CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCEFCU Arena, Normal, IL

Bellarmine

Efficiency #281

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf

Illinois St

Efficiency #80

2025-26: 23-13 · 12-9 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · TBD

69.6

win 15%

Projected

81.5

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: ILST −11.9 · total 151.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Illinois St 67.8, Bellarmine 66.5 → 66.0 possessions

−5.1

Illinois St offense vs Bellarmine defense

+8.0

Bellarmine offense vs Illinois St defense

−0.1

Projected total

151.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Illinois St offense vs Bellarmine defense

+8.0

Bellarmine offense vs Illinois St defense

+0.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Illinois St by 11.9

11.9

Bellarmine side ◂▸ Illinois St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.0 against a projected 151.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Illinois St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Illinois St is the faster team (67.5, #225 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.1

model

Projected team totals

69.6 / 81.5

Bellarmine / Illinois St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#319

Bellarmine

67.8#227

Illinois St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageIllinois St

Where Illinois St scores: shooting

Illinois St shoots an effective 53.6% (#77); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 56.8%, 5.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageBellarmine

Where Bellarmine scores: shooting

Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); Illinois St allows 49.8% (#90). Expect about 55.2%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassBellarmine

Bellarmine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 22.4% is worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.

ClashIllinois St

Style match: 3-point volume

Illinois St takes 43.3% of its shots from three; Bellarmine lets opponents take 50.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.6% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bellarmine, Bellarmine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bellarmine at about 37.9% of its shots from three, Illinois St about 49.6%.

TurnoversBellarmine

Bellarmine protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Bellarmine's offense.

Bellarmine has the ball

OffenseIllinois St allowsvs D1 avg

59.4% #3

49.8% #90

+5.6 pt/100

15.5% #104

16.0% #223

+1.5 pt/100

22.4% #354

25.4% #13

-4.9 pt/100

35.0% #178

32.3% #113

-0.2 pt/100

78.8% #7

—

+0.6 pt/100

Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Illinois St has the ball

OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #77

59.4% #365

+7.9 pt/100

16.9% #194

15.0% #287

+1.3 pt/100

28.0% #268

34.2% #320

+0.1 pt/100

31.6% #266

34.3% #157

-0.3 pt/100

71.2% #234

—

-0.1 pt/100

Illinois St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmineoffense vsIllinois Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bellarmine shoots

47.4

5.9

40.7

Illinois St allows

37.2

8.2

19.8

34.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#9	60.7%#258	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	41.1%#212	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	33.7%#46	38.0%
Three	38.1%#17	33.0%#122	33.7%

Illinois Stoffense vsBellarminedefense

Share of shots by zone

Illinois St shoots

33.7

7.4

16.2

42.8

Bellarmine allows

33.1

6.3

10.1

50.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.0%#23	67.7%#363	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#306	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.5%#93	39.5%#221	38.0%
Three	34.9%#126	40.4%#364	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmine

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365

Off reb %

22.4%

#354

Def reb %

65.8%

#320

Turnover %

15.5%

#104

Forced TO %

15.0%

#287

FT rate

35.0%

#178

FT allowed

34.3%

#157

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Illinois St

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#171 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#268

Def reb %

74.6%

#13

Turnover %

16.9%

#194

Forced TO %

16.0%

#223

FT rate

31.6%

#266

FT allowed

32.3%

#113

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.5

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Illinois St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#171 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Illinois St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Johnny Kinziger	G	Jr	5'11"	36-34	32.3	11.5	2.5	3.3	2.1	48.6%	33.0%	5.2	77.4%	24.4%
14	Boden Skunberg	G	Sr	6'5"	35-34	27.0	9.6	4.4	1.4	1.2	54.4%	38.8%	4.3	72.2%	21.4%
4	Landon Wolf	G	Sr	6'5"	36-15	23.2	7.6	5.0	0.8	0.8	60.5%	38.5%	3.0	81.8%	17.5%
10	Ty'Reek Coleman	G	Fr	6'2"	35-19	22.7	10.0	2.7	1.8	1.6	58.2%	41.6%	2.5	70.2%	25.6%
35	Chase Walker	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	22.6	13.7	5.5	2.1	2.3	56.1%	29.0%	1.0	70.1%	35.9%
3	Mason Klabo	G	Fr	6'2"	34-17	16.1	5.5	2.3	1.2	0.5	57.0%	38.8%	2.5	78.1%	19.0%
1	Landon Moore	G	Sr	6'3"	36-0	13.9	3.5	1.3	1.0	0.5	50.9%	32.8%	1.7	50.0%	16.7%
12	Brandon Lieb	F	Sr	7'1"	36-4	12.6	3.1	4.0	0.7	0.8	51.1%	—	0.0	52.6%	17.7%
0	Jack Daugherty	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.6	3.0	1.5	0.2	0.2	34.8%	24.2%	3.3	76.5%	22.8%
23	Cameron Barnes	F	So	6'10"	13-0	6.9	1.3	1.8	0.5	0.5	70.8%	50.0%	0.2	—	12.4%
13	Ty Blake	G	Jr	6'4"	8-0	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.1	43.8%	33.3%	0.4	—	27.7%
2	Isaac Ericksen	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Nick Allen	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bellarmine

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

10-3

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-10

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 73–86	+8.0	L−5.0	155.0	O159	115.6	136.2	63.1
Mar 4	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	N	W 82–79	−2.0	W+1.0	146.5	O161	128.6	123.8	63.8
Feb 28	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	W 111–97	+5.5	W+19.5	155.0	O208	134.2	117.3	82.7
Feb 25	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	L 68–73	−3.0	L−8.0	147.0	U141	115.5	124.0	58.8
Feb 21	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	H	L 92–95	+2.0	L−1.0	153.0	O187	144.3	149.0	63.7
Feb 18	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 72–75	+3.5	W+0.5	155.5	U147	112.5	117.2	64.0
Feb 14	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	L 70–90	+9.5	L−10.5	153.0	O160	115.7	148.8	60.5
Feb 11	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	A	L 76–84	+7.5	L−0.5	149.5	O160	115.9	128.0	65.6
Feb 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 81–65	+2.0	W+18.0	152.5	U146	120.3	96.5	67.3
Feb 5	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 92–71	−4.5	W+16.5	148.5	O163	149.6	115.5	61.5

Illinois St

Against the spread

Season

20-15

Home

11-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-20

Home

6-9

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 2	AuburnAdjEM #41	N	L 66–88	+8.0	L−14.0	148.0	O154	102.7	136.9	64.3
Mar 25	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 61–55	+7.0	W+13.0	140.0	U116	97.2	87.6	62.8
Mar 22	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	A	W 78–75	+8.0	W+11.0	152.5	O153	112.3	108.0	69.5
Mar 18	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	W 79–58	−4.5	W+16.5	154.5	U137	114.3	83.9	69.1
Mar 6	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	N	L 52–74	+2.0	L−20.0	129.5	U126	83.5	118.9	62.3
Mar 1	BelmontAdjEM #54	H	W 81–74	+1.0	W+8.0	151.0	O155	131.1	119.8	61.8
Feb 25	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	A	W 71–69	+5.0	W+7.0	132.0	O140	114.3	111.1	62.1
Feb 21	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	L 60–74	+4.5	L−9.5	144.5	U134	93.5	115.3	64.2
Feb 18	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	W 78–61	−2.5	W+14.5	158.5	U139	120.1	93.9	64.9
Feb 15	UICAdjEM #99	A	L 56–83	−1.0	L−28.0	141.0	U139	76.9	114.0	72.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BellarmineIllinois St

Efficiency

113.2

109.8

119.4

103.6

66.5

67.8

—

Shooting

59.4%

53.6%

61.0%

54.6%

38.1%

34.9%

78.8%

71.2%

35.0%

31.6%

Ball control & glass

15.5%

16.9%

15.0%

16.0%

22.4%

28.0%

34.2%

25.4%

9.1%

9.0%

Style

41.2%

43.3%

47.0%

41.5%

9.2%

9.0%

53.4%

51.3%

28.4%

35.8%

Roster

2.70

2.94

6'5.8"

6'4.4"

93.7%

88.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bellarmine

Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%

Lost

Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Illinois St

Returning minutes: 88.3%Returning production: 85.9%

Lost

Ty Pence 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Akron

Added

Isaac Ericksen no D1 minutes last season
Nick Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.