CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUWF Field House, Pensacola, FL
Green Bay
Efficiency #222
2025-26: 18-15 · 13-9 conf
@
West Florida
Efficiency #352
Record unknown
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
75.1
win 64%
Projected
70.9
win 36%
No line posted yet.
Model: GB −4.2 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: West Florida 68.3, Green Bay 65.4 → 65.4 possessions
−6.2
West Florida offense vs Green Bay defense
−2.0
Green Bay offense vs West Florida defense
+5.9
Projected total
145.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
West Florida offense vs Green Bay defense
−2.0
Green Bay offense vs West Florida defense
−5.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Green Bay by 4.2
4.2
Green Bay side ◂▸ West Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −4.1 against −4.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help West Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo.

Projected possessions
65.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.9
model
Projected team totals
75.1 / 70.9
Green Bay / West Florida
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.4#360
Green Bay
68.3#183
West Florida

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Green Bay
−2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#274 of 365
Off reb %
25.1%
#339
Def reb %
70.4%
#140
Turnover %
16.0%
#138
Forced TO %
13.2%
#351
FT rate
41.6%
#36
FT allowed
37.4%
#249
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−2.4
Foul shots drawn+1.7
Foul shots allowed−0.6

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Green Bay2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Preston RuedingerGSr6'2"33-3335.311.63.85.51.554.7%41.1%4.990.8%19.6%
10C.J. O'HaraGSo6'4"33-3332.614.14.41.21.558.2%28.0%0.879.4%23.6%
13Marcus HallFJr6'6"30-3034.613.95.22.51.658.6%40.6%5.276.4%22.7%
7Justin AllenGSr6'4"32-2226.413.63.71.71.251.5%25.3%2.882.5%31.0%
23Caden WilkinsFSo6'6"33-2221.56.92.90.60.756.5%40.3%3.668.3%18.9%
22LeBron ThomasGJr6'3"32-612.04.01.90.91.048.7%11.1%0.368.4%23.0%
0Ramel BetheaFSo6'9"30-412.73.62.60.30.674.6%0.0%0.066.7%14.4%
4Mac WreckeGSo6'5"23-511.63.31.40.30.455.7%36.0%1.169.6%16.3%
20Maruan CicicCFr7'0"21-911.52.81.80.10.659.1%0.0%0.063.6%15.6%
3Keegan Van KauwenbergGFr6'3"18-09.62.10.80.60.454.4%34.6%1.4—15.1%
15Rob StroudFSr6'5"12-15.53.41.20.10.343.9%16.7%0.575.0%40.1%
1Josh HinesGJr6'2"5-011.03.81.21.20.063.3%33.3%1.80.0%16.3%
12Dontrell HewlettGSr6'4"4-011.53.81.51.50.828.9%14.3%1.850.0%33.5%
21Brady FitzgeraldGFr6'4"5-01.60.20.40.00.0——0.050.0%6.8%
11Trey SchachterGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Green BayWest Florida
Efficiency
110.7
100.8
113.0
115.4
65.4
68.3
—
—
Shooting
54.9%
—
55.0%
—
36.4%
—
77.5%
—
41.6%
—
Ball control & glass
16.0%
—
13.2%
—
25.1%
—
29.6%
—
9.4%
—
9.3%
—
Style
37.3%
—
44.9%
—
10.7%
—
54.5%
—
27.2%
—
Roster
2.82
—
6'4.7"
—
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Green Bay
Returning minutes: 97.1%Returning production: 98.1%
ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 97% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

West Florida
Returning minutes: —Returning production: —
ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

New to Division I this season -- no returning-minutes baseline.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.