Montana State Bobcats vs Gonzaga Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction

Tue, Nov 17 · 11:00 PM ET · McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA

Non-conferenceCBSSNMcCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA
Montana St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #128
@
14Gonzaga
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #6
Tue, Nov 17 · 11:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Montana St is the faster team (69.8, #211 of 365) and Gonzaga the slower (69.3, #225). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.3#204
Montana St
71.7#109
Gonzaga

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Gonzaga has the ball+12.6
Montana St has the ball+0.2
Gonzaga has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.3% #28 · MTST allows 56.0% #284+9.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.5% #18 · MTST forces 17.9% #185 · ~10 turnovers+3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.9% #129 · MTST allows 17.9% #8−2.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 54.8% #28 · MTST allows 53.0% #320 · FT 73.0% #131+1.8
Montana St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.4% #103 · GONZ allows 50.0% #163+2.9
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.8% #252 · GONZ allows 27.1% #108−2.1
✗Coughs it upTO% 16.5% #129 · GONZ forces 20.9% #89 · ~14 turnovers−0.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 28.3% #272 · GONZ allows 43.7% #254 · FT 70.6% #1650.0

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Montana Stoffense vs#14Gonzagadefense
Share of shots by zone
Montana St shoots
Gonzaga allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim65.5%#9662.1%#22358.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.7%#15053.3%#28638.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.9%#9457.1%#32034.7%
Three37.1%#9425.7%#5732.5%
#14Gonzagaoffense vsMontana Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Gonzaga shoots
Montana St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim70.7%#4372.9%#33058.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)25.0%#25040.0%#19338.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#11730.8%#13834.7%
Three47.5%#830.3%#13232.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Montana St
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#205 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#252
Def reb %
82.1%
#8
Turnover %
16.5%
#129
Forced TO %
17.9%
#185
FT rate
28.3%
#272
FT allowed
53.0%
#320
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+4.6
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−3.9
#14Gonzaga
+12.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#35 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#129
Def reb %
72.9%
#108
Turnover %
11.5%
#18
Forced TO %
20.9%
#89
FT rate
54.8%
#28
FT allowed
43.7%
#254
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+4.8
Forcing turnovers+2.0
Foul shots drawn+4.5
Foul shots allowed−1.5

Gonzaga has more extra scoring chances per game: +12.1 (#35 of 365) to Montana St’s −1.8 (#205).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Montana St2026-27 numbers · last game: Long Beach St, Nov 7
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
31FSr6'8"2-228.031—Started last12.55.01.52.052.4%30.8%6.575.0%27.7%
2GSo6'7"2-028.028—Bench10.55.01.52.071.4%60.0%5.050.0%19.5%
5GSr6'4"2-227.523—Started last17.07.51.51.076.5%50.0%4.072.7%25.2%
44FJr6'8"2-225.026—Started last7.56.01.02.526.7%0.0%3.070.0%28.6%
4GSr6'2"2-223.016—Started last8.01.02.50.057.1%28.6%3.5—17.2%
0GJr6'3"2-115.510—Bench8.01.00.51.042.9%28.6%3.580.0%33.6%
24GSr6'2"1-131.031—Started last14.01.01.01.070.0%50.0%8.0—21.5%
12GSr6'3"2-014.515—Bench1.01.50.00.025.0%0.0%0.5—7.9%
1GSr6'1"2-013.07—Bench3.51.01.01.587.5%100.0%0.5—15.1%
21FSo7'0"1-013.014—Bench7.04.01.01.050.0%0.0%1.050.0%37.0%
7FFr6'5"1-07.00—Missed last game0.02.01.01.00.0%—0.0—15.6%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Montana St#14Gonzaga
Efficiency
108.5
118.8
106.0
95.0
70.3
71.7
0.4
6.3
Shooting
55.4%
61.3%
55.2%
56.0%
37.1%
47.5%
70.6%
73.0%
28.3%
54.8%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
11.5%
17.9%
20.9%
27.8%
33.9%
17.9%
27.1%
9.3%
5.8%
6.9%
4.0%
Style
51.7%
34.8%
33.1%
37.4%
11.5%
18.2%
40.0%
62.3%
35.5%
27.4%
Roster
3.40
2.92
6'5"
6'6.8"
64.6%
13.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Montana St
Returning minutes: 66.9%Returning production: 67.7%
Lost
  • Patrick McMahon 26.5 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chris Hodges 23.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Davian Brown 16.4 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Grayson Gaddis 0.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Utah
Added
  • Darnez Slater from Colorado St · 4.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg last season
  • London Praytor from Toledo · 2.1 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
  • James Steward no D1 minutes last season
  • Isaiah Crane no D1 minutes last season
  • Hale Hansen no D1 minutes last season
  • DJ Johnson no D1 minutes last season

Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

#14Gonzaga
Returning minutes: 13.7%Returning production: 18.5%
Lost
  • Graham Ike 27.7 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Emmanuel Innocenti 24.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Arizona St
  • Mario Saint-Supery 23.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tyon Grant-Foster 21.5 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jalen Warley 20.7 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Adam Miller 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Javon Bennett from Dayton · 34.5 mpg, 15.8 ppg last season
  • Massamba Diop from Arizona St · 29.7 mpg, 13.6 ppg last season
  • Xaivian Lee from Florida · 27.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
  • Chauncey Wiggins from Florida St · 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg last season
  • Isiah Harwell from Houston · 11.9 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
  • Luca Foster no D1 minutes last season

Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Tue, Nov 17

← Mon, Nov 16 · Wed, Nov 18 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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