CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC

Monmouth

Efficiency #173

2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf

Wake Forest

Efficiency #76

2025-26: 18-17 · 8-12 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · TBD

70.1

win 24%

Projected

78.3

win 76%

No line posted yet.

Model: WAKE −8.2 · total 148.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wake Forest 69.0, Monmouth 68.0 → 68.6 possessions

+0.7

Wake Forest offense vs Monmouth defense

+1.9

Monmouth offense vs Wake Forest defense

−2.4

Projected total

148.4

Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wake Forest offense vs Monmouth defense

+1.9

Monmouth offense vs Wake Forest defense

+2.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Wake Forest by 8.2

8.2

Monmouth side ◂▸ Wake Forest side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wake Forest.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wake Forest is the faster team (69.4, #120 of 365) and Monmouth the slower (67.2, #235). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.4

model

Projected team totals

70.1 / 78.3

Monmouth / Wake Forest

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.0#210

Monmouth

69.0#125

Wake Forest

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWake Forest

Where Wake Forest struggles: ball control

Wake Forest turns it over on 15.5% of possessions (#106); Monmouth forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#27). Expect about 18.0%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMonmouth

Style clash: 3-point volume

Monmouth rarely shoots threes (34.4% of its shots); Wake Forest lets opponents take 46.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Monmouth has the ball

OffenseWake Forest allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #259

51.8% #202

-1.0 pt/100

16.6% #173

17.7% #115

-0.6 pt/100

31.2% #157

33.0% #298

+1.1 pt/100

32.7% #244

35.7% #203

-0.1 pt/100

75.0% #82

—

+0.2 pt/100

Monmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Wake Forest has the ball

OffenseMonmouth allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #117

50.1% #103

+0.3 pt/100

15.5% #106

19.9% #27

-1.6 pt/100

30.1% #196

32.8% #287

+0.6 pt/100

35.2% #170

32.2% #111

-0.2 pt/100

77.6% #22

—

+0.5 pt/100

Wake Forest net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Monmouthoffense vsWake Forestdefense

Share of shots by zone

Monmouth shoots

36.9

7.6

21.0

34.5

Wake Forest allows

36.1

5.6

11.2

47.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#254	60.3%#244	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.0%#245	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.8%#153	38.5%#183	38.0%
Three	34.2%#156	32.9%#117	33.7%

Wake Forestoffense vsMonmouthdefense

Share of shots by zone

Wake Forest shoots

33.8

6.0

16.4

43.8

Monmouth allows

40.9

6.5

14.5

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#70	55.3%#67	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.9%#126	33.6%#37	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#145	37.3%#140	38.0%
Three	34.1%#166	33.9%#174	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Monmouth

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#95 of 365

Off reb %

31.2%

#157

Def reb %

67.2%

#287

Turnover %

16.6%

#173

Forced TO %

19.9%

#27

FT rate

32.7%

#244

FT allowed

32.2%

#111

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Wake Forest

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#156 of 365

Off reb %

30.1%

#196

Def reb %

67.0%

#298

Turnover %

15.5%

#106

Forced TO %

17.7%

#115

FT rate

35.2%

#170

FT allowed

35.7%

#203

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Monmouth has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#95 of 365) to Wake Forest’s +0.6 (#156).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Monmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jason Rivera-Torres	F	Jr	6'7"	34-34	35.2	15.8	8.1	2.9	1.9	46.2%	31.5%	4.9	81.0%	28.9%
13	Jack Collins	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	34.9	7.0	4.7	4.5	2.7	43.0%	28.9%	4.6	65.3%	17.2%
7	Justin Ray	G	So	6'3"	34-21	28.4	11.3	2.1	1.2	0.6	55.4%	42.0%	4.6	88.9%	21.4%
23	Cornelius Robinson III	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	24.9	8.0	3.9	1.2	1.3	46.9%	31.3%	0.5	64.2%	22.2%
15	Stefanos Spartalis	F	Fr	6'9"	32-30	23.6	10.7	5.1	0.9	1.5	46.5%	25.0%	0.5	85.1%	29.4%
4	Andrew Ball	G	Jr	6'9"	34-9	20.5	7.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	56.4%	30.5%	2.4	60.0%	22.5%
0	Dok Muordar	C	Sr	7'1"	33-3	12.4	4.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	51.0%	—	0.0	64.2%	20.4%
2	Kavion McClain	F	Sr	5'10"	11-11	35.6	17.1	2.8	5.5	3.5	58.0%	38.1%	5.7	84.6%	29.5%
3	Anthony Martinez	G	Fr	6'2"	25-5	6.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	27.5%	100.0%	0.0	42.9%	11.5%
5	Corey Miller	G	Jr	6'2"	9-1	13.4	3.7	0.9	1.0	0.3	60.9%	44.4%	1.0	83.3%	14.2%
24	Jinup Dobuol	F	So	6'8"	19-0	6.1	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.3	58.2%	44.0%	1.3	50.0%	28.0%
8	O'Marion Harvey	F	Fr	6'7"	14-0	3.8	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.4	80.0%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	13.5%
20	Zubayr Griffin	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	3.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.2	55.0%	20.0%	0.5	—	18.6%
9	Lucas Orchard	G	So	6'3"	9-0	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	18.6%
42	Quinn Peters	F	Jr	6'6"	9-0	2.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.3%
10	Jack Leahy	G	Jr	6'5"	9-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wake Forest2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Juke Harris	G	So	6'7"	35-35	35.2	21.4	6.5	1.9	1.7	52.7%	33.2%	7.5	78.3%	33.1%
6	Myles Colvin	G	Jr	6'5"	35-24	27.2	11.6	4.4	1.4	1.7	50.0%	36.0%	4.7	87.0%	25.5%
0	Omaha Biliew	F	Jr	6'8"	35-24	20.2	6.3	2.4	0.5	0.7	56.7%	36.8%	2.5	79.4%	16.7%
8	Mekhi Mason	G	Sr	6'5"	34-12	20.1	7.4	2.6	1.4	1.0	50.0%	33.8%	4.0	67.7%	22.9%
1	Nate Calmese	G	Sr	6'2"	26-23	24.7	10.3	1.9	4.5	1.8	55.5%	39.8%	4.0	77.4%	25.0%
10	Sebastian Akins	G	So	6'2"	35-8	15.1	5.3	1.5	1.9	1.2	43.3%	18.0%	1.4	77.8%	24.8%
7	Isaac Carr	G	Fr	6'4"	23-4	12.8	2.5	1.9	1.3	0.7	47.0%	31.3%	0.7	62.5%	15.0%
11	Marqus Marion	F	So	6'9"	20-0	12.1	1.4	2.3	0.7	0.3	42.0%	9.1%	0.6	61.5%	8.3%
23	Jaylen Cross	F	Fr	6'4"	12-0	5.5	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.5	50.0%	60.0%	0.4	71.4%	23.7%
9	Vincent Ricchiuti	F	Jr	6'6"	4-0	2.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	34.8%
4	Will Underwood	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	1.8	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
30	Anson Beard Jr.	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.2%
44	Owen Kmety	F	Jr	6'7"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	28.9%
33	Dimitrije Kovacevic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Monmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jason Rivera-Torres	F	Jr	6'7"	34-34	35.2	15.8	8.1	2.9	1.9	46.2%	31.5%	4.9	81.0%	28.9%
13	Jack Collins	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	34.9	7.0	4.7	4.5	2.7	43.0%	28.9%	4.6	65.3%	17.2%
7	Justin Ray	G	So	6'3"	34-21	28.4	11.3	2.1	1.2	0.6	55.4%	42.0%	4.6	88.9%	21.4%
23	Cornelius Robinson III	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	24.9	8.0	3.9	1.2	1.3	46.9%	31.3%	0.5	64.2%	22.2%
15	Stefanos Spartalis	F	Fr	6'9"	32-30	23.6	10.7	5.1	0.9	1.5	46.5%	25.0%	0.5	85.1%	29.4%
4	Andrew Ball	G	Jr	6'9"	34-9	20.5	7.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	56.4%	30.5%	2.4	60.0%	22.5%
0	Dok Muordar	C	Sr	7'1"	33-3	12.4	4.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	51.0%	—	0.0	64.2%	20.4%
2	Kavion McClain	F	Sr	5'10"	11-11	35.6	17.1	2.8	5.5	3.5	58.0%	38.1%	5.7	84.6%	29.5%
3	Anthony Martinez	G	Fr	6'2"	25-5	6.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	27.5%	100.0%	0.0	42.9%	11.5%
5	Corey Miller	G	Jr	6'2"	9-1	13.4	3.7	0.9	1.0	0.3	60.9%	44.4%	1.0	83.3%	14.2%
24	Jinup Dobuol	F	So	6'8"	19-0	6.1	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.3	58.2%	44.0%	1.3	50.0%	28.0%
8	O'Marion Harvey	F	Fr	6'7"	14-0	3.8	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.4	80.0%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	13.5%
20	Zubayr Griffin	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	3.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.2	55.0%	20.0%	0.5	—	18.6%
9	Lucas Orchard	G	So	6'3"	9-0	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	18.6%
42	Quinn Peters	F	Jr	6'6"	9-0	2.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.3%
10	Jack Leahy	G	Jr	6'5"	9-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Monmouth

Against the spread

Season

17-14-2

Home

5-6-2

Road

9-6

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +4.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-17

Home

5-8

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	HofstraAdjEM #69	N	L 69–75	+4.0	L−2.0	135.0	O144	103.9	113.0	66.4
Mar 9	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	W 74–64	−1.5	W+8.5	152.0	U138	110.1	95.2	67.2
Mar 8	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	W 65–57	−4.0	W+4.0	137.5	U122	100.6	88.2	64.6
Mar 3	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 89–83	−4.0	W+2.0	149.5	O172	132.9	123.9	67.0
Feb 28	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 73–57	−3.5	W+12.5	153.0	U130	115.7	90.3	63.1
Feb 26	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	H	W 82–69	−4.5	W+8.5	146.5	O151	121.4	102.2	67.5
Feb 21	CharlestonAdjEM #165	A	L 63–74	+5.0	L−6.0	150.0	U137	93.5	109.9	67.4
Feb 19	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	145.0	O148	95.8	109.7	72.0
Feb 15	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	W 72–71	−1.0	P0.0	137.5	O143	110.7	109.1	65.0
Feb 12	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	W 93–73	+1.0	W+21.0	134.0	O166	129.7	101.8	71.7

Wake Forest

Against the spread

Season

16-18-1

Home

8-11-1

Road

4-5

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15

Home

14-6

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.3

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 75–78	−8.0	L−11.0	152.5	O153	108.0	112.3	69.5
Mar 18	NavyAdjEM #104	H	W 82–72	−10.0	P0.0	147.5	O154	124.1	109.0	66.1
Mar 11	ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	L 62–71	+5.5	L−3.5	142.0	U133	103.9	119.0	59.6
Mar 10	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	N	W 95–89 OT	−1.0	W+5.0	151.5	O184	126.6	118.6	75.0
Mar 7	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	H	W 80–73	−6.0	W+1.0	154.0	U153	109.6	100.1	73.0
Mar 3	#13VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 70–75	+14.0	W+9.0	149.5	U145	102.9	110.3	68.0
Feb 28	SyracuseAdjEM #85	H	W 88–83	−4.0	W+1.0	152.0	O171	135.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 25	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	A	L 67–68	−4.0	L−5.0	144.5	U135	105.3	106.9	63.6
Feb 21	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	A	L 63–82	+4.0	L−15.0	148.5	U145	104.0	135.3	60.6
Feb 18	ClemsonAdjEM #35	H	W 85–77	+4.0	W+12.0	140.0	O162	127.6	115.6	66.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MonmouthWake Forest

Efficiency

106.8

113.1

106.6

106.7

68.0

69.0

—

Shooting

49.6%

52.7%

48.7%

53.9%

34.2%

34.1%

75.0%

77.6%

32.7%

35.2%

Ball control & glass

16.6%

15.5%

19.9%

17.7%

31.2%

30.1%

32.8%

33.0%

9.1%

8.9%

8.7%

8.3%

Style

34.4%

43.6%

42.9%

39.9%

16.0%

11.1%

53.9%

53.5%

25.7%

32.7%

Roster

2.82

2.74

6'6.2"

6'5.3"

—

75.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Monmouth

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Wake Forest

Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 74.4%

Lost

Tre'Von Spillers 29.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cooper Schwieger 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Dimitrije Kovacevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.