CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceYuengling Center, Tampa, FL
Tennessee St
Efficiency #155
2025-26: 23-10 · 17-5 conf
@
South Florida
Efficiency #36
2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
74.0
win 16%
Projected
85.7
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: USF −11.8 · total 159.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: South Florida 71.0, Tennessee St 70.3 → 73.0 possessions
+10.1
South Florida offense vs Tennessee St defense
+4.4
Tennessee St offense vs South Florida defense
−3.1
Projected total
159.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
South Florida offense vs Tennessee St defense
+4.4
Tennessee St offense vs South Florida defense
+3.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
South Florida by 11.8
11.8
Tennessee St side ◂▸ South Florida side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 159.6 against a projected 159.7, and the margin steps add to +11.7 against +11.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Florida.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and Tennessee St the slower (70.8, #61). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
159.7
model
Projected team totals
74.0 / 85.7
Tennessee St / South Florida
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.3#32
Tennessee St
71.0#15
South Florida
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
South Florida averages 73.0 possessions per 40, Tennessee St 70.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSouth Florida
Where South Florida scores: the offensive glass
South Florida rebounds 38.1% of its own misses (#7); Tennessee St lets opponents grab 30.6% of their own misses (#184). Expect about 35.9%, 5.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTennessee St
Where Tennessee St struggles: shooting
Tennessee St shoots an effective 50.0% (#234); South Florida allows 48.8% (#58). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassTennessee St
Tennessee St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.2% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Tennessee St's offense.
DefenseSouth Florida
South Florida's ball-hawking
South Florida ranks #21 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of Tennessee St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
TurnoversTennessee St
Tennessee St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Tennessee St's offense.
Tennessee St has the ball
OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #234
48.8% #58
-2.8 pt/100
16.7% #176
19.1% #42
-1.8 pt/100
34.8% #53
31.9% #252
+2.3 pt/100
33.4% #228
39.1% #287
+0.2 pt/100
76.0% #52
—
+0.3 pt/100
Tennessee St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100
South Florida has the ball
OffenseTennessee St allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #209
51.6% #190
-0.3 pt/100
15.1% #74
19.8% #28
-1.2 pt/100
38.1% #7
30.6% #184
+3.3 pt/100
40.4% #55
41.4% #317
+0.8 pt/100
74.6% #101
—
+0.2 pt/100
South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersTennessee Stoffense vsSouth Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Tennessee St shoots
40.8
6.0
23.8
29.5
South Florida allows
35.9
8.0
16.8
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#151 | 54.7%#57 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.0%#303 | 34.5%#52 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#256 | 34.8%#69 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#208 | 34.5%#218 | 33.7% |
South Floridaoffense vsTennessee Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
South Florida shoots
46.7
5.1
4.1
44.1
Tennessee St allows
44.2
6.1
14.2
35.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.0%#299 | 56.3%#93 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.8%#227 | 42.9%#247 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#365 | 40.7%#264 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.5%#255 | 34.0%#183 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersTennessee St
+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#115 of 365
Off reb %
34.8%
#53
Def reb %
69.4%
#184
Turnover %
16.7%
#176
Forced TO %
19.8%
#28
FT rate
33.4%
#228
FT allowed
41.4%
#317
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed−1.6
South Florida
+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365
Off reb %
38.1%
#7
Def reb %
68.1%
#252
Turnover %
15.1%
#74
Forced TO %
19.1%
#42
FT rate
40.4%
#55
FT allowed
39.1%
#287
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to Tennessee St’s +1.6 (#115).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Tennessee St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dante Harris | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 32.3 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 43.9% | 30.0% | 1.5 | 72.6% | 24.1% | |
| 2 | Travis Harper II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 33-32 | 31.3 | 17.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 57.4% | 39.1% | 6.3 | 85.7% | 27.2% | |
| 12 | Carlous Williams | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-9 | 19.4 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 50.7% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 76.7% | 18.0% | |
| 3 | Khalil London | G | So | 6'3" | 24-0 | 15.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 39.7% | 23.6% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 30.1% | |
| 7 | Jabrion Spikes | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-0 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 53.3% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 16.7% | |
| 23 | Kavien Jones | F | Fr | 6'7" | 30-0 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 60.3% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 44.4% | 13.0% | |
| 1 | Damon Howard Jr. | G | Fr | 6'1" | 21-0 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 32.2% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 77.8% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | JC Brooks | F | So | 6'10" | 18-1 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 47.8% | 28.6% | 0.4 | 60.0% | 14.4% | |
| 31 | Alex Garcia | F | Jr | 6'9" | 10-0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 43.8% | 16.7% | 0.6 | — | 23.2% | |
| 20 | Jayden Jones | G | Fr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 32.6% | |
| 21 | Jean Yvens Lafleur | F | Jr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 13.0% | |
| 5 | Maddux Bodenhamer | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Ogien Ayo | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
South Florida2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wes Enis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 34.0 | 16.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.1% | 35.2% | 9.5 | 81.4% | 27.1% | |
| 5 | Joseph Pinion | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 30.2 | 14.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 37.8% | 8.6 | 78.7% | 27.2% | |
| 8 | Josh Omojafo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-32 | 27.2 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 50.2% | 29.7% | 2.2 | 78.2% | 21.5% | |
| 11 | CJ Brown | G | So | 6'2" | 34-34 | 26.6 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 40.7% | 24.2% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 27.4% | |
| 3 | Isaiah Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 53.0% | 31.4% | 2.5 | 82.9% | 14.6% | |
| 6 | Daimion Collins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-1 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 59.9% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 21 | Adriel Nyorha | G | Fr | 6'5" | 26-2 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 44.8% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 67.9% | 25.3% | |
| 9 | Gavin Hightower | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 67.4% | 25.5% | |
| 4 | Devin Haid | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 31.4% | 1.5 | 93.3% | 18.5% | |
| 7 | Caleb Sanders | F | Fr | 6'6" | 10-2 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 66.7% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | Xavier Brown | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 15 | Onyx Nnani | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | De'Ante Green | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Tennessee St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dante Harris | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 32.3 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 43.9% | 30.0% | 1.5 | 72.6% | 24.1% | |
| 2 | Travis Harper II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 33-32 | 31.3 | 17.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 57.4% | 39.1% | 6.3 | 85.7% | 27.2% | |
| 12 | Carlous Williams | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-9 | 19.4 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 50.7% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 76.7% | 18.0% | |
| 3 | Khalil London | G | So | 6'3" | 24-0 | 15.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 39.7% | 23.6% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 30.1% | |
| 7 | Jabrion Spikes | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-0 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 53.3% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 16.7% | |
| 23 | Kavien Jones | F | Fr | 6'7" | 30-0 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 60.3% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 44.4% | 13.0% | |
| 1 | Damon Howard Jr. | G | Fr | 6'1" | 21-0 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 32.2% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 77.8% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | JC Brooks | F | So | 6'10" | 18-1 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 47.8% | 28.6% | 0.4 | 60.0% | 14.4% | |
| 31 | Alex Garcia | F | Jr | 6'9" | 10-0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 43.8% | 16.7% | 0.6 | — | 23.2% | |
| 20 | Jayden Jones | G | Fr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 32.6% | |
| 21 | Jean Yvens Lafleur | F | Jr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 13.0% | |
| 5 | Maddux Bodenhamer | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Ogien Ayo | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Tennessee St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
5-5
Road
11-6
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +8.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
5-5
Road
8-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +1.1
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #2Iowa State | N | L 74–108 | +25.0 | L−9.0 | 147.5 | O182 | 94.4 | 137.7 | 78.4 |
| Mar 7 | Morehead St | N | W 93–67 | −5.0 | W+21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 133.2 | 96.0 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | UT Martin | N | W 68–55 | −2.0 | W+11.0 | 137.5 | U123 | 111.4 | 90.1 | 61.1 |
| Feb 28 | UT Martin | A | W 67–42 | +2.5 | W+27.5 | 143.5 | U109 | 101.5 | 63.6 | 66.0 |
| Feb 26 | SE Missouri | A | W 79–71 | +3.5 | W+11.5 | 152.0 | U150 | 107.3 | 96.4 | 73.6 |
| Feb 21 | SIUE | H | W 80–53 | −4.5 | W+22.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 125.6 | 83.2 | 63.7 |
| Feb 19 | Lindenwood | H | W 89–80 | −3.5 | W+5.5 | 159.0 | O169 | 112.2 | 100.9 | 79.3 |
| Feb 14 | Morehead St | A | L 86–94 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 124.3 | 135.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | S Indiana | A | W 73–71 | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 148.5 | U144 | 110.2 | 107.2 | 66.2 |
| Feb 7 | W Illinois | H | W 83–56 | −14.5 | W+12.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 121.9 | 82.3 | 68.1 |
South Florida
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-5
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +5.6
Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-18
Home
5-9
Road
7-5
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −9.3
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #6Louisville | N | L 79–83 | +4.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | O162 | 105.0 | 110.3 | 75.2 |
| Mar 15 | Wichita St | N | W 70–55 | −6.0 | W+9.0 | 150.5 | U125 | 102.6 | 80.6 | 68.2 |
| Mar 14 | Charlotte | N | W 86–64 | −15.5 | W+6.5 | 153.5 | U150 | 125.1 | 93.1 | 68.7 |
| Mar 8 | Charlotte | H | W 83–60 | −17.5 | W+5.5 | 155.5 | U143 | 125.9 | 91.0 | 65.9 |
| Mar 5 | Memphis | A | W 96–89 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 161.5 | O185 | 123.8 | 114.8 | 77.5 |
| Mar 1 | Tulane | H | W 90–62 | −15.0 | W+13.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 123.5 | 85.1 | 72.8 |
| Feb 25 | Rice | A | W 75–56 | −11.0 | W+8.0 | 157.0 | U131 | 107.8 | 80.5 | 69.6 |
| Feb 19 | Memphis | H | W 87–66 | −9.5 | W+11.5 | 163.5 | U153 | 124.2 | 94.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 15 | FAU | A | W 83–81 OT | −5.0 | L−3.0 | 166.5 | U164 | 108.3 | 105.7 | 76.6 |
| Feb 11 | Wichita St | A | W 66–58 | −2.0 | W+6.0 | 160.0 | U124 | 95.1 | 83.5 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTennessee StSouth Florida
Efficiency
109.4
114.7
108.3
103.3
70.3
71.0
—
—
Shooting
50.0%
50.6%
50.0%
52.0%
33.3%
32.5%
76.0%
74.6%
33.4%
40.4%
Ball control & glass
16.7%
15.1%
19.8%
19.1%
34.8%
38.1%
30.6%
31.9%
10.3%
8.6%
7.7%
13.1%
Style
30.7%
43.8%
45.1%
43.5%
18.3%
16.5%
45.5%
58.4%
29.7%
29.9%
Roster
3.38
3.18
6'3.7"
6'4.3"
61.6%
84.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTennessee St
Returning minutes: 61.6%Returning production: 51.9%
Lost
- Aaron Nkrumah 31.3 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Pitre 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
- Antoine Lorick III 21.5 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
- Maddux Bodenhamer no D1 minutes last season
- Ogien Ayo no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
South Florida
Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%
Lost
- Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
- De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.