CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteMichelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NVPlayers Era Eight

Kansas

Efficiency #25

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-7 conf

UNLV

Efficiency #124

2025-26: 18-17 · 12-10 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · 9:30 PM ET

79.3

win 76%

Projected

71.2

win 24%

No line posted yet.

Model: KU −8.1 · total 150.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UNLV 69.9, Kansas 68.5 → 70.1 possessions

+3.8

UNLV offense vs Kansas defense

−4.8

Kansas offense vs UNLV defense

+3.3

Projected total

150.5

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UNLV offense vs Kansas defense

−4.8

Kansas offense vs UNLV defense

−3.3

Kansas by 8.1

8.1

Kansas side ◂▸ UNLV side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UNLV.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UNLV is the faster team (70.5, #75 of 365) and Kansas the slower (68.3, #181). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.5

model

Projected team totals

79.3 / 71.2

Kansas / UNLV

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#170

Kansas

69.9#55

UNLV

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUNLV

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

UNLV (#49 in shot-blocking exposure) against Kansas (#6 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 13.0%. Historically Kansas's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

AdvantageUNLV

Where UNLV struggles: shooting

UNLV shoots an effective 53.6% (#81); Kansas allows 45.0% (#2). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversUNLV

UNLV protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for UNLV's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Kansas at about 34.2% of its shots from three, UNLV about 38.5%.

DefenseUNLV

UNLV's shot-blocking

UNLV ranks #33 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of Kansas's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashUNLV

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

UNLV (#51 in free-throw rate) against Kansas (#26 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.1%. Historically Kansas's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

Kansas has the ball

OffenseUNLV allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #186

52.3% #231

+0.7 pt/100

15.6% #109

17.4% #126

+0.3 pt/100

29.2% #227

32.0% #256

-0.0 pt/100

32.2% #255

44.9% #349

+0.6 pt/100

76.7% #37

—

+0.4 pt/100

Kansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

UNLV has the ball

OffenseKansas allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #81

45.0% #2

-2.7 pt/100

17.1% #209

13.8% #339

+2.1 pt/100

30.2% #189

29.9% #152

-0.2 pt/100

40.7% #51

27.4% #26

-0.2 pt/100

67.7% #331

—

-0.4 pt/100

UNLV net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Kansasoffense vsUNLVdefense

Share of shots by zone

Kansas shoots

35.9

9.4

20.3

34.4

UNLV allows

40.9

7.0

15.9

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.0%#51	58.5%#165	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.3%#283	26.2%#2	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.2%#259	42.7%#323	38.0%
Three	34.6%#139	35.2%#259	33.7%

UNLVoffense vsKansasdefense

Share of shots by zone

UNLV shoots

41.7

6.1

15.9

36.4

Kansas allows

32.7

10.4

15.6

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.3%#111	51.3%#10	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	37.6%#127	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#58	31.9%#16	38.0%
Three	35.2%#102	30.6%#24	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Kansas

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#180 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#227

Def reb %

70.1%

#152

Turnover %

15.6%

#109

Forced TO %

13.8%

#339

FT rate

32.2%

#255

FT allowed

27.4%

#26

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+2.0

UNLV

−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#244 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#189

Def reb %

68.0%

#256

Turnover %

17.1%

#209

Forced TO %

17.4%

#126

FT rate

40.7%

#51

FT allowed

44.9%

#349

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−2.5

Kansas has more extra scoring chances per game: 0.0 (#180 of 365) to UNLV’s −1.2 (#244).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Kansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jamari McDowell	G	So	6'5"	35-7	17.3	3.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	51.0%	34.9%	2.5	62.5%	12.5%
13	Elmarko Jackson	G	So	6'3"	34-1	17.7	4.8	1.8	1.4	1.0	44.4%	37.2%	1.3	82.5%	18.4%
7	Kohl Rosario	G	Fr	6'6"	29-6	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.4	0.4	52.9%	28.6%	2.2	75.0%	17.9%
1	Jayden Dawson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-1	9.6	2.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	42.6%	27.9%	1.8	100.0%	14.8%
34	Paul Mbiya	C	Fr	7'0"	21-0	5.1	1.2	1.4	0.0	0.1	68.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	12.6%
6	Samis Calderon	F	Fr	6'8"	15-0	4.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	33.3%	11.7%
0	Nginyu Ngala	G	Sr	5'10"	11-0	3.5	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	100.0%	23.7%
12	Wilder Evers	G	Jr	6'4"	6-1	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.5	80.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	23.2%
25	Justin Cross	F	Sr	6'8"	5-1	2.6	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.0%	—	0.0	—	16.8%
21	Will Thengvall	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.0%
2	Corbin Allen	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNLV2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UNLV's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	Jr	6'1"	35-35	34.2	20.7	3.1	2.5	2.5	59.5%	41.4%	7.0	83.8%	31.7%
2	Kimani Hamilton	F	Sr	6'8"	35-35	29.3	12.8	4.9	2.3	1.6	53.1%	34.3%	2.9	72.7%	24.8%
3	Howie Fleming Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	32-27	29.1	9.0	6.3	3.7	2.0	50.0%	31.3%	2.6	80.2%	19.5%
6	Tyrin Jones	F	Fr	6'9"	32-15	27.0	11.9	5.0	1.4	1.1	59.8%	25.0%	0.3	48.8%	23.9%
12	Issac Williamson	G	Fr	6'0"	33-15	23.1	8.6	1.8	1.2	1.5	47.9%	33.3%	3.9	67.1%	24.3%
22	Walter Brown	F	Sr	6'5"	33-14	20.3	3.8	2.8	1.1	0.9	51.9%	34.7%	1.5	57.1%	12.7%
10	Jacob Bannarbie	F	So	6'9"	30-15	16.2	5.4	4.8	1.3	1.2	52.4%	25.0%	0.1	63.0%	21.1%
34	Emmanuel Stephen	C	So	7'0"	24-13	15.5	3.5	4.2	0.3	0.8	51.4%	0.0%	0.0	42.3%	15.9%
7	Al Green	G	Sr	6'3"	29-3	12.6	4.4	1.2	0.7	0.5	49.5%	31.1%	2.1	87.5%	20.6%
24	Naas Cunningham	F	Fr	6'7"	21-0	13.4	5.0	1.1	0.8	0.6	39.5%	23.4%	2.2	80.6%	24.2%
1	Ladji Dembele	F	Jr	6'8"	5-3	20.0	5.2	4.2	1.4	1.2	44.4%	28.6%	2.8	50.0%	18.2%
13	Jalen Cunningham	G	So	6'2"	6-0	3.3	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.0	30.0%	20.0%	0.8	—	14.3%
8	Mason Abittan	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
77	Myles Che	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	Xavier Brumfield	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jamari McDowell	G	So	6'5"	35-7	17.3	3.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	51.0%	34.9%	2.5	62.5%	12.5%
13	Elmarko Jackson	G	So	6'3"	34-1	17.7	4.8	1.8	1.4	1.0	44.4%	37.2%	1.3	82.5%	18.4%
7	Kohl Rosario	G	Fr	6'6"	29-6	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.4	0.4	52.9%	28.6%	2.2	75.0%	17.9%
1	Jayden Dawson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-1	9.6	2.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	42.6%	27.9%	1.8	100.0%	14.8%
34	Paul Mbiya	C	Fr	7'0"	21-0	5.1	1.2	1.4	0.0	0.1	68.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	12.6%
6	Samis Calderon	F	Fr	6'8"	15-0	4.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	33.3%	11.7%
0	Nginyu Ngala	G	Sr	5'10"	11-0	3.5	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	100.0%	23.7%
12	Wilder Evers	G	Jr	6'4"	6-1	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.5	80.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	23.2%
25	Justin Cross	F	Sr	6'8"	5-1	2.6	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.0%	—	0.0	—	16.8%
21	Will Thengvall	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.0%
2	Corbin Allen	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Kansas

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-5

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −5.2

Covered the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-24

Home

6-9

Road

3-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#5St John'sAdjEM #16	N	L 65–67	+3.5	W+1.5	145.5	U132	92.7	95.5	70.2
Mar 20	#13CA BaptistAdjEM #102	N	W 68–60	−14.0	L−6.0	142.0	U128	98.1	86.5	69.3
Mar 13	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	L 47–69	+5.5	L−16.5	138.0	U116	79.3	116.4	59.3
Mar 12	TCUAdjEM #51	N	W 78–73	−5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	104.6	97.9	74.6
Mar 7	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 104–85	−17.5	W+1.5	157.0	O189	133.2	108.9	78.0
Mar 3	Arizona StAdjEM #93	A	L 60–70	−6.0	L−16.0	150.0	U130	82.8	96.7	72.4
Feb 28	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 61–84	+10.0	L−13.0	151.5	U145	88.2	121.4	69.2
Feb 23	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	H	W 69–56	+2.5	W+15.5	138.0	U125	106.3	86.3	64.9
Feb 21	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	L 68–84	−9.0	L−25.0	139.0	O152	100.5	124.2	67.7
Feb 18	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	W 81–69	−6.5	W+5.5	159.5	U150	115.2	98.2	70.3

UNLV

Against the spread

Season

16-18

Home

8-7

Road

8-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-14

Home

11-4

Road

8-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.8

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	TulsaAdjEM #46	A	L 66–77	+5.0	L−6.0	161.5	U143	100.3	117.0	65.8
Mar 17	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	W 75–72	+1.0	W+4.0	152.5	U147	101.3	97.3	74.0
Mar 12	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 60–80	+8.5	L−11.5	156.5	U140	86.0	114.6	69.8
Mar 11	WyomingAdjEM #98	N	W 73–70	−3.5	L−0.5	153.0	U143	111.3	106.7	65.6
Mar 6	San Diego StAdjEM #53	A	L 86–89	+9.0	W+6.0	153.5	O175	116.6	120.7	73.7
Mar 3	Utah StateAdjEM #24	H	W 92–65	+7.5	W+34.5	156.5	O157	130.9	92.5	70.3
Feb 28	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 85–83 OT	+1.0	W+3.0	151.5	O168	112.7	110.0	75.4
Feb 25	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	A	L 67–80	+7.5	L−5.5	150.5	U147	96.4	115.1	69.5
Feb 21	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 91–66	−16.5	W+8.5	153.0	O157	132.0	95.7	69.0
Feb 18	Colorado StAdjEM #88	H	L 86–91	−2.5	L−7.5	148.0	O177	131.5	139.2	65.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

KansasUNLV

Efficiency

112.9

111.3

98.9

108.8

68.5

69.9

—

Shooting

51.2%

53.6%

50.9%

54.0%

34.6%

35.2%

76.7%

67.7%

32.2%

40.7%

Ball control & glass

15.6%

17.1%

13.8%

17.4%

29.2%

30.2%

29.9%

32.0%

9.5%

9.2%

8.1%

7.8%

Style

35.2%

36.4%

44.7%

46.9%

13.8%

52.3%

51.3%

25.2%

29.1%

Roster

2.04

2.76

6'4.9"

6'5.4"

28.8%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Kansas

Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 18.1%

Lost

Melvin Council Jr. 34.8 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Flory Bidunga 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Tre White 31.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bryson Tiller 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Darryn Peterson 19.9 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Corbin Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UNLV

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UNLV's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.