CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteCurry Arena, Charlotte, NC

Liberty

Efficiency #103

2025-26: 26-8 · 17-4 conf

S Illinois

Efficiency #107

2025-26: 16-16 · 10-11 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ET

72.5

win 51%

Projected

72.2

win 49%

No line posted yet.

Model: LIB −0.3 · total 144.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: S Illinois 69.4, Liberty 66.1 → 67.1 possessions

−2.6

S Illinois offense vs Liberty defense

−0.6

Liberty offense vs S Illinois defense

−0.4

Projected total

144.6

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

S Illinois offense vs Liberty defense

−0.6

Liberty offense vs S Illinois defense

+0.4

Liberty by 0.3

0.3

Liberty side ◂▸ S Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −0.2 against −0.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Illinois is the faster team (69.8, #100 of 365) and Liberty the slower (64.5, #339). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.6

model

Projected team totals

72.5 / 72.2

Liberty / S Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.1#340

Liberty

69.4#91

S Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLiberty

Where Liberty struggles: the offensive glass

Liberty rebounds 19.3% of its own misses (#365); S Illinois lets opponents grab 27.3% of their own misses (#44). Expect about 21.1%, 9.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

S Illinois averages 69.8 possessions per 40, Liberty 64.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (S Illinois, Liberty, S Illinois's defense, Liberty's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Liberty at about 47.4% of its shots from three, S Illinois about 29.4%.

ClashLiberty

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Liberty (#8 in 3-point shooting) against S Illinois (#17 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.4%. Historically Liberty's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

ClashLiberty

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Liberty (#37 in live-ball turnovers) against S Illinois (#49 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically S Illinois's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

Liberty has the ball

OffenseS Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

59.1% #4

49.0% #70

+4.8 pt/100

13.4% #12

18.5% #75

+1.0 pt/100

19.3% #365

27.3% #44

-5.7 pt/100

31.4% #273

31.4% #95

-0.5 pt/100

71.4% #228

—

-0.1 pt/100

Liberty net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100

S Illinois has the ball

OffenseLiberty allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #286

52.7% #251

-0.7 pt/100

17.0% #207

17.1% #147

-0.4 pt/100

30.9% #167

33.1% #302

+1.0 pt/100

31.3% #275

27.0% #23

-0.8 pt/100

68.3% #321

—

-0.4 pt/100

S Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Libertyoffense vsS Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Liberty shoots

42.9

4.9

4.4

47.7

S Illinois allows

35.9

6.1

16.5

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.5%#28	58.1%#148	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.0%#147	36.2%#93	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	42.4%#315	38.0%
Three	38.6%#8	30.4%#17	33.7%

S Illinoisoffense vsLibertydefense

Share of shots by zone

S Illinois shoots

40.7

7.4

23.0

28.9

Liberty allows

40.8

8.7

14.1

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#169	55.8%#83	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.9%#81	43.2%#255	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#57	39.9%#240	38.0%
Three	27.8%#363	37.7%#353	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Liberty

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#207 of 365

Off reb %

19.3%

#365

Def reb %

66.9%

#302

Turnover %

13.4%

#12

Forced TO %

17.1%

#147

FT rate

31.4%

#273

FT allowed

27.0%

#23

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.6

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.1

S Illinois

+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#81 of 365

Off reb %

30.9%

#167

Def reb %

72.7%

#44

Turnover %

17.0%

#207

Forced TO %

18.5%

#75

FT rate

31.3%

#275

FT allowed

31.4%

#95

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.0

S Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to Liberty’s −0.6 (#207).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Liberty2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Zach Cleveland	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	34.9	11.9	7.6	6.8	3.2	60.7%	0.0%	0.1	53.1%	23.2%
4	Brett Decker Jr.	G	So	6'3"	34-34	33.6	16.9	2.6	1.1	0.7	64.3%	47.1%	7.1	84.8%	24.8%
3	Kaden Metheny	G	Sr	5'11"	33-32	33.8	13.1	3.0	3.1	1.2	60.1%	39.6%	7.6	75.0%	21.8%
0	Colin Porter	G	Sr	5'10"	32-32	34.3	11.1	3.0	3.4	1.3	53.6%	35.8%	5.4	91.1%	19.4%
12	Josh Smith	F	Sr	6'9"	33-5	15.4	7.5	3.7	0.4	0.6	65.1%	43.8%	0.5	77.0%	24.5%
1	Zander Carter	G	Fr	6'6"	34-0	13.1	3.3	1.7	0.8	0.3	56.1%	30.0%	1.2	46.3%	15.4%
11	Zander Yates	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	6.5	1.8	1.0	0.3	0.3	46.9%	34.1%	1.5	60.0%	21.0%
21	Ryan Jones Jr.	F	Fr	6'8"	25-0	5.3	2.1	1.2	0.0	0.2	51.0%	27.8%	1.4	—	25.5%
15	Drew Grimes	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	4.4	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.2	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	53.3%	18.3%
20	Torr Sorensen	F	Fr	6'7"	9-0	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.0	0.0	44.4%	25.0%	0.9	100.0%	19.8%
24	Brady Kester	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	4.8	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	11.2%
10	JC Shirer Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	7-0	4.1	2.0	0.6	0.7	0.1	70.0%	50.0%	0.6	—	22.5%
23	TJ Drain	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.7	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	72.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.6%
7	Isaiah Ihnen	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Quel'Ron House	G	So	6'0"	30-28	30.1	15.2	3.4	3.3	2.3	48.3%	25.5%	1.8	75.0%	32.3%
10	Damien Mayo Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	31-25	25.4	9.1	2.9	2.3	1.3	53.5%	37.1%	3.1	78.4%	21.1%
0	Rolyns Aligbe	F	So	6'9"	32-32	24.4	9.5	7.4	0.7	1.2	51.6%	34.8%	2.2	66.2%	23.4%
5	Jalen Haynes	G	Fr	6'4"	32-7	20.8	7.9	2.4	2.1	1.4	46.3%	20.5%	2.4	78.2%	24.9%
8	Prince Aligbe	F	Sr	6'7"	30-29	22.1	7.2	5.3	0.7	1.5	44.5%	0.0%	0.6	56.1%	23.8%
4	Davion Sykes	G	Sr	6'6"	32-3	19.0	7.1	4.4	0.8	1.0	52.2%	0.0%	0.3	71.4%	22.5%
9	Isaiah Stafford	G	Sr	6'2"	16-4	19.1	7.3	2.6	0.9	0.9	43.4%	20.4%	3.1	75.8%	25.0%
35	Max Pikaar	F	So	7'0"	27-0	10.8	1.9	2.1	0.3	0.5	41.5%	25.9%	1.0	61.1%	13.4%
25	Jorge Moreno	F	Sr	6'11"	25-0	10.8	2.8	3.0	0.5	0.8	64.4%	—	0.0	41.9%	16.5%
33	Jaheem Webber	C	Fr	6'10"	19-0	7.0	1.4	1.7	0.3	0.2	63.2%	—	0.0	25.0%	11.7%
3	Caden Hawkins	G	Jr	6'0"	15-0	5.3	1.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	50.0%	36.4%	0.7	44.4%	16.1%
7	Daniel Pauliukonis	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Luke Walsh	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Liberty2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Zach Cleveland	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	34.9	11.9	7.6	6.8	3.2	60.7%	0.0%	0.1	53.1%	23.2%
4	Brett Decker Jr.	G	So	6'3"	34-34	33.6	16.9	2.6	1.1	0.7	64.3%	47.1%	7.1	84.8%	24.8%
3	Kaden Metheny	G	Sr	5'11"	33-32	33.8	13.1	3.0	3.1	1.2	60.1%	39.6%	7.6	75.0%	21.8%
0	Colin Porter	G	Sr	5'10"	32-32	34.3	11.1	3.0	3.4	1.3	53.6%	35.8%	5.4	91.1%	19.4%
12	Josh Smith	F	Sr	6'9"	33-5	15.4	7.5	3.7	0.4	0.6	65.1%	43.8%	0.5	77.0%	24.5%
1	Zander Carter	G	Fr	6'6"	34-0	13.1	3.3	1.7	0.8	0.3	56.1%	30.0%	1.2	46.3%	15.4%
11	Zander Yates	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	6.5	1.8	1.0	0.3	0.3	46.9%	34.1%	1.5	60.0%	21.0%
21	Ryan Jones Jr.	F	Fr	6'8"	25-0	5.3	2.1	1.2	0.0	0.2	51.0%	27.8%	1.4	—	25.5%
15	Drew Grimes	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	4.4	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.2	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	53.3%	18.3%
20	Torr Sorensen	F	Fr	6'7"	9-0	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.0	0.0	44.4%	25.0%	0.9	100.0%	19.8%
24	Brady Kester	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	4.8	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	11.2%
10	JC Shirer Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	7-0	4.1	2.0	0.6	0.7	0.1	70.0%	50.0%	0.6	—	22.5%
23	TJ Drain	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.7	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	72.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.6%
7	Isaiah Ihnen	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Liberty

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

6-7

Road

7-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −6.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

8-5

Road

7-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +5.3

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	NevadaAdjEM #71	A	L 63–73	+7.0	L−3.0	147.5	U136	101.5	117.6	62.0
Mar 17	George MasonAdjEM #83	A	W 77–71	+3.0	W+9.0	141.5	O148	122.3	112.8	63.0
Mar 11	Missouri StAdjEM #212	N	L 69–77	−5.0	L−13.0	142.5	O146	108.0	120.6	63.9
Mar 7	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 79–72	−4.5	W+2.5	152.5	U151	127.1	115.8	62.2
Mar 5	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 71–76	−8.5	L−13.5	139.0	O147	118.8	127.1	59.8
Feb 28	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	W 81–78	−4.0	L−1.0	139.0	O159	127.5	122.8	63.5
Feb 26	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 65–74	+1.0	L−8.0	152.5	U139	102.7	116.9	63.3
Feb 21	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 73–94	−7.5	L−28.5	149.0	O167	105.3	135.5	69.3
Feb 19	FIUAdjEM #200	H	W 90–89 OT	−10.5	L−9.5	153.5	O179	113.6	112.3	79.2
Feb 14	UTEPAdjEM #279	A	W 73–64	−6.5	W+2.5	138.5	U137	118.9	104.3	61.4

S Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

5-8

Road

10-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

9-22

Home

4-9

Road

5-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −10.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	DrakeAdjEM #210	N	L 63–67	−4.5	L−8.5	138.0	U130	97.8	104.0	64.4
Mar 1	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	A	W 81–67	−9.0	W+5.0	139.5	O148	126.8	104.9	63.9
Feb 25	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	W 66–55	−8.0	W+3.0	149.0	U121	93.4	77.8	70.7
Feb 21	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	A	W 59–57	+6.5	W+8.5	134.5	U116	96.2	92.9	61.3
Feb 18	DrakeAdjEM #210	A	W 66–61	−1.5	W+3.5	150.0	U127	93.5	86.4	70.6
Feb 15	BradleyAdjEM #117	H	L 60–70	−2.5	L−12.5	147.0	U130	86.8	101.2	69.2
Feb 12	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	H	W 86–60	−12.0	W+14.0	142.5	O146	126.4	88.2	68.1
Feb 9	Indiana StAdjEM #213	A	W 80–65	−1.5	W+13.5	147.5	U145	107.2	87.1	74.7
Feb 6	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	L 81–91	+1.0	L−9.0	158.0	O172	110.8	124.4	73.1
Feb 3	Illinois StAdjEM #80	A	W 54–50	+9.0	W+13.0	141.5	U104	79.5	73.6	67.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LibertyS Illinois

Efficiency

114.2

105.5

110.5

102.2

66.1

69.4

—

Shooting

59.1%

49.2%

60.2%

52.2%

38.6%

27.8%

71.4%

68.3%

31.4%

31.3%

Ball control & glass

13.4%

17.0%

17.1%

18.5%

19.3%

30.9%

33.1%

27.3%

8.0%

9.7%

11.0%

8.5%

Style

47.7%

29.2%

43.0%

52.3%

8.5%

15.8%

61.4%

48.6%

19.7%

33.2%

Roster

3.25

2.83

6'3.2"

6'5.2"

86.7%

84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Liberty

Returning minutes: 86.7%Returning production: 84.4%

Lost

JJ Harper 26.8 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Isaiah Ihnen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

S Illinois

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 87.9%

Lost

Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.