CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA

Long Beach St

Efficiency #267

2025-26: 10-22 · 6-14 conf

UCLA

Efficiency #37

2025-26: 24-12 · 15-8 conf

Mon, Nov 16 · TBD

66.1

win 10%

Projected

81.3

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: UCLA −15.1 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UCLA 66.6, Long Beach St 69.1 → 67.4 possessions

−2.0

UCLA offense vs Long Beach St defense

+6.2

Long Beach St offense vs UCLA defense

−5.0

Projected total

147.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UCLA offense vs Long Beach St defense

+6.2

Long Beach St offense vs UCLA defense

+5.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UCLA by 15.1

15.1

Long Beach St side ◂▸ UCLA side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UCLA.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Long Beach St is the faster team (70.8, #60 of 365) and UCLA the slower (65.8, #303). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.4

model

Projected team totals

66.1 / 81.3

Long Beach St / UCLA

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#118

Long Beach St

66.6#313

UCLA

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageUCLA

Where UCLA scores: shooting

UCLA shoots an effective 53.4% (#85); Long Beach St allows 53.7% (#290). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

UCLA averages 65.8 possessions per 40, Long Beach St 70.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageLong Beach St

Where Long Beach St struggles: ball control

Long Beach St turns it over on 18.0% of possessions (#270); UCLA forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#76). Expect about 18.5%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UCLA) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Long Beach St at about 39.1% of its shots from three, UCLA about 33.6%.

TurnoversUCLA

UCLA protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for UCLA's offense.

ClashUCLA

Style match: 3-point volume

UCLA rarely shoots threes (35.5% of its shots); Long Beach St runs teams off the line (35.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.6% — both habits push the same way.

Long Beach St has the ball

OffenseUCLA allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #207

50.4% #120

-1.2 pt/100

18.0% #270

18.5% #76

-2.2 pt/100

26.2% #315

33.3% #304

-0.9 pt/100

30.7% #287

34.4% #163

-0.3 pt/100

72.5% #185

—

+0.0 pt/100

Long Beach St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

UCLA has the ball

OffenseLong Beach St allowsvs D1 avg

53.4% #85

53.7% #290

+3.5 pt/100

13.4% #14

17.5% #120

+1.8 pt/100

31.0% #162

27.8% #60

-0.5 pt/100

33.1% #237

42.3% #327

+0.4 pt/100

76.3% #46

—

+0.3 pt/100

UCLA net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Long Beach Stoffense vsUCLAdefense

Share of shots by zone

Long Beach St shoots

33.1

8.7

23.2

35.1

UCLA allows

32.0

5.0

17.7

45.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.6%#27	61.6%#289	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.7%#201	39.6%#179	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.4%#209	39.6%#223	38.0%
Three	32.7%#245	32.0%#64	33.7%

UCLAoffense vsLong Beach Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UCLA shoots

31.4

5.8

27.4

35.5

Long Beach St allows

42.3

6.9

15.6

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.3%#67	63.4%#334	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.2%#116	40.0%#191	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#59	39.7%#230	38.0%
Three	37.9%#19	34.4%#212	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Long Beach St

−3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#318 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#315

Def reb %

72.2%

#60

Turnover %

18.0%

#270

Forced TO %

17.5%

#120

FT rate

30.7%

#287

FT allowed

42.3%

#327

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

UCLA

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#75 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#162

Def reb %

66.7%

#304

Turnover %

13.4%

#14

Forced TO %

18.5%

#76

FT rate

33.1%

#237

FT allowed

34.4%

#163

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+0.2

UCLA has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#75 of 365) to Long Beach St’s −3.6 (#318).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Long Beach St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	Petar Majstorovic	F	So	6'8"	32-32	31.1	14.4	6.4	1.8	2.2	56.7%	28.6%	3.1	77.5%	25.7%
11	Gavin Sykes	G	Fr	6'4"	28-26	32.9	19.4	3.0	1.5	1.2	55.6%	38.7%	6.0	79.5%	29.9%
12	Isaiah Lewis	G	Jr	6'3"	32-13	22.1	6.0	1.9	2.3	1.6	42.2%	31.8%	2.1	76.9%	20.5%
0	Rob Diaz III	G	Jr	6'2"	32-14	21.9	8.1	3.6	2.6	1.0	50.0%	32.9%	2.2	80.7%	21.8%
2	Shaquil Bender	G	Sr	6'2"	31-9	21.8	10.8	1.8	1.4	2.0	49.5%	36.6%	4.3	75.0%	31.8%
4	Leopold Levillain	F	Fr	6'9"	30-24	19.3	4.8	5.0	1.0	1.5	57.0%	—	0.0	61.9%	16.0%
33	Shay Johnson Jr.	F	Sr	6'10"	31-8	16.0	2.4	1.9	0.7	0.6	70.8%	0.0%	0.0	41.7%	8.4%
3	Dallas Washington	F	Fr	6'10"	23-1	11.0	2.8	1.5	0.5	0.7	36.6%	18.2%	1.4	44.4%	21.9%
24	Christian Jones	G	So	6'4"	18-1	10.3	3.4	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.0%	35.5%	1.7	77.8%	18.8%
1	Derrick Michael Xzavierro	F	Jr	6'10"	18-0	8.2	2.2	2.7	0.3	0.9	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	70.0%	19.9%
15	JJ Chaikovsky	F	So	6'7"	19-0	7.4	0.8	1.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.5%
14	Immanuel Lewis	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	7.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	1.0	50.0%	22.1%
8	Grant Gondrezick II	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Jayden Alexander	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UCLA2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Donovan Dent	G	Sr	6'2"	35-34	34.4	13.3	2.9	7.6	1.8	43.0%	25.4%	2.0	65.6%	28.4%
0	Trent Perry	G	So	6'4"	35-24	29.9	12.6	3.0	2.8	1.3	51.5%	39.2%	3.4	85.8%	24.5%
3	Eric Dailey Jr.	G	Jr	6'8"	35-35	27.6	11.6	5.8	1.3	1.3	53.4%	31.6%	2.8	69.9%	25.9%
55	Skyy Clark	G	Sr	6'3"	26-23	28.6	11.5	2.3	2.0	1.0	58.6%	42.7%	4.8	82.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Booker	F	Jr	6'11"	36-27	20.2	7.3	3.5	0.8	0.6	62.4%	43.3%	1.9	67.5%	19.5%
4	Jamar Brown	G	Sr	6'5"	36-2	15.6	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.3	54.0%	33.8%	2.1	100.0%	14.0%
5	Brandon Williams	G	So	6'7"	34-4	12.2	2.6	1.9	0.3	0.2	45.5%	24.0%	0.7	64.5%	14.5%
24	Steven Jamerson II	F	Sr	6'10"	33-1	10.2	2.0	2.1	0.5	0.6	75.0%	—	0.0	63.0%	12.0%
8	Eric Freeny	G	Fr	6'4"	28-0	11.0	2.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	46.4%	37.0%	1.0	50.0%	13.7%
23	Anthony Peoples Jr.	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	2.2	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	10.9%
30	Jack Seidler	G	Jr	6'4"	6-0	1.5	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.2	16.7%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	48.9%
7	Christian Horry	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	16.4%
21	Evan Manjikian	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Markell Alston	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Long Beach St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	Petar Majstorovic	F	So	6'8"	32-32	31.1	14.4	6.4	1.8	2.2	56.7%	28.6%	3.1	77.5%	25.7%
11	Gavin Sykes	G	Fr	6'4"	28-26	32.9	19.4	3.0	1.5	1.2	55.6%	38.7%	6.0	79.5%	29.9%
12	Isaiah Lewis	G	Jr	6'3"	32-13	22.1	6.0	1.9	2.3	1.6	42.2%	31.8%	2.1	76.9%	20.5%
0	Rob Diaz III	G	Jr	6'2"	32-14	21.9	8.1	3.6	2.6	1.0	50.0%	32.9%	2.2	80.7%	21.8%
2	Shaquil Bender	G	Sr	6'2"	31-9	21.8	10.8	1.8	1.4	2.0	49.5%	36.6%	4.3	75.0%	31.8%
4	Leopold Levillain	F	Fr	6'9"	30-24	19.3	4.8	5.0	1.0	1.5	57.0%	—	0.0	61.9%	16.0%
33	Shay Johnson Jr.	F	Sr	6'10"	31-8	16.0	2.4	1.9	0.7	0.6	70.8%	0.0%	0.0	41.7%	8.4%
3	Dallas Washington	F	Fr	6'10"	23-1	11.0	2.8	1.5	0.5	0.7	36.6%	18.2%	1.4	44.4%	21.9%
24	Christian Jones	G	So	6'4"	18-1	10.3	3.4	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.0%	35.5%	1.7	77.8%	18.8%
1	Derrick Michael Xzavierro	F	Jr	6'10"	18-0	8.2	2.2	2.7	0.3	0.9	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	70.0%	19.9%
15	JJ Chaikovsky	F	So	6'7"	19-0	7.4	0.8	1.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.5%
14	Immanuel Lewis	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	7.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	1.0	50.0%	22.1%
8	Grant Gondrezick II	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Jayden Alexander	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Long Beach St

Against the spread

Season

15-14-1

Home

8-6

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-10-1

Home

9-4-1

Road

10-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +5.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	A	W 84–75	+14.0	W+23.0	150.0	O159	109.6	97.9	76.6
Mar 5	UC DavisAdjEM #185	H	L 70–76 OT	+2.0	L−4.0	150.0	U146	88.2	95.7	79.4
Feb 28	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	A	W 88–87	−3.0	L−2.0	153.5	O175	118.6	117.3	74.2
Feb 26	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	A	L 92–102	+5.5	L−4.5	161.5	O194	114.6	127.1	80.3
Feb 21	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 76–78	+3.5	W+1.5	157.5	U154	105.9	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	L 58–69	+5.0	L−6.0	143.0	U127	78.7	93.6	73.7
Feb 14	UC DavisAdjEM #185	A	L 54–71	+5.0	L−12.0	149.5	U125	76.6	100.8	70.5
Feb 12	FullertonAdjEM #205	H	L 82–86	−1.5	L−5.5	156.5	O168	110.5	115.9	74.2
Feb 5	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 74–77	+10.5	W+7.5	146.5	O151	99.1	103.2	74.6
Jan 31	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	L 82–89	+8.0	W+1.0	144.5	O171	113.7	123.4	72.1

UCLA

Against the spread

Season

15-19-2

Home

10-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +4.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

17-19

Home

9-9

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +3.6

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 57–73	+5.5	L−10.5	136.0	U130	90.5	115.9	63.0
Mar 20	#10UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 75–71	−6.0	L−2.0	152.0	U146	106.3	100.6	70.6
Mar 14	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 66–73	+7.0	P0.0	145.0	U139	110.7	122.4	59.6
Mar 13	#8Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	W 88–84	+5.0	W+9.0	141.5	O172	131.9	125.9	66.7
Mar 12	RutgersAdjEM #192	N	W 72–59	−10.5	W+2.5	142.5	U131	104.6	85.7	68.8
Mar 7	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 89–68	−5.0	W+16.0	151.0	O157	142.2	108.7	62.6
Mar 3	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	H	W 72–52	+1.0	W+21.0	144.5	U124	118.7	85.7	60.6
Feb 28	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 73–78	−1.5	L−6.5	135.5	O151	131.4	140.4	55.6
Feb 24	USCAdjEM #97	H	W 81–62	−7.0	W+12.0	150.5	U143	123.4	94.5	65.6
Feb 21	#10IllinoisAdjEM #4	H	W 95–94 OT	+6.0	W+7.0	147.0	O189	130.4	129.0	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Long Beach StUCLA

Efficiency

105.0

115.9

110.3

104.5

69.1

66.6

—

Shooting

50.6%

53.4%

51.5%

51.4%

32.7%

37.9%

72.5%

76.3%

30.7%

33.1%

Ball control & glass

18.0%

13.4%

17.5%

18.5%

26.2%

31.0%

27.8%

33.3%

9.5%

7.3%

7.2%

8.1%

Style

34.8%

35.5%

44.4%

38.2%

11.7%

46.2%

59.2%

35.9%

27.0%

Roster

2.37

3.12

6'5.6"

6'5.5"

89.8%

87.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Long Beach St

Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 93.5%

Lost

Cole Farrell 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Jayden Alexander no D1 minutes last season
Grant Gondrezick II no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UCLA

Returning minutes: 87.1%Returning production: 82.4%

Lost

Tyler Bilodeau 26.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Markell Alston no D1 minutes last season
Evan Manjikian no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.