CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMaples Pavilion, Stanford, CA
UC Irvine
Efficiency #105
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-6 conf
@
Stanford
Efficiency #77
2025-26: 20-13 · 9-10 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
68.6
win 31%
Projected
74.5
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: STAN −5.9 · total 143.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Stanford 68.1, UC Irvine 68.9 → 68.7 possessions
+0.9
Stanford offense vs UC Irvine defense
−2.1
UC Irvine offense vs Stanford defense
−4.0
Projected total
143.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Stanford offense vs UC Irvine defense
−2.1
UC Irvine offense vs Stanford defense
+4.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Stanford by 5.9
5.9
UC Irvine side ◂▸ Stanford side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Stanford.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Irvine is the faster team (70.7, #63 of 365) and Stanford the slower (67.9, #209). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.0
model
Projected team totals
68.6 / 74.5
UC Irvine / Stanford
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#129
UC Irvine
68.1#201
Stanford

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashUC Irvine
Style match: 3-point volume
UC Irvine rarely shoots threes (28.0% of its shots); Stanford runs teams off the line (33.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 26.4% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageStanford
Where Stanford struggles: shooting
Stanford shoots an effective 51.5% (#173); UC Irvine allows 45.9% (#9). Expect about 48.6%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseUC Irvine
UC Irvine's shot-blocking
UC Irvine ranks #11 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.2% of Stanford's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageUC Irvine
Where UC Irvine struggles: shooting
UC Irvine shoots an effective 49.5% (#268); Stanford allows 51.0% (#158). Expect about 50.1%, 1.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversUC Irvine
UC Irvine turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against UC Irvine's offense.
UC Irvine has the ball
OffenseStanford allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #268
51.0% #158
-1.7 pt/100
17.8% #258
18.0% #97
-1.7 pt/100
31.0% #166
29.8% #149
+0.0 pt/100
35.9% #152
40.3% #305
+0.4 pt/100
69.7% #276
—
-0.2 pt/100
UC Irvine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Stanford has the ball
OffenseUC Irvine allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #173
45.9% #9
-3.7 pt/100
15.5% #103
18.8% #59
-0.7 pt/100
32.5% #109
31.2% #213
+1.1 pt/100
35.5% #165
26.7% #18
-0.6 pt/100
73.2% #163
—
+0.1 pt/100
Stanford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UC Irvineoffense vsStanforddefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Irvine shoots
Stanford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.5%#31258.2%#15358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.2%#3838.8%#15539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21339.9%#24238.0%
Three33.6%#19132.9%#11833.7%
Stanfordoffense vsUC Irvinedefense
Share of shots by zone
Stanford shoots
UC Irvine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.8%#32146.5%#158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.0%#19338.0%#13539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.1%#5335.6%#9538.0%
Three35.2%#10333.7%#16733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UC Irvine
+3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#52 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#166
Def reb %
68.8%
#213
Turnover %
17.8%
#258
Forced TO %
18.8%
#59
FT rate
35.9%
#152
FT allowed
26.7%
#18
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.2
Stanford
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#109
Def reb %
70.2%
#149
Turnover %
15.5%
#103
Forced TO %
18.0%
#97
FT rate
35.5%
#165
FT allowed
40.3%
#305
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.3

UC Irvine has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.1 (#52 of 365) to Stanford’s +1.5 (#121).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC Irvine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Irvine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Jurian DixonGSo6'4"35-3530.415.93.62.51.550.5%38.5%5.279.5%29.9%
13Derin SaranGSo6'5"35-3529.711.55.33.42.243.6%26.5%2.868.5%27.4%
14Kyle EvansFSr6'10"35-3528.612.18.70.90.962.3%20.0%0.378.8%19.9%
6Tama IsaacGFr6'2"35-3526.86.33.23.82.143.9%31.9%2.168.4%17.8%
4Andre HenryGSr6'4"31-022.59.92.51.10.952.5%36.4%3.582.1%24.3%
2Harrison CarringtonFJr6'7"35-117.08.53.80.90.759.4%36.4%0.367.3%24.6%
9Jovan Jester Jr.GFr6'4"35-016.16.52.82.32.151.2%37.5%1.867.5%27.6%
3Elijah CholFJr7'0"26-1716.64.63.30.60.451.5%33.3%1.046.3%16.8%
43Akiva McBirney-GriffinFJr6'9"34-169.92.42.10.40.840.9%0.0%0.363.4%18.5%
23Nes EmenekeFFr6'10"35-08.11.32.40.20.343.6%—0.035.7%12.2%
5Ben EgboGSo6'4"17-16.01.00.90.50.457.1%0.0%0.125.0%11.1%
27Tishan AhirGSo6'0"9-02.31.20.00.00.141.7%28.6%0.850.0%33.0%
0Bryce GoldmanGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Joshua PalmerGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Langston RedfieldGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Luke IsaakGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
55Mason HodgesFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Torian LeeGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UC IrvineStanford
Efficiency
105.1
112.4
101.6
106.0
68.9
68.1
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
51.5%
49.1%
50.5%
33.6%
35.2%
69.7%
73.2%
35.9%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
15.5%
18.8%
18.0%
31.0%
32.5%
31.2%
29.8%
9.1%
7.3%
9.1%
9.5%
Style
28.0%
44.0%
48.9%
40.3%
15.0%
12.9%
55.1%
45.8%
34.8%
33.7%
Roster
2.42
3.04
6'5.9"
6'6.2"
—
83.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UC Irvine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Irvine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Stanford
Returning minutes: 83.6%Returning production: 73.5%
Lost
  • Ebuka Okorie 33.0 mpg, 21.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Myles Jones no D1 minutes last season
  • Anthony Batson Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.