Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM ET · Reynolds Center, Tulsa, OK

Non-conferenceESPNUReynolds Center, Tulsa, OK

Western KY

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #131

Tulsa

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #57

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Western KY is the faster team (76.4, #50 of 365) and Tulsa the slower (68.1, #265). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

73.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

73.9#37

Western KY

70.5#192

Tulsa

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Tulsa has the ball+11.1

Western KY has the ball+5.8

Tulsa has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.4% #27 · WKU allows 51.7% #201+7.5

✓Gets to the lineFTR 59.6% #15 · WKU allows 44.0% #259 · FT 70.6% #165+1.4

✓Wins second chancesOR% 38.9% #56 · WKU allows 26.4% #92+1.2

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.7% #79 · WKU forces 19.6% #118 · ~13 turnovers+1.0

Western KY has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.7% #57 · TLSA forces 8.8% #354 · ~7 turnovers+7.8

✗Few second chancesOR% 32.1% #171 · TLSA allows 12.5% #2−4.0

✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.4% #175 · TLSA allows 52.7% #216+1.3

✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.2% #78 · TLSA allows 33.9% #150 · FT 76.7% #78+0.7

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Western KYoffense vsTulsadefense

Share of shots by zone

Western KY shoots

54.7

7.5

11.3

26.4

Tulsa allows

33.3

2.8

11.1

52.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	58.3%#180	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#165	0.0%#1	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	0.0%#1	34.7%
Three	34.2%#143	37.9%#291	32.5%

Tulsaoffense vsWestern KYdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tulsa shoots

30.6

2.8

5.6

61.1

Western KY allows

28.6

1.0

11.2

59.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.6%#113	46.4%#48	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	100.0%#1	0.0%#1	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	100.0%#1	45.5%#265	34.7%
Three	41.2%#50	38.2%#292	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Western KY

+6.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#85 of 365

Off reb %

32.1%

#171

Def reb %

73.6%

#92

Turnover %

13.7%

#57

Forced TO %

19.6%

#118

FT rate

46.2%

#78

FT allowed

44.0%

#259

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security+3.2

Forcing turnovers+1.1

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Tulsa

+11.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365

Off reb %

38.9%

#56

Def reb %

87.5%

Turnover %

14.7%

#79

Forced TO %

8.8%

#354

FT rate

59.6%

#15

FT allowed

33.9%

#150

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.4

Defensive rebounding+6.4

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−6.6

Foul shots drawn+5.8

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Tulsa has more extra scoring chances per game: +11.6 (#38 of 365) to Western KY’s +6.9 (#85).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Western KY2026-27 numbers · last game: Tennessee Tech, Nov 8

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	G	So	6'5"	3-3	28.3	31	—	Started last	10.7	6.3	3.7	2.0	48.4%	40.0%	1.7	25.0%	25.3%
3	G	Jr	6'0"	3-2	26.7	29	—	Started last	8.3	2.3	5.3	0.3	44.2%	38.5%	4.3	66.7%	18.7%
30	G	Jr	6'6"	3-3	23.7	29	—	Started last	21.7	5.7	1.7	2.7	52.1%	30.0%	3.3	84.2%	47.0%
2	G	Sr	6'3"	3-1	20.7	22	—	Bench	8.7	2.3	1.3	1.3	25.0%	20.0%	1.7	94.4%	25.9%
6	F	So	6'8"	3-3	20.0	18	—	Started last	5.0	4.3	0.0	0.7	37.5%	28.6%	2.3	60.0%	18.1%
23	G	Sr	6'5"	3-0	18.3	20	—	Bench	3.3	3.3	0.0	0.7	21.4%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	17.1%
13	F	Sr	6'9"	3-3	16.7	18	—	Started last	6.0	2.3	1.7	0.7	54.2%	50.0%	0.7	83.3%	17.8%
32	F	So	6'10"	3-0	16.3	17	—	Bench	7.3	5.0	0.3	0.0	76.9%	—	0.0	40.0%	16.6%
11	F	Fr	6'7"	3-0	15.3	13	—	Bench	11.3	2.0	0.7	0.7	72.5%	45.5%	3.7	83.3%	28.8%
24	G	Fr	6'6"	3-0	5.7	5	—	Bench	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	6.2%
35	F	Fr	6'10"	2-0	6.0	—	—	Missed last	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	14.1%
5	G	So	6'2"	1-0	10.0	0	—	Missed last game	3.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	25.0%	16.7%	6.0	—	39.9%
1	G	Fr	5'11"	1-0	1.0	—	—	Missed last	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Western KY

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +7.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	Tennessee TechAdjEM #265	A	L 94–97	−3.0	L−6.0	164.0	O191	111.3	114.9	84.5
Nov 5	Kentucky Wesleyan Panthers	H	W 82–48	—	—	—	—	116.5	68.2	70.4
Nov 2	Morehead StAdjEM #336	H	W 83–58	−17.5	W+7.5	153.0	U141	121.3	84.8	68.4
Mar 12	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	N	L 87–96	−1.0	L−10.0	159.5	O183	113.0	124.6	77.0
Mar 7	FIUAdjEM #191	A	L 67–92	−1.0	L−26.0	160.0	U159	91.5	125.7	73.2
Mar 5	Missouri StAdjEM #188	A	L 74–87	−1.0	L−14.0	152.5	O161	111.3	130.9	66.5
Feb 28	UTEPAdjEM #243	H	W 97–65	−9.0	W+23.0	146.5	O162	134.7	90.2	72.0
Feb 26	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	H	W 93–70	−5.5	W+17.5	151.5	O163	117.8	88.7	78.9
Feb 21	LibertyAdjEM #145	A	W 94–73	+7.5	W+28.5	149.0	O167	135.5	105.3	69.3
Feb 18	DelawareAdjEM #258	A	W 88–87 OT	−4.0	L−3.0	139.5	O175	126.7	125.3	69.4

Tulsa

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +4.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +14.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 5	N IllinoisAdjEM #287	H	W 94–75	−14.5	W+4.5	154.5	O169	138.1	110.2	68.1
Nov 2	Ottawa (KS) Braves	H	W 98–50	—	—	—	—	140.3	71.6	69.9
Apr 5	AuburnAdjEM #33	N	L 86–92 OT	+5.5	L−0.5	159.5	O178	105.2	112.5	81.8
Apr 2	New MexicoAdjEM #32	N	W 74–69	−3.0	W+2.0	162.5	U143	104.2	97.1	71.0
Mar 24	Wichita StAdjEM #95	H	W 83–79	−4.5	L−0.5	154.0	O162	110.6	105.2	75.1
Mar 22	UNLVAdjEM #129	H	W 77–66	−5.0	W+6.0	161.5	U143	117.0	100.3	65.8
Mar 17	SF AustinAdjEM #96	H	W 89–84 OT	−6.5	L−1.5	150.5	O173	113.3	107.0	78.5
Mar 14	Wichita StAdjEM #95	N	L 68–81	−1.5	L−14.5	152.0	U149	104.9	124.9	64.8
Mar 13	North TexasAdjEM #122	N	W 90–84 3OT	−8.5	L−2.5	142.0	O174	98.7	92.1	91.2
Mar 8	TempleAdjEM #217	H	W 78–76	−11.5	L−9.5	150.5	O154	116.6	113.6	66.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Western KYTulsa

Efficiency

106.6

116.5

104.3

105.7

73.9

70.5

-9.7

-8.1

Shooting

50.4%

61.4%

50.0%

60.9%

34.2%

41.2%

76.7%

70.6%

46.2%

59.6%

Ball control & glass

13.7%

14.7%

19.6%

8.8%

32.1%

38.9%

26.4%

12.5%

5.2%

5.9%

8.7%

13.0%

Style

29.2%

59.6%

45.2%

27.7%

16.9%

10.6%

47.5%

39.3%

42.3%

47.3%

Roster

2.68

3.08

6'5.5"

6'6.2"

34.0%

15.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Western KY

Returning minutes: 38.0%Returning production: 44.4%

Lost

Grant Newell 25.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ryan Myers 22.5 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Terrion Murdix 17.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Blaise Keita 12.5 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cam Haffner 11.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Oral Roberts
Leeroy Odiahi 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Noah Norgaard from UNC Greensboro · 25.1 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Emondrek Erkins-Ford from Jax State · 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
Sharron Young from Akron · 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
EJ Walker from South Carolina · 10.9 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
Joseph Adebayo no D1 minutes last season
Moussa Konare no D1 minutes last season

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Tulsa

Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 15.2%

Lost

Miles Barnstable 30.3 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ade Popoola 28.7 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to DePaul
Tylen Riley 27.7 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
David Green 25.6 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyler Behrend 21.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
Romad Dean 16.0 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Macon Emory from Delaware · 37.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
Kobi Williams from Missouri St · 34.4 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
Jeremiah Johnson from Campbell · 32.4 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
Brent Moss from UTSA · 25.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Chris Loofe from MTSU · 24.9 mpg, 7.3 ppg last season
Mike Williams III from Seton Hall · 20.9 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Dec 19	2025-26	Tulsa 82 – 81 Western KY

More games on Mon, Nov 16

Alcorn St at Maryland · 6:00 PM ET
Iona at UMBC · 6:00 PM ET
Prairie View at Ohio State · 6:30 PM ET
Jacksonville at Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
The Citadel at Clemson · 7:00 PM ET
St Thomas at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
Grambling at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
E Kentucky at Kent State · 7:00 PM ET
Tarleton St at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Montana at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Minnesota · 8:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at Oklahoma St · 8:00 PM ET
Abilene Chrstn at Missouri St · 8:00 PM ET
Columbia at Northwestern · 8:00 PM ET
SIUE at North Dakota · 8:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Texas A&M · 8:30 PM ET
East Texas A&M at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
Portland St at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
Texas Southern at UC San Diego · 10:00 PM ET
Long Beach St at UCLA · 10:00 PM ET

← Sun, Nov 15 · Tue, Nov 17 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.