CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX

Oral Roberts

Efficiency #314

2025-26: 10-23 · 5-13 conf

SMU

Efficiency #44

2025-26: 20-14 · 9-11 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · TBD

68.8

win 7%

Projected

85.8

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: SMU −17.0 · total 154.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: SMU 69.1, Oral Roberts 68.6 → 69.4 possessions

+2.4

SMU offense vs Oral Roberts defense

+8.5

Oral Roberts offense vs SMU defense

−4.5

Projected total

154.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

SMU offense vs Oral Roberts defense

+8.5

Oral Roberts offense vs SMU defense

+4.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

SMU by 17.0

17.0

Oral Roberts side ◂▸ SMU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SMU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SMU is the faster team (70.6, #73 of 365) and Oral Roberts the slower (69.2, #138). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.6

model

Projected team totals

68.8 / 85.8

Oral Roberts / SMU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#159

Oral Roberts

69.1#108

SMU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSMU

Where SMU scores: shooting

SMU shoots an effective 55.6% (#26); Oral Roberts allows 53.6% (#289). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashOral Roberts

Style match: 3-point volume

Oral Roberts takes 45.6% of its shots from three; SMU lets opponents take 47.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.6% — both habits push the same way.

GlassSMU

SMU owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.6% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for SMU's offense.

TurnoversSMU

SMU protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for SMU's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (SMU, Oral Roberts's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Oral Roberts at about 49.6% of its shots from three, SMU about 34.7%.

ClashOral Roberts

Style match: paint scoring

Oral Roberts gets only 38.4% of its points in the paint; SMU protects the paint (37.5% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.9% — both habits push the same way.

Oral Roberts has the ball

OffenseSMU allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #256

51.6% #189

-1.1 pt/100

18.5% #297

16.8% #164

-1.3 pt/100

28.4% #249

31.6% #237

-0.5 pt/100

34.8% #187

32.1% #107

-0.2 pt/100

74.0% #136

—

+0.1 pt/100

Oral Roberts net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

SMU has the ball

OffenseOral Roberts allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

53.6% #289

+5.3 pt/100

15.7% #116

14.7% #312

+2.4 pt/100

35.4% #37

31.8% #247

+2.5 pt/100

30.4% #301

39.1% #289

+0.0 pt/100

74.3% #117

—

+0.2 pt/100

SMU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Oral Robertsoffense vsSMUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oral Roberts shoots

38.9

3.8

13.1

44.3

SMU allows

31.4

4.3

16.6

47.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.5%#285	60.8%#263	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.3%#191	37.0%#111	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.5%#70	38.3%#169	38.0%
Three	32.0%#282	34.1%#188	33.7%

SMUoffense vsOral Robertsdefense

Share of shots by zone

SMU shoots

34.6

6.9

23.0

35.4

Oral Roberts allows

46.4

5.1

11.9

36.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.0%#38	55.4%#73	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.5%#17	41.3%#216	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.1%#25	43.6%#336	38.0%
Three	37.1%#27	37.4%#348	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Oral Roberts

−4.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#342 of 365

Off reb %

28.4%

#249

Def reb %

68.2%

#247

Turnover %

18.5%

#297

Forced TO %

14.7%

#312

FT rate

34.8%

#187

FT allowed

39.1%

#289

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−1.0

SMU

+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#37

Def reb %

68.4%

#237

Turnover %

15.7%

#116

Forced TO %

16.8%

#164

FT rate

30.4%

#301

FT allowed

32.1%

#107

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed+0.8

SMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#112 of 365) to Oral Roberts’s −4.6 (#342).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Oral Roberts2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oral Roberts's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Connor Dow	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.8	12.5	4.0	1.8	1.9	53.9%	33.5%	7.3	81.5%	23.4%
9	Ofri Naveh	F	So	6'7"	32-32	28.9	11.2	6.0	1.8	2.0	49.8%	29.1%	1.7	67.4%	24.5%
1	Ty Harper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-29	28.8	17.8	2.9	2.4	2.8	48.4%	32.2%	5.6	84.7%	37.2%
6	Cal Furnish	G	Fr	5'10"	33-6	20.5	4.0	2.5	1.5	1.0	54.7%	33.9%	1.8	75.7%	12.4%
2	Chase Martin	G	Jr	6'4"	29-12	19.8	2.7	3.5	1.7	1.0	47.6%	44.4%	0.3	55.9%	10.8%
25	Luke Gray	F	So	6'6"	33-16	17.2	8.4	3.6	0.4	0.7	52.9%	32.4%	3.2	72.5%	26.9%
7	Martins Kilups	G	Fr	6'4"	32-0	17.5	3.7	2.1	0.7	0.5	57.6%	35.8%	2.1	35.7%	12.5%
0	Jack Turner	G	So	6'3"	24-18	23.0	6.8	2.3	1.6	2.0	49.3%	33.3%	3.8	84.2%	21.0%
27	Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams	F	Jr	6'10"	32-18	16.7	6.9	4.2	0.4	1.3	45.8%	24.4%	1.4	70.4%	27.9%
21	Baron Smith Jr.	F	So	6'9"	24-0	7.8	1.7	1.8	0.2	0.5	31.6%	—	0.0	63.0%	19.4%
10	Aaron Jacob	F	Sr	6'8"	16-1	5.3	2.6	1.1	0.3	0.2	37.5%	15.0%	1.3	93.8%	31.0%
20	Lane Sparks	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	13.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	90.0%	50.0%	2.0	—	21.9%
8	Alex Couto	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Laymen McGrady	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SMU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Samet Yigitoglu	C	So	7'2"	34-34	28.9	10.7	7.9	1.6	1.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.0	49.5%	20.7%
3	Corey Washington	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	27.8	11.4	4.9	0.9	1.0	56.8%	38.8%	3.4	76.9%	21.1%
10	Jaden Toombs	C	Fr	6'10"	27-5	20.0	8.3	4.6	1.1	0.8	58.6%	23.1%	1.0	65.8%	22.8%
7	Jermaine O'Neal Jr.	F	Fr	6'5"	34-2	15.0	4.5	2.0	0.4	0.5	51.1%	37.1%	1.8	91.7%	17.8%
9	B.J. Davis-Ray	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	7.1	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.3	41.1%	21.7%	0.7	75.0%	13.9%
4	Sam Walters	F	Jr	6'9"	24-2	9.3	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.4	52.5%	34.9%	1.8	0.0%	17.9%
13	Mitchell Holmes	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	5.5	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.2	70.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	13.1%
1	Chance Puryear	F	Fr	6'7"	11-0	3.2	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.4	30.0%	33.3%	0.3	33.3%	16.3%
22	Nigel Walls	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	3.3	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	6.9%
31	Trey Utter	G	Sr	6'0"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
33	Niccolo Kalischer-Stork	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	—	—	0.0	0.0%	49.3%
8	Billy White III	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oral Roberts2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oral Roberts's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Connor Dow	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.8	12.5	4.0	1.8	1.9	53.9%	33.5%	7.3	81.5%	23.4%
9	Ofri Naveh	F	So	6'7"	32-32	28.9	11.2	6.0	1.8	2.0	49.8%	29.1%	1.7	67.4%	24.5%
1	Ty Harper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-29	28.8	17.8	2.9	2.4	2.8	48.4%	32.2%	5.6	84.7%	37.2%
6	Cal Furnish	G	Fr	5'10"	33-6	20.5	4.0	2.5	1.5	1.0	54.7%	33.9%	1.8	75.7%	12.4%
2	Chase Martin	G	Jr	6'4"	29-12	19.8	2.7	3.5	1.7	1.0	47.6%	44.4%	0.3	55.9%	10.8%
25	Luke Gray	F	So	6'6"	33-16	17.2	8.4	3.6	0.4	0.7	52.9%	32.4%	3.2	72.5%	26.9%
7	Martins Kilups	G	Fr	6'4"	32-0	17.5	3.7	2.1	0.7	0.5	57.6%	35.8%	2.1	35.7%	12.5%
0	Jack Turner	G	So	6'3"	24-18	23.0	6.8	2.3	1.6	2.0	49.3%	33.3%	3.8	84.2%	21.0%
27	Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams	F	Jr	6'10"	32-18	16.7	6.9	4.2	0.4	1.3	45.8%	24.4%	1.4	70.4%	27.9%
21	Baron Smith Jr.	F	So	6'9"	24-0	7.8	1.7	1.8	0.2	0.5	31.6%	—	0.0	63.0%	19.4%
10	Aaron Jacob	F	Sr	6'8"	16-1	5.3	2.6	1.1	0.3	0.2	37.5%	15.0%	1.3	93.8%	31.0%
20	Lane Sparks	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	13.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	90.0%	50.0%	2.0	—	21.9%
8	Alex Couto	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Laymen McGrady	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Oral Roberts

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-7

Road

6-8

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.2

Covered 5 straightCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-16-2

Home

4-7-1

Road

7-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.0

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	N	L 65–76	+12.0	W+1.0	147.5	U141	96.9	113.3	67.1
Mar 4	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	N	W 84–62	−8.5	W+13.5	149.0	U146	120.5	88.9	69.7
Feb 28	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	A	W 94–70	−3.5	W+20.5	149.5	O164	127.7	95.1	73.6
Feb 26	DenverAdjEM #243	H	W 102–80	+2.5	W+24.5	156.5	O182	142.7	111.9	71.5
Feb 21	South DakotaAdjEM #292	H	W 67–62	+1.0	W+6.0	151.5	U129	92.2	85.4	72.6
Feb 18	OmahaAdjEM #257	A	L 71–80	+6.5	L−2.5	152.0	U151	107.6	121.2	66.0
Feb 14	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	H	L 69–87	+5.5	L−12.5	147.5	O156	104.3	131.5	66.2
Feb 12	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	H	W 69–60	−6.0	W+3.0	149.5	U129	106.0	92.2	65.1
Feb 7	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 75–92	+15.5	L−1.5	152.0	O167	99.9	122.6	75.1
Jan 31	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	L 72–95	+13.0	L−10.0	147.5	O167	98.3	129.7	73.3

SMU

Against the spread

Season

14-18-2

Home

7-10-1

Road

4-6-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-13-2

Home

10-8

Road

6-4-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total −1.6

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	#11Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	L 79–89	−7.0	L−17.0	160.5	O168	119.2	134.3	66.3
Mar 11	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 58–62	+6.5	W+2.5	163.5	U120	94.4	100.9	61.5
Mar 10	SyracuseAdjEM #85	N	W 86–69	−4.0	W+13.0	155.0	P155	130.2	104.4	66.1
Mar 7	Florida StAdjEM #74	A	L 78–91	+1.0	L−12.0	158.5	O169	105.8	123.4	73.7
Mar 4	#22MiamiAdjEM #30	H	L 69–77	−1.5	L−9.5	156.5	U146	99.4	111.0	69.4
Feb 28	StanfordAdjEM #77	A	L 75–95	+1.0	L−19.0	154.5	O170	116.6	147.6	64.3
Feb 25	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	L 69–73	−4.0	L−8.0	163.0	U142	98.9	104.7	69.7
Feb 21	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	H	W 94–70	−15.5	W+8.5	150.0	O164	143.1	106.6	65.7
Feb 17	#21LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	W 95–85	+4.0	W+14.0	168.0	O180	124.3	111.2	76.4
Feb 14	SyracuseAdjEM #85	A	L 78–79	−2.0	L−3.0	158.0	U157	119.4	121.0	65.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Oral RobertsSMU

Efficiency

103.7

117.0

112.2

106.7

68.6

69.1

—

Shooting

49.7%

55.6%

51.1%

55.6%

32.0%

37.1%

74.0%

74.3%

34.8%

30.4%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

15.7%

14.7%

16.8%

28.4%

35.4%

31.8%

31.6%

10.8%

9.3%

9.8%

7.5%

Style

45.6%

35.9%

38.4%

43.7%

14.8%

13.4%

47.1%

54.9%

32.2%

22.4%

Roster

2.45

2.18

6'4.7"

6'9"

—

53.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Oral Roberts

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Oral Roberts's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

SMU

Returning minutes: 53.0%Returning production: 45.5%

Lost

Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma

Added

Billy White III no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.