Tarleton State Texans vs Drake Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:30 PM ET · Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA

Non-conferenceESPN+Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA
Tarleton St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #224
@
Drake
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #195
Mon, Nov 16 · 7:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Drake is the faster team (71.1, #170 of 365) and Tarleton St the slower (70.7, #185). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.5#121
Tarleton St
70.2#214
Drake

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Drake has the ball+4.0
Tarleton St has the ball+2.4
Drake has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · TAR allows 45.0% #342+3.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.5% #302 · TAR forces 17.6% #192 · ~14 turnovers−1.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 59.6% #16 · TAR allows 60.0% #340 · FT 61.3% #299+1.6
✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.8% #128 · TAR allows 47.7% #123+0.7
Tarleton St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.5% #26 · DRKE allows 55.6% #269+9.3
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.6% #306 · DRKE forces 29.6% #4 · ~20 turnovers−8.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 75.0% #1 · DRKE allows 53.3% #321 · FT 66.7% #229+2.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · DRKE allows 25.9% #79−0.6

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Tarleton Stoffense vsDrakedefense
Share of shots by zone
Tarleton St shoots
Drake allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim69.6%#5766.7%#27458.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)—0.0%#138.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)25.0%#24550.0%#28534.7%
Three40.0%#5642.9%#32432.5%
Drakeoffense vsTarleton Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Drake shoots
Tarleton St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim72.2%#3533.3%#358.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)20.0%#27575.0%#33638.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.3%#1740.0%#134.7%
Three32.0%#18142.9%#32432.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Tarleton St
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#226 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
55.0%
#342
Turnover %
22.6%
#306
Forced TO %
17.6%
#192
FT rate
75.0%
#1
FT allowed
60.0%
#340
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−4.5
Ball security−3.1
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+9.8
Foul shots allowed−5.7
Drake
+9.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#59 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
74.1%
#79
Turnover %
22.5%
#302
Forced TO %
29.6%
#4
FT rate
59.6%
#16
FT allowed
53.3%
#321
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.9
Ball security−3.0
Forcing turnovers+8.2
Foul shots drawn+5.8
Foul shots allowed−4.0

Drake has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.4 (#59 of 365) to Tarleton St’s −3.2 (#226).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Tarleton St2026-27 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4GSo6'2"2-234.516.08.03.51.557.1%36.4%5.561.5%24.2%Active
3GSr6'7"2-233.016.56.52.52.061.1%0.0%2.055.0%26.4%Active
2GSr6'5"2-230.013.01.05.54.058.8%66.7%3.075.0%26.7%Active
13GSr6'0"2-222.56.02.01.51.575.0%57.1%3.5—13.5%Active
11FSr6'9"2-220.511.03.50.52.080.0%50.0%2.0100.0%22.7%Active
7GSr6'7"2-018.55.53.50.00.050.0%0.0%1.0100.0%15.6%Active
8GSo6'5"2-017.58.51.51.51.542.5%14.3%3.5—35.9%Active
0GJr6'4"1-032.02.08.05.01.00.0%0.0%1.050.0%12.2%Active
35FSo6'8"2-011.07.53.00.00.5100.0%—0.083.3%22.0%Active
44FSr6'9"1-09.06.01.01.01.075.0%0.0%1.0—31.4%Active
6GFr6'5"1-06.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%Missed last
15FSr6'10"1-03.00.01.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%Missed last

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Tarleton StDrake
Efficiency
103.8
105.4
107.6
107.7
71.5
70.2
-4.9
-10.4
Shooting
61.5%
53.8%
63.0%
59.3%
40.0%
32.0%
66.7%
61.3%
75.0%
59.6%
Ball control & glass
22.6%
22.5%
17.6%
29.6%
33.3%
33.3%
45.0%
25.9%
7.5%
14.1%
7.4%
11.1%
Style
48.1%
48.1%
35.6%
40.0%
10.0%
10.7%
63.0%
62.5%
33.9%
36.3%
Roster
3.29
2.89
6'5.1"
6'3.9"
16.2%
45.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Tarleton St
Returning minutes: 16.4%Returning production: 13.6%
Lost
  • Jordan Mizell 27.6 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Texas A&M-CC
  • Kaia Isaac 25.3 mpg, 5.6 ppg · transferred to Portland
  • Freddy Hicks 22.0 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dior Johnson 16.4 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to UCF
  • Ocypher Owens 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cam McDowell 15.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Caleb Blackwell from UTEP · 27.5 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Isaac Harrell from Elon · 25.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
  • Franck Emmou from Texas St · 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
  • TJ Cope from LSU N Orleans · 20.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg last season
  • JaVar Daniel from West Georgia · 18.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
  • Josh Hayes from Utah · 13.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Drake
Returning minutes: 45.6%Returning production: 39.9%
Lost
  • Jalen Quinn 33.6 mpg, 19.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Okku Federiko 23.3 mpg, 8.6 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
  • Jaehshon Thomas 20.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Isaiah Carr 11.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Braden Appelhans 10.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · transferred to Xavier
  • Wilguens Jr. Exacte 10.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
  • Gabe Oldham from Denver · 25.6 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
  • Jon Carroll from Morehead St · 24.6 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
  • Dre Kindell from Wichita St · 17.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
  • Bryson Bahl no D1 minutes last season
  • LJ Rush no D1 minutes last season
  • Miles Flemons no D1 minutes last season

Returns 46% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 16

← Sun, Nov 15 · Tue, Nov 17 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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