CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteMadison Square Garden, New York, NYBad Boy Mowers Series
Arkansas
Efficiency #19
2025-26: 28-9 · 16-5 conf
vs
Indiana
Efficiency #45
2025-26: 18-14 · 9-12 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
82.0
win 62%
Projected
78.4
win 38%
No line posted yet.
Model: ARK −3.7 · total 160.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Indiana 67.6, Arkansas 70.9 → 70.2 possessions
+4.1
Indiana offense vs Arkansas defense
+2.2
Arkansas offense vs Indiana defense
+5.8
Projected total
160.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Indiana offense vs Arkansas defense
+2.2
Arkansas offense vs Indiana defense
−5.8
Arkansas by 3.7
3.7
Arkansas side ◂▸ Indiana side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 160.3 against a projected 160.4, and the margin steps add to −3.6 against −3.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Indiana.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arkansas is the faster team (72.8, #13 of 365) and Indiana the slower (66.6, #263). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
160.4
model
Projected team totals
82.0 / 78.4
Arkansas / Indiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#17
Arkansas
67.6#244
Indiana
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageArkansas
Where Arkansas scores: ball control
Arkansas turns it over on 12.2% of possessions (#1); Indiana forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#280). Expect about 13.1%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIndiana
Where Indiana scores: shooting
Indiana shoots an effective 56.1% (#22); Arkansas allows 51.8% (#201). Expect about 54.3%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Indiana averages 66.6 possessions per 40, Arkansas 72.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseArkansas
Arkansas's shot-blocking
Arkansas ranks #25 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Indiana's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
TurnoversIndiana
Indiana protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Indiana's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Arkansas) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Arkansas at about 32.6% of its shots from three, Indiana about 47.5%.
Arkansas has the ball
OffenseIndiana allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #16
49.0% #68
+2.5 pt/100
12.2% #1
15.1% #280
+4.6 pt/100
32.0% #121
29.3% #122
+0.3 pt/100
35.9% #155
37.0% #236
+0.2 pt/100
75.1% #77
—
+0.2 pt/100
Arkansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100
Indiana has the ball
OffenseArkansas allowsvs D1 avg
56.1% #22
51.8% #201
+4.4 pt/100
15.1% #71
15.6% #246
+2.1 pt/100
26.9% #300
30.9% #197
-1.4 pt/100
35.0% #179
31.2% #87
-0.3 pt/100
78.0% #18
—
+0.5 pt/100
Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersArkansasoffense vsIndianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas shoots
41.8
6.3
19.1
32.8
Indiana allows
34.1
6.1
22.8
37.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#10 | 56.5%#101 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.3%#325 | 44.2%#271 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.3%#258 | 38.8%#191 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.2%#16 | 33.1%#128 | 33.7% |
Indianaoffense vsArkansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Indiana shoots
35.3
3.1
10.6
51.0
Arkansas allows
40.1
6.9
15.3
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.4%#18 | 62.6%#313 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.9%#24 | 45.4%#308 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.2%#22 | 34.7%#66 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#138 | 31.8%#54 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersArkansas
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#35 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#121
Def reb %
69.1%
#197
Turnover %
12.2%
#1
Forced TO %
15.6%
#246
FT rate
35.9%
#155
FT allowed
31.2%
#87
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+3.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Indiana
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#238 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#300
Def reb %
70.7%
#122
Turnover %
15.1%
#71
Forced TO %
15.1%
#280
FT rate
35.0%
#179
FT allowed
37.0%
#236
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Arkansas has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#35 of 365) to Indiana’s −1.1 (#238).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Billy Richmond III | G | Jr | 6'7" | 37-19 | 27.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 25.9% | 1.6 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Wilkinsonat Georgia | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-21 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 50.6% | 35.7% | 7.1 | 78.6% | 36.1% | |
| 21 | Cooper Bowserat Furman | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-22 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 62.2% | 21.4% | |
| 30 | Isaiah Sealy | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Amere Brown | G | So | 5'9" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 26.3% | |
| 4 | Ayden Kelley | G | Jr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 14.4% | |
| 99 | Paulo Semedo | F | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Abdou Toure | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Caleb Ourigou | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Davion Thompson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Ilia Frolov | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | JJ Andrews | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Maper Maker | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Miikka Muurinen | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Cooper Bowser (from Furman), Jeremiah Wilkinson (from Georgia)
Indiana2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Conor Enright | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 30.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 51.2% | 34.7% | 2.3 | 79.3% | 10.9% | |
| 6 | Tayton Conerway | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-19 | 21.3 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 61.1% | 29.0% | 2.1 | 73.7% | 26.4% | |
| 11 | Trent Sisley | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 49.1% | 27.1% | 1.6 | 53.8% | 20.3% | |
| 0 | Jasai Miles | G | Jr | 6'6" | 25-0 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 41.5% | 24.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 13 | Aleksa Ristic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 30 | Ian Stephens | G | Jr | 6'5" | 12-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 5.1% | |
| 21 | Drew Snively | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 20.0% | |
| 18 | Tryce Grensing | G | Fr | 6'0" | 10-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 3.6% | |
| 15 | Andrej Acimovic | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Jason Drake | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jordan Rayford | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Josh Harris | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Billy Richmond III | G | Jr | 6'7" | 37-19 | 27.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 25.9% | 1.6 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Wilkinsonat Georgia | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-21 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 50.6% | 35.7% | 7.1 | 78.6% | 36.1% | |
| 21 | Cooper Bowserat Furman | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-22 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 62.2% | 21.4% | |
| 30 | Isaiah Sealy | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Amere Brown | G | So | 5'9" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 26.3% | |
| 4 | Ayden Kelley | G | Jr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 14.4% | |
| 99 | Paulo Semedo | F | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Abdou Toure | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Caleb Ourigou | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Davion Thompson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Ilia Frolov | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | JJ Andrews | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Maper Maker | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Miikka Muurinen | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Cooper Bowser (from Furman), Jeremiah Wilkinson (from Georgia)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Arkansas
Against the spread
Season
23-14
Home
13-5
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
21-15-1
Home
11-6-1
Road
4-6
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +14.2
Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | #1Arizona | N | L 88–109 | +8.0 | L−13.0 | 165.5 | O197 | 110.1 | 136.4 | 79.9 |
| Mar 21 | #12High Point | N | W 94–88 | −12.0 | L−6.0 | 170.5 | O182 | 121.5 | 113.8 | 77.4 |
| Mar 19 | #13Hawai'i | N | W 97–78 | −15.0 | W+4.0 | 158.0 | O175 | 126.5 | 101.8 | 76.7 |
| Mar 15 | #22Vanderbilt | N | W 86–75 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | U161 | 122.6 | 107.0 | 70.1 |
| Mar 14 | Ole Miss | N | W 93–90 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 158.5 | O183 | 119.7 | 115.8 | 77.7 |
| Mar 13 | Oklahoma | N | W 82–79 | −6.0 | L−3.0 | 167.0 | U161 | 117.2 | 112.9 | 70.0 |
| Mar 7 | Missouri | A | W 88–84 OT | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 161.5 | O172 | 115.1 | 109.9 | 76.4 |
| Mar 4 | Texas | H | W 105–85 | −7.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | O190 | 132.8 | 107.5 | 79.0 |
| Feb 28 | #7Florida | A | L 77–111 | +10.5 | L−23.5 | 170.0 | O188 | 95.3 | 137.4 | 80.8 |
| Feb 25 | Texas A&M | H | W 99–84 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 170.0 | O183 | 128.1 | 108.7 | 77.3 |
Indiana
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
9-9
Road
4-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −5.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
7-11
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Northwestern | N | L 61–74 | −6.0 | L−19.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 100.5 | 121.9 | 60.7 |
| Mar 7 | Ohio State | A | L 78–91 | +4.0 | L−9.0 | 148.0 | O169 | 114.8 | 134.0 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Minnesota | H | W 77–47 | −6.5 | W+23.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 125.7 | 76.7 | 61.3 |
| Mar 1 | #13Michigan St | H | L 64–77 | +3.0 | L−10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 106.5 | 128.1 | 60.1 |
| Feb 24 | Northwestern | H | L 68–72 | −8.5 | L−12.5 | 146.0 | U140 | 111.3 | 117.8 | 61.1 |
| Feb 20 | #7Purdue | A | L 64–93 | +11.5 | L−17.5 | 150.0 | O157 | 100.8 | 146.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 15 | #8Illinois | A | L 51–71 | +9.0 | L−11.0 | 153.5 | U122 | 90.1 | 125.5 | 56.6 |
| Feb 9 | Oregon | H | W 92–74 | −11.0 | W+7.0 | 143.5 | O166 | 138.7 | 111.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Wisconsin | H | W 78–77 OT | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 156.0 | U155 | 114.0 | 112.6 | 68.4 |
| Feb 3 | USC | A | L 75–81 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 152.5 | O156 | 103.2 | 111.5 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeArkansasIndiana
Efficiency
120.3
115.2
104.8
105.0
70.9
67.6
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
56.1%
56.0%
60.3%
38.2%
34.7%
75.1%
78.0%
35.9%
35.0%
Ball control & glass
12.2%
15.1%
15.6%
15.1%
32.0%
26.9%
30.9%
29.3%
6.7%
8.2%
6.4%
10.1%
Style
33.0%
50.5%
47.6%
38.4%
20.9%
9.3%
53.1%
62.5%
28.5%
27.0%
Roster
3.22
3.29
6'6.3"
6'3.4"
15.7%
35.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputArkansas
Returning minutes: 15.7%Returning production: 15.1%
Lost
- Darius Acuff Jr. 34.3 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trevon Brazile 30.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Meleek Thomas 30.5 mpg, 15.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- D.J. Wagner 22.3 mpg, 7.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Malique Ewin 21.0 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Pringle 17.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jeremiah Wilkinson from Georgia · 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
- Cooper Bowser from Furman · 21.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Miikka Muurinen no D1 minutes last season
- Caleb Ourigou no D1 minutes last season
- Maper Maker no D1 minutes last season
- Paulo Semedo no D1 minutes last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Indiana
Returning minutes: 35.5%Returning production: 28.7%
Lost
- Tucker DeVries 34.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lamar Wilkerson 34.0 mpg, 20.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Dorn 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Sam Alexis 21.3 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Reed Bailey 19.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Josh Harris no D1 minutes last season
- Jason Drake no D1 minutes last season
- Andrej Acimovic no D1 minutes last season
- Jordan Rayford no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.