CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJohn Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
Old Dominion
Efficiency #242
2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf
@
Virginia
Efficiency #15
2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · TBD
65.9
win 7%
Projected
83.4
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: UVA −17.4 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Old Dominion 69.4 → 68.2 possessions
−0.3
Virginia offense vs Old Dominion defense
+7.4
Old Dominion offense vs Virginia defense
−6.1
Projected total
149.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia offense vs Old Dominion defense
+7.4
Old Dominion offense vs Virginia defense
+6.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Virginia by 17.4
17.4
Old Dominion side ◂▸ Virginia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.2 against a projected 149.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Old Dominion is the faster team (70.3, #83 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.3
model
Projected team totals
65.9 / 83.4
Old Dominion / Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#94
Old Dominion
67.1#278
Virginia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
DefenseVirginia
Virginia's shot-blocking
Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 15.6% of Old Dominion's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageOld Dominion
Where Old Dominion struggles: shooting
Old Dominion shoots an effective 50.7% (#203); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageVirginia
Where Virginia scores: the offensive glass
Virginia rebounds 37.9% of its own misses (#9); Old Dominion lets opponents grab 30.3% of their own misses (#176). Expect about 35.6%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversVirginia
Virginia protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Virginia's offense.
GlassOld Dominion
Old Dominion gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Old Dominion's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia, Virginia's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Old Dominion at about 35.8% of its shots from three, Virginia about 43.3%.
Old Dominion has the ball
OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #203
45.7% #8
-4.5 pt/100
15.4% #100
15.4% #255
+2.0 pt/100
26.0% #323
29.2% #120
-2.2 pt/100
34.7% #189
32.9% #129
-0.2 pt/100
73.3% #161
—
+0.1 pt/100
Old Dominion net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100
Virginia has the ball
OffenseOld Dominion allowsvs D1 avg
54.6% #49
50.8% #145
+2.4 pt/100
16.0% #140
14.5% #323
+2.3 pt/100
37.9% #9
30.3% #176
+3.2 pt/100
32.3% #253
42.0% #322
+0.4 pt/100
72.8% #177
—
+0.0 pt/100
Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Old Dominionoffense vsVirginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Old Dominion shoots
Virginia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.0%#11750.9%#758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.8%#31838.6%#15039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.0%#29035.7%#9738.0%
Three36.0%#6031.6%#4633.7%
Virginiaoffense vsOld Dominiondefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia shoots
Old Dominion allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.6%#10561.6%#29058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.3%#5928.6%#939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16440.5%#25738.0%
Three36.2%#4832.0%#6233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Old Dominion
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#326 of 365
Off reb %
26.0%
#323
Def reb %
69.7%
#176
Turnover %
15.4%
#100
Forced TO %
14.5%
#323
FT rate
34.7%
#189
FT allowed
42.0%
#322
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Virginia
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#9
Def reb %
70.8%
#120
Turnover %
16.0%
#140
Forced TO %
15.4%
#255
FT rate
32.3%
#253
FT allowed
32.9%
#129
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.6

Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Old Dominion’s −3.8 (#326).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Old Dominion2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Jordan BattleGSr6'2"33-3332.815.44.43.02.054.1%43.5%5.685.0%25.0%
0KC ShawGSr6'4"29-2931.216.84.32.22.146.9%8.7%0.872.3%33.6%
6LJ ThomasGSr6'2"30-2527.611.33.63.32.048.2%29.0%1.074.5%26.0%
4Robert Davis Jr.GJr6'6"26-2029.69.62.51.41.144.7%33.0%6.981.5%21.7%
13Jared TurnerFJr6'8"33-520.96.13.60.90.456.5%38.2%4.464.3%15.5%
35Caelum Swanton-RodgerFSr7'0"31-3120.58.24.90.81.463.3%0.0%0.158.9%22.0%
2Zacch WigginsGFr6'4"33-1018.66.12.51.10.654.7%37.3%1.571.2%17.8%
3Scottie HubbardGSo6'6"32-916.03.12.90.50.745.8%32.4%2.175.0%14.0%
7Drew McKennaGSo6'7"26-011.04.02.50.50.545.3%25.0%1.176.2%23.2%
8Donovan RaymondFSo6'10"31-26.51.51.40.20.366.7%—0.045.8%13.4%
42Ben NaceyFSo6'8"9-07.62.31.60.30.158.3%—0.058.3%15.4%
11Rieco HellamsGJr5'10"12-02.80.30.30.30.225.0%0.0%0.1100.0%12.0%
30Cooper JonesGJr6'2"3-14.71.00.00.31.030.0%20.0%1.7—33.1%
15CJ ParkerGSo6'6"3-03.30.02.00.30.00.0%0.0%0.3—5.7%
10Elijah FlowersFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Stephaun WalkerFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Old DominionVirginia
Efficiency
106.9
117.4
110.4
101.2
69.4
67.1
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
54.6%
48.8%
54.9%
36.0%
36.2%
73.3%
72.8%
34.7%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
16.0%
14.5%
15.4%
26.0%
37.9%
30.3%
29.2%
9.2%
9.6%
11.1%
10.0%
Style
36.2%
46.7%
40.5%
40.8%
12.1%
14.1%
49.0%
58.3%
31.6%
38.2%
Roster
3.17
2.24
6'5.3"
6'6"
—
72.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Old Dominion
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Virginia
Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%
Lost
  • Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.