CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center, Statesboro, GA
MTSU
Efficiency #167
2025-26: 17-15 · 11-10 conf
@
GA Southern
Efficiency #231
2025-26: 21-16 · 13-11 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ET
75.9
win 45%
Projected
77.5
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: GASO −1.6 · total 153.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: GA Southern 70.1, MTSU 67.2 → 69.0 possessions
+1.5
GA Southern offense vs MTSU defense
+0.6
MTSU offense vs GA Southern defense
+3.0
Projected total
153.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
GA Southern offense vs MTSU defense
+0.6
MTSU offense vs GA Southern defense
−3.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
GA Southern by 1.6
1.6
MTSU side ◂▸ GA Southern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.3 against a projected 153.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help GA Southern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, GA Southern is the faster team (71.0, #50 of 365) and MTSU the slower (66.5, #266). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.4
model
Projected team totals
75.9 / 77.5
MTSU / GA Southern
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#275
MTSU
70.1#40
GA Southern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashGA Southern
Style match: ball movement
GA Southern creates off the dribble (assists on 41.1% of its baskets); MTSU breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 41.7% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageGA Southern
Where GA Southern scores: ball control
GA Southern turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#48); MTSU forces turnovers on 15.0% of opponent possessions (#291). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMTSU
Where MTSU struggles: ball control
MTSU turns it over on 17.1% of possessions (#214); GA Southern forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#61). Expect about 18.2%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMTSU
MTSU owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 32.9% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for MTSU's offense.
ClashGA Southern
Style clash: 3-point volume
GA Southern takes 48.9% of its shots from three; MTSU runs teams off the line (35.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
MTSU has the ball
OffenseGA Southern allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #167
52.3% #230
+1.0 pt/100
17.1% #214
18.7% #61
-1.8 pt/100
30.7% #171
35.2% #342
+1.5 pt/100
32.7% #245
41.4% #316
+0.3 pt/100
70.2% #267
—
-0.2 pt/100
MTSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100
GA Southern has the ball
OffenseMTSU allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #176
51.0% #155
-0.1 pt/100
14.6% #48
15.0% #291
+2.9 pt/100
28.8% #238
28.5% #83
-1.3 pt/100
39.6% #62
35.7% #204
+0.3 pt/100
74.3% #111
—
+0.2 pt/100
GA Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
MTSUoffense vsGA Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
MTSU shoots
GA Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.3%#6559.2%#20158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.6%#18339.3%#16739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.9%#11435.9%#10338.0%
Three33.8%#18334.3%#20833.7%
GA Southernoffense vsMTSUdefense
Share of shots by zone
GA Southern shoots
MTSU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26458.9%#18858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.7%#5437.5%#12439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.4%#10033.0%#3038.0%
Three33.4%#20733.9%#18033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
MTSU
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#253 of 365
Off reb %
30.7%
#171
Def reb %
71.5%
#83
Turnover %
17.1%
#214
Forced TO %
15.0%
#291
FT rate
32.7%
#245
FT allowed
35.7%
#204
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
GA Southern
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#238
Def reb %
64.8%
#342
Turnover %
14.6%
#48
Forced TO %
18.7%
#61
FT rate
39.6%
#62
FT allowed
41.4%
#316
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−1.6

GA Southern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#163 of 365) to MTSU’s −1.4 (#253).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

MTSU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted MTSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Torey AlstonFSo6'9"32-3229.313.17.91.41.955.9%11.1%0.663.6%26.7%
22Kamari LandsGSr6'8"32-3229.213.33.72.21.449.0%32.1%5.980.8%28.4%
2Jahvin CarterGSo6'3"32-1926.810.83.23.61.647.9%33.6%4.376.2%27.4%
13Chris LoofeFJr6'11"32-3224.97.36.30.81.754.9%26.3%1.262.2%19.4%
55Sean SmithGSr6'3"32-1623.29.32.33.51.551.4%36.1%2.675.9%25.9%
0Alec OglesbyGSr6'5"30-1724.08.31.90.90.756.4%40.9%5.070.7%19.4%
11Tre GreenGSr6'3"31-1218.77.12.10.60.651.3%35.0%5.190.3%22.1%
3Luka JovanovicCFr6'11"31-013.72.23.00.40.570.9%100.0%0.053.3%9.1%
1Marcus Whitlock Jr.GSo6'3"21-011.63.91.10.50.356.0%35.8%2.575.0%18.4%
23James Dent Jr.GSr6'5"20-010.61.91.70.90.539.0%20.7%1.455.6%14.9%
5Jarred HallFJr6'9"11-08.42.51.50.60.853.8%30.8%1.2—20.8%
20Savon WykleGSr6'5"1-013.010.02.01.01.071.4%40.0%5.0—32.3%
12Brandon OloumouCJr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Charvez AmbroseGJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Jax HowardGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MTSUGA Southern
Efficiency
108.8
109.5
108.4
112.5
67.2
70.1
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
51.4%
52.3%
52.7%
33.8%
33.4%
70.2%
74.3%
32.7%
39.6%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
14.6%
15.0%
18.7%
30.7%
28.8%
28.5%
35.2%
9.3%
9.0%
8.3%
9.2%
Style
45.3%
48.9%
37.7%
38.2%
11.4%
12.4%
53.5%
41.1%
34.4%
36.5%
Roster
3.05
3.48
6'6.4"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
MTSU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted MTSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

GA Southern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.