CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSchottenstein Center, Columbus, OH

Prairie View

Efficiency #303

2025-26: 19-18 · 13-9 conf

Ohio State

Efficiency #31

2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf

Mon, Nov 16 · TBD

67.4

win 6%

Projected

85.3

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: OSU −18.0 · total 152.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Ohio State 67.5, Prairie View 70.5 → 69.6 possessions

+2.8

Ohio State offense vs Prairie View defense

+7.8

Prairie View offense vs Ohio State defense

−6.1

Projected total

152.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Ohio State offense vs Prairie View defense

+7.8

Prairie View offense vs Ohio State defense

+6.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Ohio State by 18.0

18.0

Prairie View side ◂▸ Ohio State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +17.9 against +18.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ohio State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Prairie View is the faster team (72.4, #16 of 365) and Ohio State the slower (66.4, #278). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.7

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 85.3

Prairie View / Ohio State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.5#28

Prairie View

67.5#253

Ohio State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantagePrairie View

Where Prairie View struggles: shooting

Prairie View shoots an effective 47.4% (#330); Ohio State allows 50.2% (#114). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageOhio State

Where Ohio State scores: shooting

Ohio State shoots an effective 56.2% (#19); Prairie View allows 50.9% (#149). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Ohio State averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Prairie View 72.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassPrairie View

Prairie View gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Prairie View's offense.

TurnoversPrairie View

Prairie View protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Prairie View's offense.

Prairie View has the ball

OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg

47.4% #330

50.2% #114

-3.9 pt/100

15.8% #124

15.6% #242

+1.6 pt/100

26.7% #305

30.0% #160

-1.7 pt/100

41.6% #35

34.7% #170

+0.4 pt/100

75.6% #63

—

+0.3 pt/100

Prairie View net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Ohio State has the ball

OffensePrairie View allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #19

50.9% #149

+3.8 pt/100

15.3% #91

19.0% #50

-0.7 pt/100

30.4% #185

35.4% #344

+1.5 pt/100

37.2% #122

42.6% #333

+0.7 pt/100

77.7% #21

—

+0.5 pt/100

Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie Viewoffense vsOhio Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Prairie View shoots

37.2

6.7

24.9

31.2

Ohio State allows

31.5

8.2

20.1

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.1%#296	59.8%#220	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#231	38.4%#143	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#230	42.7%#328	38.0%
Three	32.9%#237	31.9%#57	33.7%

Ohio Stateoffense vsPrairie Viewdefense

Share of shots by zone

Ohio State shoots

31.3

9.5

18.8

40.4

Prairie View allows

44.4

8.5

14.8

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.1%#14	58.2%#150	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#12	34.9%#56	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.6%#4	35.3%#83	38.0%
Three	35.7%#72	35.0%#247	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie View

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#211 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#305

Def reb %

64.6%

#344

Turnover %

15.8%

#124

Forced TO %

19.0%

#50

FT rate

41.6%

#35

FT allowed

42.6%

#333

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Ohio State

+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#185

Def reb %

70.0%

#160

Turnover %

15.3%

#91

Forced TO %

15.6%

#242

FT rate

37.2%

#122

FT allowed

34.7%

#170

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Ohio State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#132 of 365) to Prairie View’s −0.7 (#211).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Ohio State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Devin Royal	F	Jr	6'6"	32-32	32.5	13.7	5.7	1.6	1.7	52.5%	31.6%	3.1	80.2%	25.1%
0	John Mobley Jr.	G	So	6'1"	31-31	31.6	15.7	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.7%	41.1%	7.6	86.8%	28.2%
1	Amare Bynum	F	Fr	6'8"	34-24	28.5	9.7	4.9	1.1	1.1	56.1%	30.8%	2.7	72.6%	20.2%
4	Gabe Cupps	G	So	6'2"	33-0	12.2	1.7	1.1	1.1	0.6	45.6%	25.9%	0.8	73.7%	11.2%
3	Taison Chatman	G	So	6'4"	28-3	12.9	4.3	1.2	0.8	0.8	59.8%	47.1%	1.8	85.0%	19.8%
7	Ivan Njegovan	C	So	7'1"	30-2	11.4	2.6	3.0	0.7	0.6	58.8%	66.7%	0.1	65.5%	14.7%
14	Brandon Noel	F	Sr	6'8"	16-10	18.9	6.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	65.1%	20.0%	0.9	73.3%	18.3%
6	Puff Johnson	G	Sr	6'8"	9-1	11.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.4	41.7%	42.9%	0.8	66.7%	15.3%
9	Mathieu Grujicic	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.2	18.8%	14.3%	1.2	42.9%	20.7%
55	Braylen Nash	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
17	Josh Ojianwuna	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Myles Herro	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Prairie View

Against the spread

Season

22-11

Home

5-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +6.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18-1

Home

3-6

Road

9-6-1

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.9

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	L 55–114	+35.0	L−24.0	154.0	O169	79.4	164.5	69.3
Mar 18	#16LehighAdjEM #273	N	W 67–55	+3.0	W+15.0	142.5	U122	102.8	84.4	65.2
Mar 14	SouthernAdjEM #286	N	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	145.0	U138	109.3	100.2	65.9
Mar 13	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	N	W 74–55	+2.0	W+21.0	140.5	U129	117.2	87.1	63.1
Mar 11	BethuneAdjEM #260	N	W 71–67	+5.5	W+9.5	148.0	U138	108.0	101.9	65.8
Mar 10	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	N	W 65–56	−6.0	W+3.0	142.5	U121	97.7	84.2	66.5
Mar 5	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	W 70–59	+1.5	W+12.5	153.0	U129	104.4	88.0	67.0
Feb 28	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	H	W 72–51	−4.5	W+16.5	150.0	U123	102.3	72.5	70.4
Feb 26	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 85–76 OT	−4.5	W+4.5	161.5	U161	114.2	102.1	74.4
Feb 21	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	L 82–84	+3.5	W+1.5	158.0	O166	120.8	123.7	67.9

Ohio State

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +6.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

10-7

Road

4-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#9TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 64–66	−2.0	L−4.0	146.0	U130	102.5	105.7	62.4
Mar 13	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 67–71	+12.5	W+8.5	155.0	U138	100.0	106.0	67.0
Mar 12	IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 72–69	+1.5	W+4.5	140.5	O141	124.1	118.9	58.0
Mar 7	IndianaAdjEM #45	H	W 91–78	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	O169	134.0	114.8	67.9
Mar 4	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	W 94–62	−7.0	W+25.0	152.0	O156	145.1	95.7	64.8
Mar 1	#8PurdueAdjEM #9	H	W 82–74	+6.5	W+14.5	149.5	O156	133.4	120.4	61.5
Feb 25	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 57–74	+6.0	L−11.0	140.5	U131	97.4	126.4	58.5
Feb 22	#15Michigan StAdjEM #11	A	L 60–66	+10.0	W+4.0	147.0	U126	98.4	108.2	61.0
Feb 17	#24WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 86–69	−1.0	W+16.0	157.5	U155	125.0	100.3	68.8
Feb 14	#15VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	147.0	U136	100.4	106.5	65.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Prairie ViewOhio State

Efficiency

103.2

117.4

110.8

104.9

70.5

67.5

—

Shooting

47.4%

56.2%

46.5%

58.0%

32.9%

35.7%

75.6%

77.7%

41.6%

37.2%

Ball control & glass

15.8%

15.3%

19.0%

15.6%

26.7%

30.4%

35.4%

30.0%

8.8%

8.1%

8.2%

8.9%

Style

30.6%

40.1%

41.8%

43.4%

17.7%

8.5%

43.2%

52.6%

24.1%

23.7%

Roster

3.78

2.19

6'4.6"

6'5.5"

—

66.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Prairie View

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Ohio State

Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%

Lost

Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron

Added

Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.