Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction

Tue, Nov 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Thomas Assembly Center, Ruston, LA

Non-conferenceESPN+Thomas Assembly Center, Ruston, LA

Jax State

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #189

Louisiana Tech

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #228

Tue, Nov 17 · 7:30 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Louisiana Tech is the faster team (70.6, #187 of 365) and Jax State the slower (61.7, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.4

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#343

Jax State

68.5#307

Louisiana Tech

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Louisiana Tech has the ball−1.9

Jax State has the ball+3.7

Louisiana Tech has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 45.9% #258 · JXST allows 50.0% #163−2.5

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.7% #307 · JXST forces 11.7% #336 · ~11 turnovers+1.3

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 44.1% #95 · JXST allows 23.9% #38 · FT 67.3% #226−0.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · JXST allows 25.0% #61−0.3

Jax State has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 54.7% #115 · LT allows 50.8% #183+2.6

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.2% #186 · LT forces 14.9% #275 · ~10 turnovers+1.7

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.6% #294 · LT allows 39.5% #210 · FT 58.8% #323−0.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.3% #268 · LT allows 40.5% #318+0.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Jax Stateoffense vsLouisiana Techdefense

Share of shots by zone

Jax State shoots

15.1

7.5

18.9

58.5

Louisiana Tech allows

46.3

3.2

12.6

37.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	75.0%#14	61.4%#217	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	25.0%#250	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	20.0%#279	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	41.0%#54	28.8%#108	32.5%

Louisiana Techoffense vsJax Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Louisiana Tech shoots

39.0

7.8

14.3

39.0

Jax State allows

26.5

24.5

10.2

38.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.0%#146	53.8%#121	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	66.7%#322	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#151	60.0%#329	34.7%
Three	26.3%#274	18.5%#11	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Jax State

−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365

Off reb %

26.3%

#268

Def reb %

75.0%

#61

Turnover %

18.2%

#186

Forced TO %

11.7%

#336

FT rate

26.6%

#294

FT allowed

23.9%

#38

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+2.2

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−4.5

Foul shots drawn−2.8

Foul shots allowed+3.6

Louisiana Tech

−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#260 of 365

Off reb %

35.1%

#107

Def reb %

59.5%

#318

Turnover %

22.7%

#307

Forced TO %

14.9%

#275

FT rate

44.1%

#95

FT allowed

39.5%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding−3.0

Ball security−3.1

Forcing turnovers−2.3

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Jax State has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.2 (#225 of 365) to Louisiana Tech’s −5.8 (#260).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Jax State2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
1	G	Jr	6'5"	2-2	34.0	17.0	3.0	9.0	1.0	76.3%	64.3%	7.0	83.3%	20.7%	Active
2	G	Sr	6'5"	2-2	32.5	22.0	3.5	1.5	2.0	65.5%	41.7%	12.0	75.0%	33.4%	Active
6	G	Jr	6'5"	2-2	28.5	8.5	3.5	2.5	1.5	46.7%	0.0%	2.0	42.9%	21.5%	Active
3	F	So	6'7"	2-0	26.5	11.5	2.5	4.0	2.5	43.8%	35.7%	7.0	50.0%	34.5%	Active
10	F	So	6'8"	2-2	22.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	0.5	63.6%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	17.9%	Active
0	F	Sr	6'10"	2-0	17.5	5.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	71.4%	—	0.0	—	11.0%	Active
11	F	Fr	6'9"	2-2	15.0	5.0	5.5	0.0	0.0	70.0%	100.0%	0.5	75.0%	12.8%	Active
4	F	Jr	6'8"	2-0	12.0	8.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	116.7%	80.0%	2.5	100.0%	20.6%	Active
5	G	So	6'0"	2-0	10.0	1.5	2.0	1.5	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.2%	Active
8	G	Fr	5'11"	2-0	8.0	3.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	60.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	15.2%	Active
20	F	Fr	6'10"	1-0	14.0	12.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	71.4%	—	0.0	50.0%	33.7%	Missed last
12	G	Fr	6'5"	1-0	10.0	8.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	57.1%	33.3%	6.0	—	38.2%	Missed last
7	G	Fr	6'1"	1-0	9.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	2.0	100.0%	26.2%	Missed last
9	G	Fr	6'4"	1-0	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%	Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Jax State

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +2.0

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +23.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 5	South AlabamaAdjEM #216	A	L 80–83 2OT	+5.0	W+2.0	139.5	O163	103.8	107.7	77.1
Nov 2	LaGrange Panthers	H	W 123–59	—	—	—	—	147.2	70.6	83.6
Mar 10	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	N	L 63–68	+1.5	L−3.5	142.0	U131	98.1	105.9	64.2
Mar 7	UTEPAdjEM #243	A	W 64–61	+1.0	W+4.0	139.0	U125	95.6	91.1	67.0
Mar 5	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	A	L 75–77 OT	+6.0	W+4.0	145.5	O152	98.8	101.5	75.9
Feb 28	LibertyAdjEM #145	H	L 78–81	+4.0	W+1.0	139.0	O159	122.8	127.5	63.5
Feb 26	DelawareAdjEM #258	H	W 80–70 OT	−7.5	W+2.5	134.0	O150	119.8	104.8	66.8
Feb 21	Sam HoustonAdjEM #123	A	L 78–82	+7.5	W+3.5	148.5	O160	115.7	121.6	67.4
Feb 18	Louisiana TechAdjEM #228	A	L 71–77	+2.0	L−4.0	133.0	O148	101.1	109.6	70.2
Feb 14	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	H	L 70–79	−2.5	L−11.5	140.5	O149	106.3	119.9	65.9

Louisiana Tech

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +2.2

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +3.8

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	LSUAdjEM #26	A	L 50–90	+29.5	L−10.5	147.5	U140	68.1	122.6	73.4
Nov 5	Arkansas Monticello Boll Weevils	H	W 76–17	—	—	—	—	125.1	28.0	60.8
Nov 2	Kent StateAdjEM #174	H	W 85–75	+5.0	W+15.0	145.0	O160	125.3	110.5	67.8
Mar 14	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	N	L 60–71	−1.0	L−12.0	142.0	U131	93.1	110.1	64.5
Mar 13	Missouri StAdjEM #188	N	W 69–66	+1.0	W+4.0	135.0	P135	121.4	116.1	56.8
Mar 12	MTSUAdjEM #241	N	W 80–69	+2.0	W+13.0	133.5	O149	120.6	104.0	66.3
Mar 7	DelawareAdjEM #258	A	W 81–38	−2.0	W+41.0	132.5	U119	128.5	60.3	63.0
Mar 5	LibertyAdjEM #145	A	W 76–71	+8.5	W+13.5	139.0	O147	127.1	118.8	59.8
Feb 28	FIUAdjEM #191	H	L 76–84	−2.0	L−10.0	146.0	O160	109.2	120.7	69.6
Feb 26	Missouri StAdjEM #188	H	W 72–70	−2.5	L−0.5	137.0	O142	108.4	105.4	66.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Jax StateLouisiana Tech

Efficiency

103.6

101.5

105.4

105.6

67.5

68.5

-3.4

8.5

Shooting

54.7%

45.9%

44.0%

49.3%

41.0%

26.3%

58.8%

67.3%

26.6%

44.1%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

22.7%

11.7%

14.9%

26.3%

35.1%

25.0%

40.5%

9.1%

15.6%

0.0%

6.8%

Style

60.9%

34.2%

27.5%

45.9%

17.5%

13.3%

74.1%

50.0%

41.2%

42.7%

Roster

2.59

2.58

6'6"

6'4.4"

0.0%

10.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Jax State

Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%

Lost

Jacoby Hill 30.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil 29.9 mpg, 19.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
AC Bryant 26.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaye Nash 25.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to UConn
Emondrek Erkins-Ford 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to Western KY
Iaroslav Niagu 18.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Colorado

Added

Jordan Stiemke from Loyola MD · 27.5 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
Chris Lockett Jr. from Jacksonville · 24.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Ma'Shy Hill from Abilene Chrstn · 10.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
Naas Cunningham from UNLV · 8.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
Leon Horner from Texas Tech · 6.1 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
Brandon Walker from Mississippi St · 5.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Louisiana Tech

Returning minutes: 10.0%Returning production: 7.1%

Lost

AJ Bates 33.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Utah State
DJ Dudley 30.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg · transferred to New Mexico St
Avery Thomas II 24.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
Kaden Cooper 22.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to East Carolina
Scooter Williams 17.4 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Will Allen 15.4 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ethan Blackmon new to D1 · 23.0 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
Jay Tyler no D1 minutes last season
Linwood Rowe no D1 minutes last season
Kyran Tilley no D1 minutes last season
Izuchukwu Emelife no D1 minutes last season
James Sanderson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Feb 18	2025-26	Jax State 71 – 77 Louisiana Tech
Sat, Jan 17	2025-26	Louisiana Tech 60 – 64 Jax State

More games on Tue, Nov 17

Hofstra vs Murray St · 12:00 PM ET
Rutgers vs Houston · 2:00 PM ET
Notre Dame vs Florida · 4:30 PM ET
Marist at Army · 6:00 PM ET
Liberty vs S Illinois · 6:00 PM ET
Saint Peter's at UMass Lowell · 6:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at Purdue · 6:30 PM ET
W Carolina at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
Sacred Heart at Providence · 7:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
Illinois at Duke · 7:00 PM ET
Ball State at Florida St · 7:00 PM ET
Villanova at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
Bowling Green at William & Mary · 7:00 PM ET
C Michigan at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
Fordham at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
Tennessee St at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
Wagner at Saint Joseph's · 7:00 PM ET
CSU Northridge at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
Norfolk St at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
ETSU at Marshall · 7:00 PM ET
Lehigh at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
Rider at Miami · 7:00 PM ET
Mississippi St at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
Green Bay at West Florida · 7:00 PM ET
Akron at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
Charlotte at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
Kennesaw St at Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
Bryant at UMass · 7:30 PM ET
Arkansas vs Indiana · 7:30 PM ET
FIU at UAB · 7:30 PM ET
MD Eastern at DePaul · 8:00 PM ET
Oral Roberts at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
Le Moyne at Evansville · 8:00 PM ET
MTSU at GA Southern · 8:00 PM ET
Texas A&M-CC at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
Bellarmine at Illinois St · 8:00 PM ET
E Illinois at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
Lamar at Omaha · 8:00 PM ET
Lindenwood at Northern Iowa · 8:00 PM ET
UT Arlington at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
E Washington at Utah · 8:30 PM ET
Sam Houston at Wyoming · 8:30 PM ET
Nicholls at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
Michigan St at Tennessee · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at UC Davis · 9:00 PM ET
Old Dominion at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
UNLV vs Kansas · 9:30 PM ET
Seattle U at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
UC Irvine at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
Montana St at Gonzaga · 11:00 PM ET
West Virginia vs Auburn · 11:59 PM ET
Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · TBD

← Mon, Nov 16 · Wed, Nov 18 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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