4.4 | 69.0% | 20.5% | |
| 0 | Zy Wright | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-6 | 17.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 51.7% | 30.8% | 2.0 | 85.0% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Cade Hornecker | F | Jr | 7'0" | 33-19 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 46.6% | 15.0% | 0.6 | 69.8% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joseph Scott | F | Jr | 6'9" | 28-7 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 51.3% | 24.4% | |
| 7 | Christian Alston | G | So | 6'7" | 30-0 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 38.1% | 22.2% | 1.5 | 69.4% | 31.6% | |
| 11 | Ma'Shy Hill | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-7 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 61.9% | — | 0.0 | 39.3% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Isaac Dye | G | Fr | 6'2" | 23-0 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 22.3% | |
| 3 | Tylan Lewis | G | Fr | 6'0" | 24-0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 14.1% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Carrillo | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 15.6% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Abilene Chrstn
Against the spread
Season
13-17
Home
4-7
Road
7-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-13-1
Home
6-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +6.5
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Utah Tech | N | L 74–80 | +1.5 | L−4.5 | 141.5 | O154 | 105.1 | 113.6 | 70.4 |
| Mar 11 | Tarleton St | N | W 84–78 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 135.0 | O162 | 109.8 | 102.0 | 76.5 |
| Mar 7 | UT Arlington | H | L 57–64 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 133.0 | U121 | 87.1 | 97.8 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | CA Baptist | A | L 48–87 | +10.0 | L−29.0 | 137.0 | U135 | 66.2 | 120.1 | 72.5 |
| Feb 28 | Utah Valley | A | L 67–74 | +15.0 | W+8.0 | 140.5 | O141 | 96.6 | 106.7 | 69.3 |
| Feb 26 | Utah Tech | A | L 81–85 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | O166 | 115.9 | 121.7 | 69.9 |
| Feb 21 | Southern Utah | H | W 87–83 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 143.5 | O170 | 115.9 | 110.6 | 75.1 |
| Feb 16 | Tarleton St | A | L 62–65 OT | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 81.8 | 85.8 | 75.8 |
| Feb 14 | Tarleton St | H | W 73–59 | −3.0 | W+11.0 | 135.5 | U132 | 104.1 | 84.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 12 | UT Arlington | H | W 67–63 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 135.0 | U130 | 99.7 | 93.7 | 67.2 |
Missouri St
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
7-8
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −1.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-12-1
Home
9-6
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg vs total +3.1
Over in 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Louisiana Tech | N | L 66–69 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 135.0 | P135 | 116.1 | 121.4 | 56.8 |
| Mar 11 | Liberty | N | W 77–69 | +5.0 | W+13.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 120.6 | 108.0 | 63.9 |
| Mar 10 | FIU | N | W 75–72 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 115.1 | 110.5 | 65.1 |
| Mar 7 | MTSU | H | L 63–75 | −2.5 | L−14.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 95.0 | 113.1 | 66.3 |
| Mar 5 | Western KY | H | W 87–74 | +1.0 | W+14.0 | 152.5 | O161 | 130.9 | 111.3 | 66.5 |
| Feb 28 | Sam Houston | A | L 81–86 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 154.5 | O167 | 119.8 | 127.1 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 70–72 | +2.5 | W+0.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 105.4 | 108.4 | 66.4 |
| Feb 21 | FIU | A | L 67–70 | +3.5 | W+0.5 | 155.0 | U137 | 99.7 | 104.2 | 67.2 |
| Feb 18 | Kennesaw St | H | L 87–91 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 152.5 | O178 | 120.3 | 125.8 | 72.3 |
| Feb 14 | Delaware | H | L 67–76 | −8.5 | L−17.5 | 135.0 | O143 | 106.7 | 121.0 | 62.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAbilene ChrstnMissouri St
Efficiency
102.6
108.5
107.7
110.2
68.4
66.9
—
—
Shooting
47.5%
51.1%
48.0%
52.2%
31.0%
33.0%
70.4%
67.3%
41.7%
43.8%
Ball control & glass
20.8%
16.7%
23.4%
16.9%
31.0%
32.0%
29.1%
32.1%
12.3%
9.6%
12.6%
13.6%
Style
32.8%
41.3%
44.0%
41.1%
16.5%
10.4%
54.1%
56.6%
37.1%
25.0%
Roster
3.22
2.54
6'4.5"
6'4.5"
—
83.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAbilene Chrstn
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Missouri St
Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 80.2%
Lost
- Keith Palek III 32.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Collin Clark no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.