CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
W Illinois
Efficiency #362
2025-26: 5-26 · 1-19 conf
@
Minnesota
Efficiency #94
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-13 conf
Mon, Nov 16 · TBD
59.7
win 6%
Projected
77.6
win 94%
No line posted yet.
Model: MINN −18.0 · total 137.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Minnesota 65.1, W Illinois 67.7 → 64.5 possessions
−8.2
Minnesota offense vs W Illinois defense
+5.8
W Illinois offense vs Minnesota defense
−8.5
Projected total
137.3
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Minnesota offense vs W Illinois defense
+5.8
W Illinois offense vs Minnesota defense
+8.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Minnesota by 18.0
18.0
W Illinois side ◂▸ Minnesota side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Minnesota.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 64.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Illinois is the faster team (67.3, #230 of 365) and Minnesota the slower (62.9, #364). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
64.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.3
model
Projected team totals
59.7 / 77.6
W Illinois / Minnesota
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#231
W Illinois
65.1#362
Minnesota
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageW Illinois
Where W Illinois struggles: shooting
W Illinois shoots an effective 44.5% (#361); Minnesota allows 51.9% (#207). Expect about 47.7%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Minnesota averages 62.9 possessions per 40, W Illinois 67.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMinnesota
Where Minnesota scores: shooting
Minnesota shoots an effective 53.9% (#69); W Illinois allows 54.2% (#303). Expect about 54.2%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (W Illinois) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Illinois at about 35.8% of its shots from three, Minnesota about 42.5%.
GlassW Illinois
W Illinois gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against W Illinois's offense.
TurnoversMinnesota
Minnesota protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Minnesota's offense.
W Illinois has the ball
OffenseMinnesota allowsvs D1 avg
44.5% #361
51.9% #207
-5.1 pt/100
17.5% #236
16.9% #162
-0.6 pt/100
27.0% #293
29.5% #137
-1.7 pt/100
37.7% #108
26.9% #21
-0.4 pt/100
66.2% #351
—
-0.5 pt/100
W Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.4 pts/100
Minnesota has the ball
OffenseW Illinois allowsvs D1 avg
53.9% #69
54.2% #303
+4.2 pt/100
16.5% #167
14.9% #297
+1.6 pt/100
26.8% #304
34.8% #334
-0.2 pt/100
35.8% #159
34.8% #173
+0.0 pt/100
69.4% #286
—
-0.3 pt/100
Minnesota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersW Illinoisoffense vsMinnesotadefense
Share of shots by zone
W Illinois shoots
39.5
9.2
18.3
33.0
Minnesota allows
32.6
6.5
19.6
41.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.3%#353 | 60.9%#268 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 29.0%#352 | 48.6%#345 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#293 | 37.6%#150 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.9%#322 | 34.7%#229 | 33.7% |
Minnesotaoffense vsW Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Minnesota shoots
34.7
4.9
12.5
47.9
W Illinois allows
44.5
7.7
13.7
34.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.5%#45 | 62.3%#306 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.7%#69 | 40.5%#200 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.5%#202 | 33.7%#44 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#164 | 35.6%#288 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersW Illinois
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#311 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#293
Def reb %
65.2%
#334
Turnover %
17.5%
#236
Forced TO %
14.9%
#297
FT rate
37.7%
#108
FT allowed
34.8%
#173
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Minnesota
+1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#111 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#304
Def reb %
70.5%
#137
Turnover %
16.5%
#167
Forced TO %
16.9%
#162
FT rate
35.8%
#159
FT allowed
26.9%
#21
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Minnesota has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.8 (#111 of 365) to W Illinois’s −3.4 (#311).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
W Illinois2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lucas Lorenzen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-30 | 32.9 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 48.0% | 31.5% | 6.9 | 80.2% | 28.5% | |
| 12 | Isaiah Griffin | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-20 | 28.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 42.0% | 33.0% | 2.8 | 72.0% | 26.6% | |
| 13 | Makai Kvamme | G | Fr | 6'2" | 31-24 | 25.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 37.0% | 17.2% | 0.9 | 48.0% | 18.1% | |
| 15 | Francis Okwuosah | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-19 | 22.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 53.0% | 37.8% | 3.8 | 70.8% | 20.8% | |
| 45 | Antwaun Massey | F | Sr | 6'8" | 26-23 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 49.7% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 48.2% | 26.0% | |
| 22 | Goanar Biliew | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-18 | 17.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 44.6% | 38.9% | 0.6 | 56.5% | 17.7% | |
| 5 | Karyiek Dixon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 20-14 | 25.3 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.3% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 72.0% | 19.3% | |
| 0 | Tyran Cook | G | So | 6'2" | 27-5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Danny Stephens | G | Fr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 17.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 42.8% | 26.8% | 2.7 | 73.9% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Marcus Pigram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 40.2% | 27.3% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 21.9% | |
| 11 | Ifiok Peter | F | So | 6'6" | 23-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 52.8% | 24.3% | |
| 50 | Nick Hittle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 18-1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 39.5% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 68.8% | 18.7% | |
| 14 | Steven Tipton | G | Sr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 22.5% | |
| 10 | Jake Edwards | G | Fr | 6'5" | 11-0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 5.0% | |
| 1 | Jack Riley | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Minnesota2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cade Tyson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 36.7 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 59.3% | 41.3% | 5.4 | 82.2% | 29.1% | |
| 1 | Isaac Asuma | G | So | 6'3" | 33-33 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 48.9% | 30.4% | 5.8 | 74.2% | 23.8% | |
| 6 | Langston Reynolds | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-26 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 55.9% | 25.6% | 1.3 | 59.2% | 24.5% | |
| 3 | Bobby Durkin | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-25 | 32.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 58.8% | 39.2% | 6.2 | 87.5% | 17.9% | |
| 5 | Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 24-24 | 31.5 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 32.3% | 5.4 | 71.8% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | Grayson Grove | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-12 | 20.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 62.0% | 26.3% | 0.6 | 25.0% | 12.6% | |
| 9 | Kai Shinholster | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-0 | 13.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 37.5% | 22.5% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 13.1% | |
| 0 | Chansey Willis Jr. | G | Jr | 6'2" | 7-7 | 26.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 43.6% | 18.2% | 1.6 | 45.5% | 21.6% | |
| 22 | Robert Vaihola | F | Sr | 6'8" | 5-5 | 21.4 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 70.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 14.6% | |
| 4 | Nehemiah Turner | F | So | 6'10" | 7-1 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 18.8% | |
| 11 | Maximus Gizzi | G | Sr | 6'1" | 10-0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 10.3% | |
| 12 | RJ Spencer | G | Sr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 23.7% | |
| 20 | BJ Omot | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Chance Stephens | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Max Lorenson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
W Illinois2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lucas Lorenzen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-30 | 32.9 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 48.0% | 31.5% | 6.9 | 80.2% | 28.5% | |
| 12 | Isaiah Griffin | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-20 | 28.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 42.0% | 33.0% | 2.8 | 72.0% | 26.6% | |
| 13 | Makai Kvamme | G | Fr | 6'2" | 31-24 | 25.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 37.0% | 17.2% | 0.9 | 48.0% | 18.1% | |
| 15 | Francis Okwuosah | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-19 | 22.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 53.0% | 37.8% | 3.8 | 70.8% | 20.8% | |
| 45 | Antwaun Massey | F | Sr | 6'8" | 26-23 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 49.7% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 48.2% | 26.0% | |
| 22 | Goanar Biliew | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-18 | 17.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 44.6% | 38.9% | 0.6 | 56.5% | 17.7% | |
| 5 | Karyiek Dixon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 20-14 | 25.3 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.3% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 72.0% | 19.3% | |
| 0 | Tyran Cook | G | So | 6'2" | 27-5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Danny Stephens | G | Fr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 17.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 42.8% | 26.8% | 2.7 | 73.9% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Marcus Pigram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 40.2% | 27.3% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 21.9% | |
| 11 | Ifiok Peter | F | So | 6'6" | 23-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 52.8% | 24.3% | |
| 50 | Nick Hittle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 18-1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 39.5% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 68.8% | 18.7% | |
| 14 | Steven Tipton | G | Sr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 22.5% | |
| 10 | Jake Edwards | G | Fr | 6'5" | 11-0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 5.0% | |
| 1 | Jack Riley | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26W Illinois
Against the spread
Season
11-17
Home
3-9
Road
8-8
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −8.5
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 2 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
12-15-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
6-10
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.2
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 | Lindenwood | H | L 69–91 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 150.5 | O160 | 97.8 | 129.0 | 70.5 |
| Feb 26 | SIUE | A | L 47–67 | +14.0 | L−6.0 | 135.5 | U114 | 69.8 | 99.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Morehead St | H | L 59–81 | +8.0 | L−14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 92.9 | 127.6 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | S Indiana | H | L 70–77 | +2.5 | L−4.5 | 140.0 | O147 | 106.1 | 116.7 | 66.0 |
| Feb 12 | Little Rock | H | L 58–77 | +7.5 | L−11.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 81.8 | 108.7 | 70.9 |
| Feb 10 | E Illinois | H | W 79–70 | +4.5 | W+13.5 | 133.0 | O149 | 109.7 | 97.2 | 72.0 |
| Feb 7 | Tennessee St | A | L 56–83 | +14.5 | L−12.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 82.3 | 121.9 | 68.1 |
| Feb 5 | Tennessee Tech | A | L 72–97 | +9.5 | L−15.5 | 144.0 | O169 | 116.4 | 156.9 | 61.8 |
| Jan 31 | UT Martin | H | L 44–84 | +9.0 | L−31.0 | 138.0 | U128 | 67.9 | 129.6 | 64.8 |
| Jan 29 | SE Missouri | H | L 74–78 | +11.0 | W+7.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 106.9 | 112.7 | 69.2 |
Minnesota
Against the spread
Season
14-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.3
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-20
Home
6-11
Road
4-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −7.5
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 | Baylor | N | L 48–67 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 146.5 | U115 | 80.7 | 112.7 | 59.5 |
| Mar 11 | Rutgers | N | L 67–72 | −6.0 | L−11.0 | 136.0 | O139 | 104.9 | 112.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Northwestern | H | W 67–66 | −4.0 | L−3.0 | 133.5 | U133 | 121.5 | 119.7 | 55.1 |
| Mar 4 | Indiana | A | L 47–77 | +6.5 | L−23.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 76.7 | 125.7 | 61.3 |
| Feb 28 | UCLA | H | W 78–73 | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 135.5 | O151 | 140.4 | 131.4 | 55.6 |
| Feb 24 | #3Michigan | A | L 67–77 | +22.5 | W+12.5 | 146.0 | U144 | 103.7 | 119.2 | 64.6 |
| Feb 21 | Rutgers | H | W 80–61 | −8.5 | W+10.5 | 133.5 | O141 | 136.6 | 104.2 | 58.6 |
| Feb 17 | Oregon | A | W 61–44 | +3.5 | W+20.5 | 134.5 | U105 | 101.9 | 73.5 | 59.9 |
| Feb 14 | Washington | A | L 57–69 | +7.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U126 | 95.1 | 115.1 | 59.9 |
| Feb 8 | Maryland | H | L 62–67 | −10.0 | L−15.0 | 139.0 | U129 | 113.0 | 122.1 | 54.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeW IllinoisMinnesota
Efficiency
98.4
109.8
116.1
105.4
67.7
65.1
—
—
Shooting
44.5%
53.9%
43.5%
56.2%
30.9%
34.2%
66.2%
69.4%
37.7%
35.8%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
16.5%
14.9%
16.9%
27.0%
26.8%
34.8%
29.5%
10.0%
8.8%
11.1%
12.2%
Style
33.3%
47.1%
43.2%
41.6%
11.9%
11.1%
37.0%
71.0%
30.1%
16.4%
Roster
3.10
2.87
6'5.1"
6'5.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputW Illinois
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Minnesota
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.