CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMullins Center, Amherst, MA

Bryant

Efficiency #347

2025-26: 9-22 · 5-12 conf

UMass

Efficiency #184

2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf

Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ET

66.9

win 14%

Projected

79.2

win 86%

No line posted yet.

Model: MASS −12.3 · total 146.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UMass 70.2, Bryant 66.3 → 68.1 possessions

−0.4

UMass offense vs Bryant defense

+3.3

Bryant offense vs UMass defense

−5.1

Projected total

146.1

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UMass offense vs Bryant defense

+3.3

Bryant offense vs UMass defense

+5.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UMass by 12.3

12.3

Bryant side ◂▸ UMass side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.0 against a projected 146.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UMass.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass is the faster team (71.0, #52 of 365) and Bryant the slower (64.4, #347). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.1

model

Projected team totals

66.9 / 79.2

Bryant / UMass

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.3#330

Bryant

70.2#36

UMass

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

UMass averages 71.0 possessions per 40, Bryant 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashBryant

Style match: 3-point volume

Bryant takes 47.9% of its shots from three; UMass lets opponents take 42.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.3% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageUMass

Where UMass scores: shooting

UMass shoots an effective 53.1% (#99); Bryant allows 52.7% (#257). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageBryant

Where Bryant struggles: ball control

Bryant turns it over on 20.2% of possessions (#351); UMass forces turnovers on 16.8% of opponent possessions (#167). Expect about 18.8%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassBryant

Bryant gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.5% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Bryant's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bryant, Bryant's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bryant at about 48.3% of its shots from three, UMass about 33.8%.

Bryant has the ball

OffenseUMass allowsvs D1 avg

46.9% #340

52.9% #262

-2.5 pt/100

20.2% #351

16.8% #167

-2.5 pt/100

27.7% #276

26.1% #20

-2.4 pt/100

29.4% #322

44.6% #348

+0.4 pt/100

76.0% #53

—

+0.3 pt/100

Bryant net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

UMass has the ball

OffenseBryant allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #99

52.7% #257

+2.5 pt/100

17.8% #263

14.6% #316

+1.0 pt/100

33.3% #80

31.0% #203

+1.4 pt/100

37.0% #130

33.5% #141

+0.0 pt/100

67.3% #339

—

-0.4 pt/100

UMass net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bryantoffense vsUMassdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bryant shoots

38.1

3.2

11.2

47.6

UMass allows

38.1

6.4

13.3

42.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#283	63.2%#329	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#277	45.5%#313	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.8%#363	37.6%#149	38.0%
Three	30.0%#343	33.0%#121	33.7%

UMassoffense vsBryantdefense

Share of shots by zone

UMass shoots

39.4

8.9

16.3

35.4

Bryant allows

45.4

5.1

13.5

36.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#127	57.5%#128	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.8%#53	44.0%#267	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#68	34.7%#65	38.0%
Three	35.2%#100	36.3%#320	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bryant

−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#354 of 365

Off reb %

27.7%

#276

Def reb %

69.0%

#203

Turnover %

20.2%

#351

Forced TO %

14.6%

#316

FT rate

29.4%

#322

FT allowed

33.5%

#141

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−2.4

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.4

UMass

−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#184 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#80

Def reb %

73.9%

#20

Turnover %

17.8%

#263

Forced TO %

16.8%

#167

FT rate

37.0%

#130

FT allowed

44.6%

#348

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed−2.4

UMass has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#184 of 365) to Bryant’s −5.8 (#354).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UMass2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Marcus Banks Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.0	16.7	2.6	1.8	1.3	54.1%	37.8%	9.0	83.3%	27.3%
3	Leonardo Bettiol	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	28.7	18.1	7.8	2.1	2.7	61.2%	33.3%	0.1	70.3%	33.0%
0	Danny Carbuccia	G	Fr	5'11"	33-27	27.6	6.8	1.8	6.3	1.9	46.7%	24.6%	1.7	38.8%	19.1%
11	Jayden Ndjigue	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	26.8	6.5	5.4	1.9	1.5	52.7%	23.1%	0.8	70.5%	15.0%
1	Daniel Hankins-Sanford	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	28.6	11.3	7.1	1.4	1.3	48.4%	25.5%	1.7	62.2%	24.4%
2	Dwayne Wimbley Jr.	F	Fr	6'6"	33-2	14.0	2.3	2.2	0.5	0.9	34.5%	18.4%	1.2	56.3%	16.2%
13	Luka Damjanac	F	So	6'10"	29-0	10.4	2.5	2.6	0.7	0.6	62.2%	27.3%	0.4	64.7%	13.7%
4	Isaiah Placide	G	Sr	6'4"	27-0	9.2	4.0	1.0	0.3	0.3	53.5%	41.7%	2.2	69.2%	24.1%
25	Dimitri Clerc	F	Jr	6'10"	25-1	9.0	3.4	2.8	0.2	0.8	61.8%	—	0.0	42.1%	22.6%
10	Donovan Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	5.5	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.4	29.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	17.5%
22	Charles Outlaw	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	3.5	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	40.0%	27.8%
44	Rollie Castineyra	G	So	6'2"	4-0	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	14.4%
7	Bilal Osman	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Josh Engel	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bryant

Against the spread

Season

11-18

Home

6-5

Road

5-13

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

7-4

Road

4-14

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +10.6

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 57–77	+12.0	L−8.0	131.5	O134	95.9	129.5	59.5
Mar 3	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	L 83–88 2OT	+1.0	L−4.0	135.5	O171	106.3	112.7	78.1
Feb 28	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 69–52	+1.5	W+18.5	138.5	U121	107.3	80.9	64.3
Feb 26	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 58–70	+10.0	L−2.0	138.0	U128	91.7	110.7	63.3
Feb 19	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	L 67–79	−5.5	L−17.5	135.0	O146	110.6	130.4	60.6
Feb 14	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 63–90	+12.5	L−14.5	133.0	O153	94.4	134.8	66.8
Feb 12	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 69–88	+4.5	L−14.5	142.0	O157	105.6	134.7	65.3
Feb 7	MaineAdjEM #335	H	W 73–67	−2.5	W+3.5	128.0	O140	107.7	98.8	67.8
Feb 5	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	L 63–65	−1.0	L−3.0	134.0	U128	104.3	107.7	60.4
Jan 31	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 92–84	−1.0	W+7.0	132.5	O176	124.4	113.6	73.9

UMass

Against the spread

Season

13-19

Home

5-10

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −2.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-12

Home

9-6

Road

7-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	ToledoAdjEM #115	N	L 67–77	+3.0	L−7.0	158.0	U144	95.3	109.5	70.3
Mar 12	#20Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	W 87–83	+8.0	W+12.0	163.5	O170	126.0	120.2	69.0
Mar 3	OhioAdjEM #233	H	W 94–82	−1.5	W+10.5	156.5	O176	122.6	106.9	76.7
Feb 28	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	A	L 62–81	+4.0	L−15.0	151.5	U143	94.5	123.5	65.6
Feb 24	Ball StateAdjEM #295	A	L 73–74 OT	−4.5	L−5.5	143.5	O147	99.3	100.6	73.5
Feb 21	BuffaloAdjEM #186	H	L 82–86 OT	−7.5	L−11.5	154.0	O168	113.3	118.9	72.3
Feb 17	#22Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 77–86	+3.0	L−6.0	163.5	U163	109.0	121.7	70.6
Feb 13	AkronAdjEM #48	A	L 92–99	+13.0	W+6.0	162.5	O191	117.6	126.5	78.3
Feb 7	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	L 91–94 3OT	−2.5	L−5.5	148.5	O185	108.6	112.2	83.8
Feb 3	C MichiganAdjEM #283	H	W 95–89	−11.5	L−5.5	152.5	O184	136.0	127.4	69.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BryantUMass

Efficiency

100.5

108.4

113.4

109.1

66.3

70.2

—

Shooting

46.9%

53.1%

48.7%

53.2%

30.0%

35.2%

76.0%

67.3%

29.4%

37.0%

Ball control & glass

20.2%

17.8%

14.6%

16.8%

27.7%

33.3%

31.0%

26.1%

12.2%

10.2%

8.7%

7.6%

Style

47.9%

35.4%

39.2%

46.0%

7.9%

12.9%

53.1%

58.4%

28.4%

29.1%

Roster

2.17

3.03

6'7.1"

6'5.1"

—

89.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bryant

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UMass

Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 88.2%

Lost

K'Jei Parker 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Bilal Osman no D1 minutes last season
Josh Engel no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.